Recent elections without 9/11

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

How do the 2004, 2008 and 2012 presidential elections go without 9/11, the war on terror, War on Iraq?

Any effects on the two party's coalitions?

[adracman42]

Had 9/11 not happened, I would think that Kerry would be poised to be much more likely to win in 2004.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Why? The economy would be better than our 2004 and there wouldn't be wars to energize an anti-war movement.

[GPORTER]

I don't think Kerry would have been the nominee in 2004 without 9/11. Different field of candidates

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

I don't think Kerry would have been the nominee in 2004 without 9/11. Different field of candidates

Why not? Without wars to oppose and a booming economy, even if it's not on par with the 90s the democrats would have the same incentive not to put their best up.

[CultureKing]

Hmm... Depends on whether or not we still would have invaded Iraq. I feel like Bush would have had a lot more push-back against any such actions in a world without 9/11.

[NHI]

2004: Democratic Win
2008: Narrow Democratic Win.
2012: Republican.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Hmm... Depends on whether or not we still would have invaded Iraq. I feel like Bush would have had a lot more push-back against any such actions in a world without 9/11.

Presume he doesn't invade Iraq, like I said in the OP.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Here's a possible 2004 map for a world with no 9/11, no Iraq war and an economy that's chugging along at a rate not quite as good as the 90s but is still considered boom times.

People who I've spitballed with before on this may recognize this.

[GPORTER]

I don't think Kerry would have been the nominee in 2004 without 9/11. Different field of candidates

Why not? Without wars to oppose and a booming economy, even if it's not on par with the 90s the democrats would have the same incentive not to put their best up.

September 11th 2001 changed the plans of Al Gore and Hillary Clinton especially for the 2004 election. Might have been Gore vs Clinton vs Edwards vs Kerry for the 2004 democratic nomination, President Bush not challenged for renomination.

[RodPresident]

2002 state elections went someway well to Democrats even with 9/11. They won states like Kansas, Wyoming and Oklahoma. Without 9/11, I can see Democrats winning Congress in 2002, keeping seats that they lost (Wellstone, Cleland and Carnahan) with pick-ups in New Hampshire and maybe NC and TX. Rick Perry would be unseated. Bush would be a lame-duck. 2004 would be a Democratic victory and 2008 Republicans could make it close but they would have difficulties to defeat an incumbent Democrat. In 2010, GOP pick-ups Congress. 2012 would be a likely/safe Republican election.

[Jerseyrules]

Had 9/11 not happened, I would think that Kerry would be poised to be much more likely to win in 2004.

Who says Kerry would even be the Dem nominee?  Gore / Lieberman 04 anyone? 

[kashifkhan]

I think the 2000 result took the fight out of Al Gore. I doubt he would have run again even without 9/11.

Democratic party nominees could have been Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Hilary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Kerry, and the other usual suspects.

If the GOP still wins in 2004, I reckon people like Colin Powell would have a decent shot at the nomination for the GOP in 2008.

[reagan84]

2004- Bush wins narrowly, probably over Kerry.  Lieberman may have had a chance in the general but he's not far enough left to win the primary.
2008-  Clinton/Obama wins easily over McCain.
2012- narrow Clinton/Obama win.

[Right to Life]

Kerry-315
Bush-223

[MrMittens]

Kerry-315
Bush-223

How does Kerry win Arkansas and at the same time lose Florida and Virginia.

[Right to Life]

Kerry-315
Bush-223

How does Kerry win Arkansas and at the same time lose Florida and Virginia.

I think Kerry could kerry Arkansas. He only lost by 7points and was leading in the polls at the start of the election there and that was when Bush was popular. As for Virginia I think without the large black turnout Obama would not have won so I dont think Kerry would win and for Florida I just cant see Kerry winning there.

[HelpOklahoma]

Bump!

My guess:

2004: Dems win
2008: Dems wins re-election
2012: Reps win after 8 years of being out of power.

[Clinton1996]

2004:

With no Iraq War and with the job growth poor from the still recent Dot-Com Bust, this election would focus on the economy. W. still ekes out a win though, casting Dean as an extremist liberal. The elction is closer though, because of increased Democratic enthusiasm.

Dean-Clark 265 48%
Bush-Cheney 270 50%

2008:

The GOP is still hurt by Katrina and The Financial Collapse. With no affair due to him not running for POTUS in 2004 and Obama choosing not to run, John Edwards wins the Democratic Nomination. Mitt Romney wins the Republican Nomination as the "conservative alternative" to John McCain, who cannot use Iraq and the War on Terror as proof of his conservatism.

Edwards-Obama 380 55%
Romney-Owens 158 44%

2012:

The GOP works better with Edwards and helps him pass more bills. The Economy is better than IRL, though not by much. The GOP choose to nominate South Dakota Senator John Thune as its standard Bearer. Edwards pulls of a narrower win than 2008, but still substantial.

Edwards-Obama 380 53%
Thune-Jindal 181 46%

[Skill and Chance]

2004:  Gore runs, 50/48 Dem win

2008: 57/40 Rep win (probably Romney), Economic crisis is worse than IRL without stimulus from wars

2012: 51/47 Rep re-election, basically the reverse of IRL although the EC would be very close for this PV win

[NHI]

2004:

Gore/Clark: 270 (49.1%)
Bush/Cheney: 268(49.5%)

2008:

Romney/Powell: 329 (52.9%)
Gore/Clark: 209 (45.8%)

2012:

Romney/Powell: 396 (55.0%)
Dean/Kerry: 142 (44.5%)

[Skill and Chance]

Similar to NHI.  Bush loses but then the economic crisis is even worse than IRL with a bigger speculative bubble.  Gore gets his revenge but then gets Hooverized in 2008 by Romney, who runs a much more libertarian campaign than IRL.  Romney barely wins in 2012 with a deeper recession and faster recovery vs. IRL.   

2004

Al Gore/Bill Nelson 50.1%
George Bush/Dick Cheney 48.9%



2008

Mitt Romney/John Thune 58.7%
Al Gore/Bill Nelson 40.1%



2012

Mitt Romney/John Thune 49.8%
Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama 48.7%

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

9/11 hurt the economy, no doubt about that.  I think Bush would've done better if it didn't occur.

ASSUMING A GOOD ECONOMY:

Best possible case for Bush (Bush v. Kucinich perhaps?):


Worst possible case (Bush v. Hilary):

[Emperor Charles V]

2004: Gore/Dean (D) narrowly beats Bush/Cheney (R)
2008: Romney/Tancredo (R) beats Gore/Dean (D) in a landslide
2012: Romney/Tancredo (R) narrowly beats Clinton/Edwards (D)