Quinnipiac polls for FL OH and PA

[Ben Romney]

FLORIDA: Romney 44 - Obama 43
Florida voters disapprove 50 - 46 percent of the job Obama is doing and say 50 - 45 percent he does not deserve to be reelected.

OHIO: Obama 44 - Romney 42
Ohio voters split 48 - 47 percent in their approval of Obama and split 47 - 48 percent on whether he deserves to be reelected.

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 47 - Romney 39
Voters approve 50 - 46 percent of the job Obama is doing and say 50 - 46 percent he deserves four more years.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1743

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Starting to think Romney will need some kind of really negative event to happen in order to actually win this thing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What kind of person thinks Obama should be reelected and doesn't vote for him?

[Ben Romney]

Fl and oH results seems right to me but PA too far off imo
I will buy Obama is ahead there but not that far

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

What kind of person thinks Obama should be reelected and doesn't vote for him?

They don't seem to be pushing people very hard in the state polls.

[ajb]

The PA result is pretty much in line with the average, which is a 6-point Obama lead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html#polls

Compared to the last couple of Q-Pac polls, this one shows Obama up a couple, and Romney down a couple. There continues to be little evidence to support the claim that Romney can make up for losses in other swing states by taking PA.

[pbrower2a]

We are going to see States seem to swing from month to month and week to week based upon who polled them last... but basically the Republicans have themselves in a position of having very few ways in which to win and many in which to lose.

Take all the states that the Democrats have won in four of the last five elections (I discount the early Selzer poll in Iowa) and President Obama wins with

Colorado and Nevada
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri

Colorado and Nevada together looks like the easiest for the President. The others are different enough that any one can be won without the others.

You can remove Indiana (President Obama will win Ohio before Indiana), Arizona (he will win Colorado and Nevada first), or either Georgia or South Carolina (he would win both Florida and North Carolina first) from consideration.

Things look much like September 2008 in early May. President Obama can win with a defensive beat-the-cheat strategy that forces Mitt Romney to defend a bunch of States. 

[Ben Romney]

http://usconservatives.about.com/b/2012/05/03/3-new-swing-state-polls-show-bad-news-for-obama.htm

Florida:
The poll shows Romney leads Obama by 44-43%, after figures are weighted. (In weighting, pollsters can alter the data to reflect what they believe the actual election turnout will be, so as to minimize the effect of skewed polling samples. This estimate can be quite subjective). Before weighting, Romney's lead was larger. So, how did the pollster weight the Florida data? The Republican sample was weighted to be only 28% despite being 36% in 2010 (a "Republican year") and 34% in 2008 (a "Democrat year").

The weighting also reflects the pollsters opinion that Democrat turnout will be 3% higher than Republican turnout, 3% points higher than it was in 2010 and equal to 2008. So even by weighting to Democrat-favorable 2008 turnout figures (unlikely to be repeated in 2012), Obama is still trailing.

Ohio:
In Ohio, it's more of the same, but even a lot worse. While the poll shows Obama winning by just 44-42%, those figures also reflect very favorable Obama assumptions. Once again, the polling sample is weighted to drop Republican turnout to a shockingly low 24% while it was 37% in 2010 and 31% in 2008. Meanwhile, the pollster kept Democrat turnout at 36%, exactly where it was in 2010 and only 3 points less than 2010.

So while turnout in 2010 saw Republicans at 37% to 36% for Democrats, this poll "weights" the turnout to be 36% for Democrats and 24% for Republicans. And even then, Obama's lead is just 2%. If you weight the Ohio numbers to actual 2010 turnout, Romney leads 48-42%. So, a lot of these polls reflect only how pollsters prefer to "weight them." But in any case, a weighted sample of 24% for Republicans is extremely low.

Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is much of the same. While Republicans made up 37% of the electorate in both 2008 and 2010, the pollster once again weights the information so that Republican turnout is just 29%. The Democrat have a 7 point margin advantage in the weighted sample, equal to 2008 (and more than double the 3 point advantage of 2010). Here, Obama is still at only 47%, even though he scored 55% of the PA vote in 2008 (and even though a large chunk of the GOP has apparently moved out of the state according to the pollster).

[King]

http://usconservatives.about.com/b/2012/05/03/3-new-swing-state-polls-show-bad-news-for-obama.htm

...

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Database entries:

FL: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220120501015
OH: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920120501015
PA: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220120501015

[mondale84]

Quinnitroll university

[Jayhawker]

I'll take this. Was starting to worry Ohio was lean Democratic, but this indicates it should be one of the main battlegrounds once again.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Me too. I actually think this is great news. Ohio was looking like it could've been out of Romney's hands. Not so anymore. The Florida numbers are good too.

I'm surprised at Ohio and Pennsyvania. It was almost looking like Romney was averaging better in PA than OH before these polls came out. Hmm.

Ben Romney's excellent post has given me a lot of confidence though, so we'll see.

[oakvale]

Ben Romney's excellent post

...

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

I think it's pretty close.  OH is going to flip before PA does.  Although I'm skeptical that either will.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Ben Romney's excellent post

...

Pleasure to see you again.

[oakvale]

Ben Romney's excellent post

...

Pleasure to see you again.

You really are new here if you think Hillary2012 has ever contributed anything but poorly written masturbatory commentary on an endless flood of junk polls.

Your average Hillary2012 post reads something like "Zogby online poll...0bama 19 Romney 81!!!!!!".

[krazen1211]

Quinnipiac is an excellent pollster. Looks reasonable.

[Chaddyr23]

This looks more like how i feel things are

[Tender Branson]

Nothing to worry yet.

4 years ago at this point, Quinnipiac had McCain ahead of Obama by 4 in OH and FL:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1180

And Hillary destroying McCain.

[Ben Romney]

Hello Hagrid

nice to meet you

some posters here r crazy becuase I am an independent Democrat who supports Rmney for President.
I have  a own election group with a weekly electoral map @ facebook!
https://www.facebook.com/groups/185054414852195/
with a weekly electoral map of mine-very accurate
for the mid-terms in 2010 I had had only 1 State wrong- WA

I think the numbers for OH and Fl r probably very near  to the truth PA is way off. imo

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac leans slightly R. Slightly.

The same sorts of people who voted for John McCain will almost all vote for Mitt Romney in 2012 -- if they vote. The same sorts of people who voted for President Obama in 2008 will vote for him again in 2012 -- if they vote. So far I see no evidence of any regional shift (let us say, voters in the inner arc of states from Louisiana to West Virginia who largely voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 going 'back' to the Democratic ticket, or on the other side, states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin marginally D in 2000 or 2004 going to Romney).  The states on the margin in 2008 are still on the margin, and the only arguable shift of a medium-sized state (Arizona) reflects the reversal of the Favorite Son effect. 

Texas seems to have gone from solid R to "fringe of competitiveness", at least according to one pollster, but we need remember that no single poll of Texas is trustworthy. No other state is like Texas in its demographics and voting history.

What matters is that in view of the voting of other states, about everything has to go right for Romney for him to win if the current polling situation remains in effect. If Florida, Missouri,  North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and the combination of Colorado and Nevada are all 50-50 propositions for Romney, then all of the states in that group are in his 'must-win' category and Romney must pick off one of Colorado and Nevada. Except for Colorado and Nevada those states are different from each other that they cannot be assured of going together short of a nationwide shift of votes. If the President seals one of those very different states states or the combination of Colorado and Nevada then it is all over for the Presidential race.   

[ajc0918]

Not that it matters, it's somewhat relevant, but the Obama campaign opened its 25th office in Florida yesterday.

The Romney campaign still maintains their 1 office from the primary, although driving by it doesn't look active. But I'm sure activity will be picking up.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

These seem spot on but Mitt needs to pick up both North Carolina and Virginia by Labor Day. (Or pick off PA and NJ).

[Χahar]

Hello Hagrid

nice to meet you

some posters here r crazy becuase I am an independent Democrat who supports Rmney for President.
I have  a own election group with a weekly electoral map @ facebook!
https://www.facebook.com/groups/185054414852195/
with a weekly electoral map of mine-very accurate
for the mid-terms in 2010 I had had only 1 State wrong- WA

I think the numbers for OH and Fl r probably very near  to the truth PA is way off. imo

I would ask why your Facebook page has this album full of bizarre pictures of Hillary Clinton, but I suspect that question answers itself.