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Author Topic: Voter ID Laws Impact on General Election  (Read 469 times)
JFK-Democrat
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« on: May 02, 2012, 08:11:04 pm »
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How will the new voter ID laws impact the general election? How many points will it cost Obama and in which swing and non swing states will the impact be most obvious?

My guess is as follows:

Missouri is now out of reach for Obama (3-5%) negative impact
Virginia Obama probably still wins but the state is about 3% closer
Pennsylvania Maybe a 8% lower margin out of Philadelphia and 5% statewide

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We in this country, in this generation, are -by destiny rather than choice- the watchmen on the walls of world freedom. We ask, therefore, that we may be worthy of our power and responsibility, that we may exercise our strength with wisdom and restraint, and that we may achieve in our time and for all time the ancient vision of "peace on earth, good will toward men".   Remarks Prepared for Delivery at the Trade Mart in Dallas, November 22, 1963
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2012, 03:26:25 am »
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The voter-ID law cost Obama so much in 2008 that he actually won Indiana for the first time since 1964. But yeah, keep repeating the "voter-ID laws will hurt the Democrats"-mantra ... Roll Eyes
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Napoleon
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2012, 03:32:08 am »
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Why would these laws hurt Obama?
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LastVoter
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2012, 03:34:41 am »
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I don't understand what's going on in this thread?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2012, 03:35:51 am »
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Why would these laws hurt Obama?

Yepp. I think voters who care and really want to vote will not be too lazy to get on their feet and get a government photo ID, especially if the ID is free like in most states that have passed such laws.

Of course it could have been argued that Obama could have won Indiana with 52% of the vote in 2008, if the voter-ID law was not in place, but that's ridiculous.
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2012, 03:36:19 am »
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Why would these laws hurt Obama?
Because minorities and youngs tend to be more politically apathetic, anything that makes voting harder decreases turnout among them... and they're the Dems base.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2012, 03:43:15 am »
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Why would these laws hurt Obama?
Because minorities and youngs tend to be more politically apathetic, anything that makes voting harder decreases turnout among them... and they're the Dems base.
How does requiring ID make voting harder? Not having an ID would make someone's whole life harder. They may be politically apathetic, but they might like buying cigarettes, alcohol, going to strip clubs, using credit cards, cashing checks, driving, and so on, so forth. Plus, don't you think it is absurd to require ID for all of these simple, daily tasks, but yet our own democracy, the very foundation of our country, doesn't need to verify someone's identity? I wont sell you these Swisher Sweets, but you can go down to that church or whatever and vote if you would like. Jesus. You guys make zero sense.
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2012, 03:44:38 am »
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I don't understand what's going on in this thread?

Someone apparently thinks 5% of the electorate, all Obama supporters, will not be able to provide ID to vote. Haha.
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2012, 09:33:39 am »
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For all the angst they generate, the debate over these voter ID laws is primarily one of symbolism, not substance. At most, they'll affect some 0.1% of the electorate and I doubt that it would be that much.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2012, 09:36:17 am »
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The Democratic party in Georgia had no problems in 2008 and 2010, compared to prior elections in 2002, 2004, and 2006 that were held without photo ID.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2012, 09:38:16 am »
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For all the angst they generate, the debate over these voter ID laws is primarily one of symbolism, not substance. At most, they'll affect some 0.1% of the electorate and I doubt that it would be that much.

There you go. One can argue whether the number of basis points involved is 6, 10, or 20, but that is the range.
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2012, 06:31:12 pm »
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For all the angst they generate, the debate over these voter ID laws is primarily one of symbolism, not substance. At most, they'll affect some 0.1% of the electorate and I doubt that it would be that much.
Same with voter Fraud Laws. I still have yet to see a successful proof of them having effect where the Republican attempting to commit voter fraud does NOT getting arrested or finding an election which would have changed if voter laws were not implemented.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2012, 06:32:51 pm by Senator Seatown »Logged
ajb
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2012, 06:57:09 pm »
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Lots of people who were born in this country don't have birth certificates, and can't now get them. Through into the 1960's, lots of births in rural South Carolina (and particularly, obviously, among African-Americans) happened at home, with a midwife or other informal assistance, and either their births were not registered, or they were registered incorrectly. There are legal provisions for allowing those who don't have a birth certificate to get photo ID, but those provisions are themselves difficult to satisfy. See the article below, originally from Columbia, SC's The State newspaper:

http://www.jackandjillpolitics.com/2011/07/journal-of-voter-suppression-2012-south-carolina-edition/

I'm not going to estimate numbers here, or the potential effect on voter turnout. But it bears repeating that not everyone without photo ID in this country is in that situation just because they're lazy.
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2012, 10:59:40 pm »
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Now that we are in the middle of July and the race still seems tied or Obama slightly ahead. It appears that a lot more people are taking the Voter Suppression...err Voter ID Laws seriously.

Does any care to guess what the impact will be? I am really worried about Pennsylvania, I really feel that Romney could win this state if enough people are either discouraged or actually turned away from the polls.

Am I overreacting?

The NY Times is running a story about this...sorry cant post the link because my post count is low.
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We in this country, in this generation, are -by destiny rather than choice- the watchmen on the walls of world freedom. We ask, therefore, that we may be worthy of our power and responsibility, that we may exercise our strength with wisdom and restraint, and that we may achieve in our time and for all time the ancient vision of "peace on earth, good will toward men".   Remarks Prepared for Delivery at the Trade Mart in Dallas, November 22, 1963
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« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2012, 12:42:14 am »
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It can cause a pinch to Obama's numbers but nothing serious.
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« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2012, 09:54:48 am »
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Most of the voter fraud doesn't take place in the voting booth.   A lot more takes place in the back of the van as it carries the boxes of ballots from the polling station to the county courthouse.  Then even more at the courthouse.
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