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| | |-+  Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?
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Author Topic: Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?  (Read 4239 times)
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Rockingham
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« on: May 03, 2012, 07:42:59 am »
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Massachusetts has a reputation as a bastion Democrats. It voted for George McGovern in 1972 when no other state did.

On the other hand Mitt Romney did govern Massachusetts very effectively, and he's precisely the sort of Rockefeller Republican that appeals to them. Scott Brown narrowly won the state's senate seat in 2010. And I think it's notable that Massachusetts was the only state outside of the South to vote more Republican in 2008 then it did in 2004.

If the economy collapses thanks to European and Chinese problems, I reckon Mitt Romney could pull it off.

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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2012, 07:47:05 am »
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Romney 1.0 could have made it close. Romney 72.3 won't.
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2012, 07:49:15 am »
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Maybe NH, but not Massachusetts.
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2012, 07:51:39 am »
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Nope. He'll get 30-40%.
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2012, 07:51:58 am »
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No.
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2012, 08:02:50 am »
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Haha, no.
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wormyguy
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2012, 08:03:37 am »
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He'll do quite well for a Republican in Massachusetts, but almost certainly not enough to outright win the state.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2012, 08:30:11 am »
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Haha we'll see. I reckon I'll be vindicated come November. Noone though Scott Brown would win Massachusetts either.

Remember Massachusetts lacks a large nonwhite population to prop up the Democrats, and all recent polls show all white subgroups(including liberals) becoming less supportive of Obama.
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wormyguy
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2012, 08:34:26 am »
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Haha we'll see. I reckon I'll be vindicated come November. Noone though Scott Brown would win Massachusetts either.

Remember Massachusetts lacks a large nonwhite population to prop up the Democrats, and all recent polls show all white subgroups(including liberals) becoming less supportive of Obama.

I actually agree that MA is trending Republican... just not that fast.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2012, 09:05:28 am »
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I think he will, but in a small margin.

But if he loses, he might as well throw in the towel considering, hardly any candidate loses their home state and wins the entire election. 
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2012, 09:30:29 am »
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I think he will, but in a small margin.

But if he loses, he might as well throw in the towel considering, hardly any candidate loses their home state and wins the entire election. 

That is because, in most recent elections, the candidate is from a state that isn't solidly pro-opposition party.
Losing Massachusetts, a solid D state since like forever, isn't going to mean he's dead come election day.
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2012, 09:35:09 am »
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Polling doesn't even show him close, so there's your answer.
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2012, 09:56:12 am »
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Is this a joke?
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2012, 10:13:16 am »
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Isn't putting up threads like this a bit of a self indulgence?  If one must do it, content should be added, such as I think Mass will trend heavily GOP because blacks are thin on the ground there, the secular center has lost faith in Obama, white Catholics are fleeing in droves, and I base that on this and that, and so forth. JMO.

If we do this state by excruciating state, thread by thread by thread, it will begin to feel like this Board is being well - water boarded. But hey, maybe being water boarded doesn't make one feel as bad as they all say.  Maybe for those into kink, it would be a turn on. Anything is possible I guess.

And no, Mittens will not be winning Mass under any circumstances, unless the election is a blow out, which it won't be. Thank you.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2012, 10:18:30 am by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2012, 10:16:18 am »
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Mitt Romney was a grand-guignol-terrible governor.
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2012, 10:19:14 am »
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If a gigantic, devastating economic collapse hit this nation, anybody could win Massachusetts.
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2012, 10:35:54 am »
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Didn't he have approval ratings comparable to John Kasich/Rick Scott after leaving office?
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« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2012, 10:36:24 am »
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No
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« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2012, 10:38:31 am »
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Didn't he have approval ratings comparable to John Kasich/Rick Scott after leaving office?

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/Research_Centers/Nov_6_2006_marginals.pdf

36-55 disapproval according to this poll.  He's recovered since then and I think he's now slightly positive.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2012, 11:22:38 am »
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Polling doesn't even show him close, so there's your answer.
Actually most recent polls show Obama with a lead margin of between 11% and 15% over Romney, but with ~10% undecided. The majority of undecideds typically end up against the incumbent. Assuming that holds true in Mass, all Romney might be looking at 45% of the vote against Obama's 55% if the election were held today.

Is it so unreasonable to think he might be able to bridge that gap if the economy returns to a downward spiral/Romney runs an effective campaign/a foreign policy crisis undermines Obama Carter style? I'd say if all three occur then the odds outright favour Romney.

I think he will, but in a small margin.

But if he loses, he might as well throw in the towel considering, hardly any candidate loses their home state and wins the entire election. 

That is because, in most recent elections, the candidate is from a state that isn't solidly pro-opposition party.
Losing Massachusetts, a solid D state since like forever, isn't going to mean he's dead come election day.
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« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2012, 11:28:21 am »
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Actually most recent polls show Obama with a lead margin of between 11% and 15% over Romney, but with ~10% undecided. The majority of undecideds typically end up against the incumbent. Assuming that holds true in Mass, all Romney might be looking at 45% of the vote against Obama's 55% if the election were held today.

It depends who they are. In Texas, the undecideds are almost all Republicans. In Massachusetts, they are Dems or lean-Dems. By November, each group will have been reminded who they really support at heart and those gaps will grow.
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« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2012, 12:58:58 pm »
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Mitt Romney will do decent in Massachusetts, helping Republicans downballot, but he won't come with in single-digits, barring a landslide.
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2012, 01:06:31 pm »
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I love how the initial question is totally loaded. Who says Mitt governed effectively? If he had, his approval rating wouldn't have been in the 30's by 2006.

As for your answer, lol nope. Stranger things have happened in politics...actually, no...Massachusetts voting for Romney would be the strangest thing that I can think of
« Last Edit: May 03, 2012, 01:10:59 pm by cope1989 »Logged

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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2012, 01:57:29 pm »
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Romney 1.0 could have made it close. Romney 72.3 won't.

This.  Romney 1.0 would win 40+ states against Obama.  Romney 1.0 also would never win the GOP nomination.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2012, 02:48:42 pm »
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Actually most recent polls show Obama with a lead margin of between 11% and 15% over Romney, but with ~10% undecided. The majority of undecideds typically end up against the incumbent. Assuming that holds true in Mass, all Romney might be looking at 45% of the vote against Obama's 55% if the election were held today.

It depends who they are. In Texas, the undecideds are almost all Republicans. In Massachusetts, they are Dems or lean-Dems. By November, each group will have been reminded who they really support at heart and those gaps will grow.

Undecideds in all places tend to be 50-50.
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