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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« on: May 01, 2012, 11:11:40 PM »

Author's Note: I'll be simultaneously working on this and "Paradigm Shift." This idea came to me the other night. It's a little silly, but should be fun. I'll be alternating between the two.

Nobody expected one single state to be such a breadbasket of presidential candidates, especially over the course of nearly half a century. Perhaps it was the difficulty of managing a state of rapid economic and political growth, coupled with some charismatic luck, that made its politicians juggernauts in the political arena. To think it all started with a simple vice presidential pick...
-Excerpt from Historian Newt Gingrich's The Golden State

The Democratic Vice Presidential nominee for the 1964 election...



Governor Pat Brown
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2012, 05:52:17 PM »

Why does everyone have Newt as a historian in atls?  It's a great start, but I don't understand.  Was he a professor?

Gingrich was a history professor and will still lecture from time to time. He's an easy historian to create and it make him a more exalted and honorable figure, in addition to adding butterflies for TLs.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2012, 06:19:50 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2012, 06:23:47 PM by Nagas »

Brown was a solid pick for President Johnson. He was a popular Democratic governor in a state that had a long Republican streak, especially on the local level. He was an energetic and effective campaigner, dispatched by the Johnson campaign throughout the Southwest. While Johnson's victory was assured, as he had successfully painted Goldwater as an extremist early in the campaign, his presence helped increase Democratic turnout throughout the region, which was a boon down ballot. - Robert Caro's The Years of Lyndon Johnson


The 1964 Election:



President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/Governor Pat Brown (D-CA) - 491 Electoral Votes, 62.2%
Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ)/Congressman William Miller (R-NY) - 47 Electoral Votes, 37.2%
Others - 0 Electoral Votes, 0.6%


Democrats were able to pick up four seats in the Senate, commanding an unprecedented majority of 70 seats. Montoya was expected to win in New Mexico and Robert Kennedy was a sure thing in New York, but the boost in Democratic turnout enabled Senator Salinger to keep his seat by a narrow 50.6-49.4% margin in California. Salinger's win was possible only with the gravitas Brown brought to the ticket. The win was good for the Democrats but even better for Brown; Salinger was Brown's appointee. Governor Fannin lost to Roy Elson in an upset by an even smaller margin: 50.1-49.9%; a margin of 1,312 votes out of over 500,000 cast.

Democrats also received a nice bump in the house. With a large mandate in the legislative and presidential elections, the Democrats were ready to lead.



Senate
Democrats (+4) - 70 Seats
Republicans (-4) - 30 Seats

House
Democrats (+38) - 296 Seats
Republicans (-38) - 139 Seats


With Brown's ascendancy to the Vice Presidency. Lt. Governor Glenn M. Anderson is now the 33rd Governor of California.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2012, 06:22:30 PM »

Author's Note: As the story continues to diverge from the OTL, presidential elections will become more drawn out and exciting. The story will move quickly until 1968.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2012, 11:43:04 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2012, 11:44:59 PM by Nagas »

Goldy loses AZ!? Angry (FTR, I get why he does, but that doesn't make me any happier)

Well, I don't think the Senate seat could flip while Barry holds AZ in the general. While he did suffer a narrow loss against LBJ, he'll be holding on to his Senate seat for awhile. He'll be a big influence on a later California Senator. Wink And you can't win them all, unfortunately. Tongue
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2012, 07:48:06 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2012, 09:50:29 PM by Nagas »

The war in Vietnam slowly took it's toll on the American people, and opposition increased. The most adamant protest occurred in the cities and universities across America; California was no exception. However, California was not prepared for the spark that would light the keg.

On April 12, 1966, Noble Peace Prize winner Ralph Bunche spoke out at a rally at UCLA against the Draft and escalating the Vietnam War. As his speech reached its climax, the unthinkable happened: the bullet of an anarchist rang out of the crowd and struck Bunche square in the chest. He was pronounced dead on arrival to the hospital; he had simply lost too much blood.


Ralph Bunche - August 7, 1903 -  April 12, 1966

Pandemonium quickly ensured. Students and faculty at UCLA quickly took to the streets, joined by Black Americans throughout Western Los Angeles, who were angered at the loss of one of the most respectable members of their community. While the exact perpetrator is unknown, fires began to spark up in Lynwood and Inglewood, that spread and raged through the night. On April 13, Governor Anderson dispatched the national guard to restore order.

Governor Anderson underestimated the size and scope of the ensuing riot. The initial 3,000 dispatched national guard troops found themselves overwhelmed. By the 16th, over 27,000 national guard and police were on the ground attempting to quell the violence. The amount of rioters was estimated to be in excess of 68,000.



By the time the riots had been squashed on the 20th, 132 were dead, including a dozen students from the campus. 3,000+ injuries were reported, and property damage was estimated to be in the hundreds of millions. The fires raged for 2 more days, not being extinguished until the late evening on the 22nd. Parts of Western Los Angeles looked like a war zone.

The riots did not bode well for Governor Anderson, who was viewed at large to have mismanaged the response to the crisis. In early May, Los Angeles Mayor Sam Yorty and San Francisco Mayor John Shelley both announced their intentions to run against Anderson in the Democratic primary in June.

The California Republican party quickly scrambled to find a candidate that could win the governorship. On May 11, it appeared that they had found their man, when popular actor Ronald Reagan announced his intention to run for Governor.



"We will not let ourselves be ruled by these so called free speech advocates that run amok in the streets of Los Angeles, that cause injuries to the innocent and damage to private property. Governor Anderson has failed the first priority of any public servant: the safety of his constituents. We must restore peace to our state. It is time for law and order to be restored in the great state California! I look forward to your vote in June and again in November! Thank you! And God Bless America!"


After his announcement, it seemed that Reagan would win the primary against token opposition and crush any Democratic challenger in November. He, and many others, would be shocked when another man made his announcement two days later...
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2012, 08:31:44 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2012, 08:35:17 PM by Nagas »

"I told you I'd be back!"


"This was my chance. I had lost to then Governor Brown by a hair in 1962, and Governor Anderson was at his weakest point in his political career. No matter what Democrat won the nomination, it would have been a cakewalk. California needed experience to restore civility and if I could make it work there I could make it work anywhere in the nation. As Governor, I could create the solutions America would so desperately need in the coming years..." -Memoirs of Richard Nixon - Richard Nixon






Indeed, Nixon came through on his promise from four years earlier: "...this won't be the last time you'll see Richard Nixon!" at his election night concession in 1962. Nixon represented the establishment and old guard of California Republican party, contrasting sharply with the up-and-coming Reagan. Both men had higher ambitions, and sought to use the governorship to lead California and springboard to lofty places.

It was a battle of two Californian titans, locked in a tight race, and only one would emerge as the winner.

NBC Poll
900 Registered Republicans. May 19, 1966
MoE +/- 3.2%

Who do you support in the Republican primary?
Ronald Reagan: 43%
Richard Nixon: 41%
Other/Undecided: 16%
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2012, 08:36:12 PM »

"...I will not hesitate to deploy the national guard en masse if necessary to restore law and order to the streets of Berkeley and Los Angeles. Governor Anderson is the perfect example of what happens when you hesitate to keep the peace; furthermore, it will take months to fix all of the damage in Los Angeles from his Inglewood riots... It is these riots that clearly demonstrate the need for a man with experience, not a third-rate Hollywood actor!... The men in Hollywood have made it very clear that they want to further the agenda of this drug and riot craze..." - excerpts from a Nixon campaign stop in Orange, CA



Polling remained tight and within the margin of error between Nixon and Reagan. Fearing another narrow and bitter loss; one that could permanently ruin his political career, Nixon turned up the heat against Anderson and Reagan. He began running to Reagan's right on restoring order, and made it clear that he would do what it takes to establish it. Nixon's loss in 1962 had made him bitter, and he attacked anybody who he perceived as an opponent. Historian Newt Gingrich would later call his campaign "one of the dirtiest in American history. He had a very Machiavellian approach; he would do whatever it would take to win."
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2012, 08:54:28 PM »

California Primary - June 6, 1966
Democrats




Governor Glenn Anderson - 831,277 - 36.3%
Mayor Sam Yorty - 793,930 - 34.7%
Mayor John Shelley - 571,705 - 25.0%
Others - 92,381 - 4%


Returns initially favored Los Angeles Mayor Sam Yorty. Despite the opposition vote splitting from Mayor Shelley, it appeared he would eek out a narrow win over Governor Anderson. To the surprise of many, later returns from Northern California largely put him over the top. At 12:30AM, Governor Anderson was declared the winner of the primary. Despite his narrow win, it was apparent that he was a dead man walking. He was unpopular with his party and with the citizens of California at large.



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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2012, 10:31:15 PM »

Just read through this one (not sure how I had missed it before). Well-written and interesting. Always thought a Nixon-Reagan battle in '66 for GOP nod in CA would have been epic.

Thanks! Coming from one of my favorite TL-writers on the site, this means a lot. Smiley If you have any advice, I would gladly welcome it.

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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2012, 06:43:09 PM »

Republicans


Vice President Richard Nixon - 1,129,900 - 51.2%
Mr. Ronald Reagan - 1,061,875 - 48.2%
Others - 12,318 - 0.6%

Nixon took an early lead in the polls. As returns came in, the margin would fluctuate but Nixon would hold his lead over Reagan. His no holds barred campaign was successful, and he was able to triumph over the charismatic Reagan. His strategy was not without its weaknesses; Reagan won over moderates in the primary, who told exit pollers that they felt "Nixon would go to lengths too extreme for California."




Reagan address supporters at the Biltmore Hotel in Los Angeles

"... I would like to thank everyone who supported our campaign over the past few weeks. The challenge facing our state is great and the stakes are high. I wish Mr. Nixon luck come November and with good grace restore peace and stability amicably between our dear communities. Thank you all, and God Bless America!"


"The defeat was a hard blow, but Reagan remained standing. He had gone toe to toe with what may have been the strongest political figure not just in California, but in the nation. Unlike Nixon, he wasn't damaged from the primary fight. The voters across the spectrum still had a highly favorable perception of Ronald Reagan, especially when he ended up as being perceived as the more moderate candidate. It was there in that Hotel that he decided that his loss to Nixon was not the end; it was just the beginning for Ronald Reagan." - The Golden State by Newt Gingrich



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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2012, 03:41:38 AM »
« Edited: May 31, 2012, 03:44:42 AM by Nagas »



Even before assuming their respective offices, Vice President Brown and Senator Robert Kennedy had coveted what was not only a political alliance but a deep friendship. As Governor, Brown had been an ardent supporter and strong friend of the late President John F. Kennedy. With his passing, the torch had been handed to Robert, and it still burned brightly.

Not popular with President Johnson, the Brown/Kennedy friendship allowed the Senator with a backdoor to interact with the President's inner circle and have knowledge of proposed Great Society legislation before it reached the halls of Congress. The exchanged worked in reverse as well: with the liberal wing of the Democratic party becoming wary of the war in Vietnam, Kennedy provided the administration with the knowledge of where key Senators stood on foreign affairs.

This information was invaluable for President Johnson, and was believed to have affected some of his war decisions. After returning from a visit to Vietnam in September of 1966 where he met with General Westmoreland, Johnson made a surprise announcement declaring that the General would be replaced with General Lewis Walt, effective January 1967.



Johnson declared that the change was to bring about a bottom-up approach to winning the war in Vietnam: “We can only win the war if we win the hearts of the citizens of Vietnam. We must not only contain the spread of Communism; we must contain the spread of death and destruction as well. General Walt is the perfect man for this job. His Combined Action Company program was not only innovative, but highly effective: Dozens of villages and hundreds of thousands of more Vietnamese are now safe due to his great thinking and effective leadership. I can think of no better man to lead us to victory in Vietnam.”

The announcement was a shock, but went over well with the liberal Democrats and the public at large. President Johnson saw his approval rating climb to a modest 54%, after hovering in the mid 40s for months prior. Walt was seen as a man who could maneuver the war to a peaceful conclusion, and clashed greatly with his "victory at all costs" predecessor.  Public opinion on the war was still negative but had temporarily stopped its fall in the polls.

Despite the seemingly good news, some close to Johnson felt that other unmentioned factors were in play behind his decision...

 
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2012, 07:22:00 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2012, 07:38:40 PM by Nagas »

1966 Midterms

President Johnson’s approval rating hovered in the high forties. The approval rating bump from announcing the replacement of General Westmoreland subsided and his decline began again, albeit more gradually compared to earlier in the year. As a result, the Democrats would take some losses in the midterms.

Popular surrogates for both sides barnstormed for various senatorial, gubernatorial and congressional candidates. Despite his earlier primary loss, Reagan would stump in for candidates such as Howard Baker in Tennessee, Robert Griffon in Michigan and Walter Peterson in New Hampshire. Vice President Brown found himself stumping throughout the West, appearing at rallies with Robert Duncan in Oregon. In Wyoming, Brown campaigned with Teno Roncalio, noted to be a friend and ardent supporter of the Kennedy clan. Members of both parties took note of such support; some pundits believed that the candidates swung the outcomes of close races.

While a member of the Johnson administration, Brown’s approvals were not as impacted. He never fell below 50% approval in the eyes of the voters. This enabled him to stump on Johnson's behalf.

Senate



Democrats: 66 (-4)
Republicans: 34 (+4)

House

Democrats: 252 (-43)
Republicans: 183 (+43)

Republicans picked up Tennessee and Illinois by large margins. In Michigan, Griffon was able to defeat the ailing Senator McNamara by a modest six points, despite the polls predicting a toss-up on election day. All other seats held by the respective parties were won with large margins.


Democrats were able to pick up one seat in Wyoming, where Rep. Roncalio squeaked by with 50.3% of the vote.


In Oregon, Hatfield won a narrow victory: 50.2-49.6% over Representative Duncan. Brown and Kennedy both stumped for Duncan, but it wasn’t enough. The moderate Oregonian persevered.


In New Hampshire, the moderate dove, Peterson, triumphed over incumbent Senator McIntyre, an ardent Johnson hawk by a 51-48% margin.


In California, Nixon triumphed over Governor Anderson by a margin of 55-43%. However, this was much narrower than pundits and polls predicted, which routinely gave Nixon in excess of 60% of the vote. Exit polling indicated that many Democrats and independents were turned off by Nixon's rhetoric, fearing that he was too extreme.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2012, 12:10:57 AM »

Did Shelley campaign as the liberal alternative?  How did Anderson govern?  Or did he not have enough popular support and time in office to do much (a la David Paterson)?  Sorry for all the questions, but one last one: what's John Shell doing?

Great TL man Wink

Shelley was a liberal alternative while Yates was more moderate and perceived as more electable in the general against either Nixon or Reagan. Anderson governed similar to Brown as OTL, but his inept handling of the Inglewood and Berkeley riots in the Spring/Summer of '66 left him in a position similar to Paterson. Mayor Shelley opted out of running for a second term and has opted to retire from politics.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2012, 09:08:37 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2012, 10:49:45 PM by Nagas »

The 1968 election began to take shape in early 1967. For the Republicans, it seemed that unless a popular candidate that could unite the various wings of the party came forward, a divisive, or at the very-least: protracted, primary could result. Despite the President's approval rating hovering in the low 40s, it seemed that he would run for reelection, despite the strong headwinds before him and the Democrats.

Senator Wayne Morse, an anti-war advocate who had voted against the Gulf of Tonkin resolution, took it upon himself to seek out an anti-war Democrat to challenge President Johnson in the primary. He first proposed the idea of running to Senator Robert F. Kennedy, who flat out declined his proposal. He then sought out Senator George McGovern of South Dakota, who readily agreed. In September, McGovern declared his candidacy and began barnstorming through New Hampshire and Wisconsin, the first primary states in the Democratic primaries.


Senator McGovern announcing his bid, declaring to run on an anti-Vietnam platform

However, President Johnson's reelection campaign never surfaced. The media would not be informed until after his retirement why he chose to not seek another term.

"I have no doubt that President Johnson, an ambitious man who craved power, would have sought another term if he was able. However, natural forces would conspire against him and prevent him from doing so. On September 29, 1967, Johnson would collapse in the oval office during a meeting with Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara. The stress from Vietnam, the Six Day War, and the prospect from a competitive election coming up was taking its toll on him.

He would confide to McNamara after he  helped him back to his feet, that he "[didn't] think [he] could make it through another term, even with the good graces of God." Johnson would back Vice President Brown, but had him delay the announcement until late January to keep the media guessing. To Brown's disadvantage, Johnson kept him in the dark about his ailing health and intention to not seek another term as well. "
- Robert Caro's The Years of Lyndon Johnson


Nixon mused for several weeks in the early summer of '67 over a presidential run.

In early September, Governor Nixon announced at a press conference that he would not be a candidate for the 1968 election: "I have a state to lead and was elected to serve the fair citizens of California. I cannot abandon my constituents in such a turbulent time."

Other factors were at play behind Nixon's decision to opt out. His handling of the Berkeley riots in April, 1967 was successful; no lives were lost, although shots were fired into the air by the national guard and many students accused the law enforcement of "excessive police brutality." His approval rating sat at 52%; while high, he feared he would be caught in a political boondoggle if another riot were to occur in 1968, under his watch. Nor did he desire to be painted as politically expedient.

The moderate, generally anti-war faction of the Republican party put up two candidates: Governor George Romney of Michigan and Governor Nelson Rockefeller of New York. Romney advocated a quick peace and speedy withdrawal from Vietnam. Rockefeller was more ambiguous on the issue, declaring that a hard-line stance against Communism must be maintained but a conclusion to the war in Vietnam was necessary.


Governor Romney (R-MI) and Governor Rockefeller (R-NY), both decided to run in 1968.

Taking up the banner for the pro-war faction of the Republican party, was none other than General Westmoreland, former commander of US military operations in Vietnam.


Westmoreland believed that total victory in the war in Vietnam was a possible outcome.

Westmoreland had been silent since his replacement by General Walt, but in that silence he privately brooded his apprehension against President Johnson. In October, he declared his candidacy and struck out at Johnson with a sharp venom: "The President has opted to choose defeat over victory; communism over democracy; death over life for our dear American soldiers in Vietnam. His refusal to put more men on the ground in Vietnam has created an understaffed and overwhelmed force that loses dozens by the day. His cowardice turned what was a definite victory into a certain and embarrassing defeat. When I was in command, we were winning this war! By electing me as President, we'll win this war expediently and for good!"


National NBC Polling for the Nominations, October 20, 1967
Democrats
President Johnson: 63%
Senator McGovern: 21%
Other/Undecided: 16%

Republicans
General Westmoreland: 29%
Governor Rockefeller: 28%
Governor Romney: 23%
Other/Undecided: 20%
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2012, 10:20:37 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2012, 10:23:05 PM by Nagas »

1. Since this is focused on CA, what happened with the 1967 special House race? Was Pete McCloskey elected, or was there a different outcome, say, us getting a Congresswoman Shirley Temple Black?

2. From what I know, Romney was originallyeant to run as "Rockefeller's candidate". As both are openly running against each other from the beginning, has any big dynamic changed?

3. Will any other major GOP candidates step up? Say, John Tower or Jim Rhodes?

Personally, I'd see a Rocky/Agnew, a Romney/Hatfield, or a Tower/Agnew ticket as making fir a quite interesting race. After all, ol' Spiro originally headed the committee to draft Rocky & they were good friends before '68.

1. McCloskey is reelected. I have plans for him. Smiley The 1968 Senate race will be covered in the middle of primary season.

Also, while I plan to have California and its politicians play a pivotal and central role, I am branching out. California politicians cannot hold the White House indefinitely Tongue (although as alluded to in the original post, a California-borne and/or raised will be present in most elections (if not them, one of their prodigies). I've been flushing out a comprehensive and complicated (if I dare say?) timeline. The outline that I've sketched out (and is susceptible to change) currently reaches out to ~1980 but I plan to go to 2012/2016.

2. I want to create a Republican primary that is the antithesis of OTL. Instead of one front runner that is constantly trying to prevent being dislodged, I want it highly competitive and in the air. Romney is the McCarthy of the primary, wanting a quick end to the war, while Rockefeller is more pragmatic about the whole thing. They each represent their own spheres of the moderate/liberal wing.

3. I've been debating Tower. Rhodes will definitely be present as a favorite son.

I have an interesting 1968 election planned out; I think it will be enjoyable. Smiley

I really hope to see Barry back in his seat come 1968....

Barry Goldwater? He is still the Senior Senator for Arizona. Senator Elson is the Junior Senator.

And thank you both for your questions/interests! And good luck and good writing on your respective TLs!
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2012, 06:38:01 PM »

General Election Polling: October, 1967

Legend
Dark Red: Strong Democrat
Pink: Leans Democrat
Grey: Toss-Up
Light Blue: Leans Republican
Dark Blue: Strong Republican



Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY) v President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)

PV: 44 - 41
EV: 238 - 123



General William Westmoreland (R-SC) v President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)

PV: 43 - 43
EV:196 - 180
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2012, 03:10:04 AM »

Throughout the winter of 1967/1968, Communist forces had been traveling the Ho Chi Minh trail and shoring up their reserves throughout South Vietnam. Intelligence gathered suggested that a large move was immanent, although the specifics were not clear.

General Walt maintained most troops deployments throughout South Vietnam, despite evidence that there may be strikes against high priority targets. He believed that the North Vietnamese would attempt to recapture the countryside, which was slowly shifting toward the Allies, and did not have the organizational capacity to strike against multiple high priority targets with a large amount of force.

On January 30, 1968, during a declared ceasefire, the Viet Cong attacked. Hardest hit was Saigon, where a last minute decision by the Allies to not redeploy battalions from the Cambodian border to Saigon proved to be a destructive error. Many portions of the city lay occupied by the end of the day on January 31. Half of the US Embassay was destroyed and was occupied for most of the day. It was not until the evening when Marines were landed on the roof and retook the building. Twelve civilian Americans were killed in the attack.

Allied forces were rallied by General Walt quickly thereafter. All orders of leave were temporarily suspended and troops were redeployed from the countryside to urban areas and high priority locations. The attack, which would be dubbed the Tet Offensive in the media, was technically a failure for the Viet Cong: despite taking some of their objectives for a few days, all land that they gained was lost within a week. Their causalities were significantly higher than allied forces.  However, it broke American morale at home. The Embassy, a symbol of American power and sovereign soil, had been breached, occupied, and desecrated by an invading force. The progress that it seemed that General Walt was making, seemed to amass for nothing. Despite the fact that the rate of Americans dying was half of his predecessor, the fact that the Viet Cong were able to amass such a force shattered the will of many to continue the war.

Public support for the war fell through the floor. Johnson's approval rating stood at a measly 40%. On February 8, President Johnson announced in a national address: "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."

Four days later, at a press conference in Griffith Park overlooking Los Angeles, Vice President Brown announced his intention to run for President of the United States.  Despite calls by Democrats for Senator Robert Kennedy to run for the now seemingly wide open nomination, he would dash all hopes two days later, where he would appear at a rally in New York City endorsing his friend and political ally. Many establishment Democrats, including Mayor Richard Daley, quickly backed the Vice President, hoping to coalesce support and prevent a bitter primary that could expose the widening cracks in the New Deal Coalition that had sprung from the Vietnam War.

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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2012, 05:13:08 PM »

1968 Primaries



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Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
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« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2012, 11:30:41 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2012, 01:48:55 AM by Nagas »

Senator McGovern barnstormed through New Hampshire in the weeks preceding the Democratic primary. McGovern would frequently be met with large crowds of enthusiastic supporters upon visiting various college towns. The youth resonated with McGovern and for good reason: he promised to sign peace with North Vietnam within six months of taking office and ending the draft. His supporters would frequently shout at rallies "Forge peace with George!"

The Vice President largely ignored the nation's first primary, instead opting to solidify his support with various labor groups and party leaders, especially those in non-primary states. The bulk of real delegates in the Democratic nomination weren't available through primaries, but were controlled by various party bosses such as Mayor Daley. McGovern's chances of corralling these delegates was next to nil. His hope was to win enough delegates and support in the primaries to force Brown to accept an anti-war plank to the party platform, or by some miracle, hold him under 50% of the delegates.

General Westmoreland made few visits to New Hampshire, largely due to the fact that Rockefeller was likely to win and he himself was a poor fit for the state's more dovish stance on Vietnam. Instead, Romney and Rockefeller campaigned throughout the state. Rockefeller's small lead in the polls was canceled out when Senator Peterson endorsed Romney, accusing Rockefeller of being "too dodgy on his position of withdrawal in Vietnam. He isn't being pragmatic; he's being opportunistic to win over voters!"

New Hampshire Primary

Democrats



Vice President Edmund Brown (D-CA): 26,120, 48.4%
Senator George McGovern (D-SD): 25,663, 47.6%
Others (including President Johnson, Senator Robert Kennedy): 2,117, 4%

Republicans



Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY): 32,220, 36.9%
Governor George Romney (R-MI): 30,715, 35.2%
General William Westmoreland (R-SC): 21,313, 24.4%
Others: 3,102, 3.5%

The New Hampshire Primary was a night of suspense for both parties. The Democratic primary was uncalled by the media until midnight, when Concord precincts came in heavily to clinch it for Brown. Senator McGovern had come within one percentage point of defeating an entrenched incumbent Vice President, which was viewed as a victory by his supporters.


McGovern speaking at his press conference as precincts stood at 60.1%, the race still undecided.

"We still don't know who won tonight's vote in the primary, but we do know that the forces of peace have scored a victory regardless tonight. The voters of New Hampshire have sent a clear message that they are not lockstep with maintaining this administration's quagmire in Vietnam. America is waking up and realizing that this war has no profit and only costs us dollars and lives by the day. We have shown that we can go head-to-head with the establishment and shake them to their foundations! We have the momentum now! Onto Wisconsin! Onto Chicago!"

Vice President Brown, looking to downplay the near upset, congratulated McGovern on his impressive performance, but surreptitiously and quickly booked some campaign events throughout Wisconsin. Polling in the subsequent days showed McGovern leading 59-38%.

For the Republicans, the race was called earlier but still remained tight. Rockefeller's win put the brakes on the surge Romney had received from Senator Peterson's endorsement. The boost Romney had received was partly undone by his performance on the campaign trail: Romney would frequently become inarticulate or make small gaffes. On March 10 in Portsmouth, he announced that "withdrawal from Vietnam would be done on American terms and have no set timeline," yet six hours later in Dover he declared that "withdrawal of all American forces will be done within a year." Still, despite the narrow loss, Romney was leading Westmoreland and Rockefeller in Wisconsin polling.

The other "winner" was General Westmoreland. Despite polling in the mid-teens all of February, he ended up with nearly a quarter of the vote.

"The fact that I was under-polled in New Hampshire is clear evidence that support for the war in Vietnam is still present among many Americans. They want us to win, and with God as my witness, if I'm in charge, that's what we're going to do." - Westmoreland, speaking in an interview on March 13.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2012, 05:37:37 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2012, 05:40:39 PM by Nagas »

As I recall, NH was actually pretty pro-war. What McCarthy did was do very well in turnout.
Well, that would explain Westmoreland's boost. Wink McGovern was an effective campaigner in NH, whereas Rocky benefited from a regional effect and Romney from Senator Peterson.

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After reading your TL I do plan to have him make an appearance, although I'm not sure about 1968. Smiley Probably 1972 or 1976.

I am excited to see the results for the rest of the primaries. Also, what is George Wallace up too?

The next update will answer your question. Wink Wisconsin will probably come with that update too.

Also, does anybody happen to have a blank map of all the counties in the United States? I'll be producing a national county map for the primaries at their conclusion (15 primaries makes it easy).
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« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2012, 01:29:43 AM »
« Edited: June 12, 2012, 01:34:10 AM by Nagas »

March 17, 1968

The 1968 Campaign took a massive twist when former Alabama Governor George C. Wallace announced his third party bid on the American Independence Party ticket. Many factors were at play behind Wallace's bid: he wanted to maintain segregation in the South and put an end to federal busing. Wallace desired a return to what he called "law and order" throughout the United States and a set time table on Vietnam. The lack of an apparent strong social conservative  present in the race was another factor that pulled Wallace in.

He knew that his chances at the Presidency were a long shot at best, but an overall victory was not his goal. Instead, he looked to Storm Thurmond's candidacy against Truman and Dewey 20 years prior: if he could take enough electoral votes to keep the Republicans and Democrats below 270, he could play kingmaker. By negotiating with the candidates, he could agree to tell his electors to side with a candidate in exchange for the end of federal busing and intervention in the South.

Wallace would find himself popular among younger, white men throughout the country. To his pleasant surprise, his rhetoric would be effective even outside of the South; lower and middle-class whites across the nation would take interest in Wallace's candidacy. He was a formidable foe, attractive to constituencies in both parties.


Wallace announced his bid at the University of Alabama; at the same spot where he "Stood in the Schoolhouse Door."

"Almost five years ago, I stood here in defiance of the massive federal overreach to integrate our schools by force. Today, the federal government's malignant influence is at its worst yet. It tramples over state's rights and takes the powers of choice and responsibility away from the individual. No more! It's time to get the federal government out of our states' education systems and out of our cities! We must return power to the states!

Why did I not run as a Democrat you may ask? Because you can take all the Democratic candidates for President and all the Republican candidates for President. Put them in a sack and shake them up. Take the first one that falls out, grab him by the nape of the neck, and put him right back in the sack. Because there is not a dime's worth of difference in any of them!

Both parties refuse to acknowledge what's needed most in our country: law and order in our cities! The working man cannot walk to work in safety, nor his wife ride the transit system nor go to the supermarket. Nor can you walk in the neighborhood because these anarchists they kowtow to--both national parties, the members of both national parties--and the National Democrats and the National Republicans have their sails up to encourage the movement that dominates in our cities and makes it unsafe to walk on our streets. As President, I will not let this continue for another day!"
-excerpts from Wallace's announcement

Wisconsin Primary

In the last weeks of March, Vice President Brown found himself in Milwaukee and its suburbs, hoping to drive up one of his strongest constituencies: urban voters. He was handicapped on the Vietnam issue; due to Johnson, he could not come out explicitly with in favor of a peace plan. He did not want to risk angering Johnson and having him turn the party machinery to one of his more loyal supporters.

Senator McGovern was boosted with the endorsement and subsequent campaigning of Senator Eugene McCarthy, one of Johnson's harshest critics and an ardent dove on Vietnam.


McCarthy would be one of McGovern's strongest surrogates on the campaign trail.

"Vice President Brown will only continue President Johnson's failed policy of violence and aggrandizement in the Vietnam War! The clear choice is Senator McGovern, who will end this was expediently and honorably! Forge peace with George!" McCarthy stumping for McGovern in Madison

Governor Romney held a 15 point lead on Rockefeller in the days following the New Hampshire primary, but again, small gaffes on the campaign trail seemed to eat away at his lead. To add to his woes, General Westmoreland campaigned vigorously and was endorsed by Governor Knowles, a former lieutenant in the Navy. Stories of Rockefeller's adultery began floating around local newspapers again; Rockefeller would accuse Westmoreland of underhanded campaigning. He would deny all allegations. Heading into the polls, Romney held a tenuous lead in the Badger State.

Democrats




Vice President Edmund Brown (D-CA) 325,169 - 44.9%
Senator George McGovern (D-SD) - 387,268 - 53.4%
Others - 12,568, 1.7%

Republicans




Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY): 162,536, 27.1%
Governor George Romney (R-MI): 207,650, 34.7%
General William Westmoreland (R-SC): 196,987, 32.9%
Others (incl Harold Stassen): 31,230, 6.3%

McGovern's victory in Wisconsin was a blow to Brown's campaign. He needed the victory to remain a contender and his prayers seemed to have been answered. McCarthy was credited with helping counterbalance Brown's campaigning in the state. Despite racking up a large lead in Milwaukee County, McGovern canceled it out with strong victories in many rural parts of the state, often exceeding 60% of the vote in them.


A triumphant McGovern basking in his victory with his supporters.

"The people of Wisconsin have spoken and sent a strong message to the President tonight! Are you listening President Johnson? Vice President Brown? Our voters want our soldiers to come safely home and peace to come to Vietnam! It's time to stop spending money ruining life in Vietnam and start spending that money on improving life at home. We shall continue to forge forward! Thank you Wisconsin, and God Bless America!"

McGovern's victory was more than an annoyance for the Brown campaign. If he scored more victories, he could prove divisive at the convention at a time where unity needed to be preserved. The hawks and doves could not become more antagonistic as Wallace made gains among Southern Democrats and labor workers. Brown would meet with Labor leaders in Pennsylvania to organize support; he could not afford another big loss, especially one in a swing state. He also planned with his campaign to organize loyal surrogates in several primary states; a popular Governor or Senator who could win and pledge his support to Brown at the convention.

On paper, Romney had won in Wisconsin; under Wisconsin's winner-take-all system all of the delegates were his, but the real winner had been General Westmoreland. Not only had he clearly come out ahead of Governor Rockefeller, he came close to defeating Governor Romney in a state neighboring Michigan. Granted, drudging up Rockefeller's adultery to stir up social conservative resentment, Governor Romney's frequent gaffes, and Governor Knowles's endorsement all aided Westmoreland in his near-upset. But that provided the spark for his campaign.

To Republicans, he now appeared as a viable candidate that could not only compete in the general, but one that could potentially win the war in Vietnam. He seemed like less of an ambitious MacArthur figure and more like a noble patriot. He catered so well to those who wanted to see American prestige persevered; to many Americans, a loss on the international stage would be unforgivable and a clear victory for the forces of communism.
-Lewis Gould's 1968: The Election that Changed America

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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2012, 07:42:33 PM »


On April 4, 1968, an assassination attempt was made on Martin Luther King. Jr in Memphis, Tennessee. By a stroke of luck, the assassin's bullet missed his head and only hit his left shoulder. He was helped back up to his feet by Jesse Jackson and rushed to St. Joseph's hospital, where the bullet was removed and wound patched without complication. A small riot broke out in Washington D.C, which prompted King to hold a press conference the next day.


In defiance of his would-be assassin, King gave a speech the next day

"Yesterday, an unknown attacker attempted to take my life in an act of violence. I do not know what motivated his heinous act, but I know that I still stand here today in defiance of his actions. The quest for civil rights is not yet over, and we shall continue to persevere through non-violent protest and action. I urge my fellow Negroes in Washington and throughout this great nation to refrain from resorting to senseless violence that can only serve to undermine our noble cause for liberty and the pursuit of happiness. I have not been intimidated by this attack; it has only made me a more ardent supporter for our cause!"


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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #23 on: June 18, 2012, 06:15:16 PM »


Is it just me, or is there a lot of variation on where MLK was politically?  His niece (the most knowledgable source I've found yet) claims he was an economic and cultural conservative, but a social progressive.  I'm assuming that means he's a libertarian.  But which party would he be in?  His was a registered republican until JFK got MLK Jr out of prison.  So does anyone know how MLK voted?  (I'm almost positive MLK was in a commercial for LBJ in 64)

No, the only reason he would have been a Republican was becuase of "de great Liberator"

Who's that?

I believe he's referring to Lincoln.

I'll be going out of town for two weeks, so I'll try to finish a big update for today.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #24 on: July 16, 2012, 07:22:02 AM »

Pennsylvania

Democrats



Vice President Edmund Brown (D-CA) - 460,512 - 51.5%
Senator George McGovern (D-SD) - 412,364 - 46.1%
Others - 20,387 - 2.4%

Republicans


 
General William Westmoreland (R-SC) - 431,789 - 36.9%
Governor George Romney (R-MI) - 398,094 - 34.1%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY) - 326,132 - 27.9%
Others - 11,902 - 1.1%


Vice President Brown received a modest victory in the Pennsylvania primary, largely in part due to heavy union turnout in his favor. The victory also helped reinforce the notion that he was the Democratic front runner, which some began to doubt after his loss in Wisconsin. Still, the race for the Democratic nomination was still close: neither candidate had completely smashed the other in a primary.

Brown was shackled by President Johnson from coming out completely against the War in Vietnam and reaching a quick peace settlement. A direct and clear stance against the war would cut into McGovern's base of support and make his candidacy meaningless. While he was in favor, he could not risk alienating Johnson who could turn the party machinery against him, and force the convention to nominate a more loyal supporter.

General Westmoreland finally scored a win in the primaries in Pennsylvania. The more agrarian counties came out heavily for him, while suburbanites and more moderate voters, still wary of Westmoreland, split between Romney and Rockefeller. Romney was able to come out far ahead and keep it close by being the favorite of many blue collar workers, especially in Western Pennsylvania, which was similar to his native Michigan. Rockefeller's performance seemed to be waning and his support was propped up due to a regional effect.

Rockefeller found himself in a precarious condition: he either had to end his slump fast or risk dropping out. Some of his supporters were leaving his candidacy for Romney's and Westmoreland's win finally gave him real credibility in the eyes of Republican voters.

Vice President Brown, wanting to lighten the burden of vigorous campaigning and to reinforce his position in states he considered himself weak, got loyal surrogates to fill in for him. They would control their state's delegates and pledge them to Brown at the convention.


Senator Stephen Young (D-OH) and Senator George Smathers (D-FL) were both surrogates for Vice President Brown

In the Rustbelt, Senator Stephen Young (D-OH) would be on the ballot in Ohio and Governor Roger Branigan (D-IN) would be on the ballot in Indiana in Brown's place. Their selections were considered crucial due to McGovern's strength in the Midwest. While Florida was more unfavorable to McGovern, Senator George Smathers (D-FL) was selected for logistical purposes: it saved money and time to keep Brown out of Florida and in Washington or on the campaign trail.

Senator McGovern had ballot access in all three states and vowed to campaign in them regardless of the presence of the favorite sons. It was not a choice of pride but rather a choice of necessity: he needed as many wins or strong performances as possible to keep his insurgent campaign afloat and credible. He could not afford to sit a contest out.

On the Republican side, some favorite sons would make the ballot, but for different reasons. With the possibility of a divided convention, it would help if delegates were held by placeholders loyal to the establishment, who could throw their support behind a leading candidate to put them over the edge. To the favorite sons, it also allowed them a seat at the table to decide the eventual nominee. Governors Richard Nixon of California and James Rhodes of Ohio found themselves entered onto their primary ballots.


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