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Author Topic: Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?  (Read 4347 times)
ag
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« Reply #75 on: May 04, 2012, 03:58:03 pm »
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He isn't a real troll. He's just very, very young, probably. You know, "on the internet knobody knows that you are a dog Smiley)  "
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« Reply #76 on: May 04, 2012, 03:59:03 pm »
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I like that the troll is seriously citing YouGov (!) and a uni poll to support a... uh Rasmussen poll.
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« Reply #77 on: May 04, 2012, 03:59:21 pm »
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The most recent poll shows Obama with 51%, Mittens 40%, 9% undecided. Assuming undecideds split fairly evenly that's 55 to 45 for Obama.

I know this is all trolling, but did you see that it's a Rasmussen Poll and no other poll shows anything like that narrow a margin?
False. YouGov and Suffolk Uni have show similar results. PPP has been all over the place.

Justify your assertion that I am trolling, or admit to using to avoid having an open mind.

b33 has an open mind......he just dismisses jibberish Smiley
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« Reply #78 on: May 04, 2012, 04:01:39 pm »
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I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread when he does win it. Smiley

I am afraid, others will find bumping this thread a lot more enjoyable Smiley)

If Romney wins MA, he wins, at least, 40 other states as well.  He should, of course, do better than most recent Republicans - I am almost certain he'd get into the 40s, may be even come close to 45%.  He will, probably, win in Plymouth county and might win Worcester. He'd struggle in Norfolk and Barnstable and almost certainly loose the rest of it, mostly by big margins.

To do much better than that, he'd have to run against the national Republican party, on a VERY liberal platform. He could do this when running for governor - he'd never be able to pull it off running for President. Even then it would be a strong lean D, though.

But there is no reason for him even to try to win MA - it would be a ridiculous use of limited campaing resources.
We're just talking past each other right now. Should an economic collapse/foreign policy humiliation occur between now and November, I may be vindicated.
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« Reply #79 on: May 04, 2012, 04:02:20 pm »
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The most recent poll shows Obama with 51%, Mittens 40%, 9% undecided. Assuming undecideds split fairly evenly that's 55 to 45 for Obama.

Mittens needs only a 5% swing in his favour in Massachusetts. I see that as a fairly plausible event if the economy starts collapsing again before November and/or Obama suffers a serious foreign policy humiliation in the Middle East.

Basing yourself on a particularly favorable poll months before the election, while ignoring everything else, is not very smart.

Well, may be, if Obama lets Netaniyahu rape one of his daughters and have it shown in a prime time news broadcast. I don't, know, may be...
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« Reply #80 on: May 04, 2012, 04:03:52 pm »
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I disagree with the idea that Romney could win Massachusetts but how does what this guy is saying constitute trolling? If anything the people calling him a troll are trolling the thread.
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« Reply #81 on: May 04, 2012, 04:04:45 pm »
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I disagree with the idea that Romney could win Massachusetts but how does what this guy is saying constitute trolling? If anything the people calling him a troll are trolling the thread.

Because the premise is patently absurd, and I'm reasonably sure he knows that.
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« Reply #82 on: May 04, 2012, 04:04:56 pm »
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I like that the troll is seriously citing YouGov (!) and a uni poll to support a... uh Rasmussen poll.
Also certain PPP polls(though others work against my argument).

The problem is that Rasmussen, PPP, YouGov and Suffolk are the only ones to have done polling.

Whats wrong with YouGov?
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« Reply #83 on: May 04, 2012, 04:06:57 pm »
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I disagree with the idea that Romney could win Massachusetts but how does what this guy is saying constitute trolling? If anything the people calling him a troll are trolling the thread.

Because the premise is patently absurd, and I'm reasonably sure he knows that.
Le Sigh
Romney breach a 10% margin through a 5% increase courtesy of an economic collapse/FP bungle is not patently absurd.
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« Reply #84 on: May 04, 2012, 04:07:22 pm »
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We're just talking past each other right now. Should an economic collapse/foreign policy humiliation occur between now and November, I may be vindicated.

In a scenario in which Romney wins 40+ states, MA could go. But it would be a huge landslide, and nobody would care of MA at that point. Anything short of that won't do the job.

A run-off-the-mill crisis - like the general economic near-meltdown in 2008 - would, probably, not be enough. May be, a tape of Obama acting in gay-necrophiliac porn movie could.
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« Reply #85 on: May 04, 2012, 04:08:32 pm »
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I disagree with the idea that Romney could win Massachusetts but how does what this guy is saying constitute trolling? If anything the people calling him a troll are trolling the thread.
Agreed.
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« Reply #86 on: May 04, 2012, 04:09:37 pm »
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We're just talking past each other right now. Should an economic collapse/foreign policy humiliation occur between now and November, I may be vindicated.

In a scenario in which Romney wins 40+ states, MA could go. But it would be a huge landslide, and nobody would care of MA at that point. Anything short of that won't do the job.

A run-off-the-mill crisis - like the general economic near-meltdown in 2008 - would, probably, not be enough. May be, a tape of Obama acting in gay-necrophiliac porn movie could.
I'm not talking a near-meltdown, I'm talking a total meltdown, on account of the fact that implementing a second bailout ala the 2008 one would be politically impossible in the present congress.
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« Reply #87 on: May 04, 2012, 04:14:52 pm »
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I'm not talking a near-meltdown, I'm talking a total meltdown, on account of the fact that implementing a second bailout ala the 2008 one would be politically impossible in the present congress.

You should keep in mind that back in 2008 serious people were talking about the coming meltdown many months, if not years, before it happened. By this time in 2008 sh**t was hitting the fan really strongly. Bear went down in March, if you are old enough to recall. There is NOTHING remotely like that in the offing this time. So, stop dreaming.
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« Reply #88 on: May 04, 2012, 04:16:56 pm »
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Oh, okay, so this ridiculous idea rest upon some random second Great Depression happening between now and Election Day?

Grin

Guys, if Obama nuked California would Romney flip it??

EDIT: Rockingham, this board is so full of terrible, terrible threads like this that you can't blame people for venting their annoyance a little.
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« Reply #89 on: May 04, 2012, 04:21:04 pm »
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I'm not talking a near-meltdown, I'm talking a total meltdown, on account of the fact that implementing a second bailout ala the 2008 one would be politically impossible in the present congress.

You should keep in mind that back in 2008 serious people were talking about the coming meltdown many months, if not years, before it happened. By this time in 2008 sh**t was hitting the fan really strongly. Bear went down in March, if you are old enough to recall. There is NOTHING remotely like that in the offing this time. So, stop dreaming.
Actually their have been several years worth of concerned discussion about a possible slowdown in China, with outright assertions of a property bubble and unsustainable growth for more then a year past. Same holds true for concerns about the eurozone. If you've been following any of the commentary on the international economic situation you will have noticed countless respectable commentators(The Economist, for example) propounding on their potential to set of a recession/depression.

No dreams mate.
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« Reply #90 on: May 04, 2012, 04:32:29 pm »
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Oh, okay, so this ridiculous idea rest upon some random second Great Depression happening between now and Election Day?
Have you been following the situation in China and Europe?.... stupid question, you're Irish. So you've no excuse for rejecting the possibility of the European situation triggering a depression before the year is up.


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Guys, if Obama nuked California would Romney flip it??
Yes, but highly unlikely to happen.

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EDIT: Rockingham, this board is so full of terrible, terrible threads like this that you can't blame people for venting their annoyance a little.
Better then most of threads on the first page, IMO.
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« Reply #91 on: May 04, 2012, 04:42:58 pm »
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Mondale84 has attempted to mock me by creating a thread suggesting that my assertion that Mitt Romney might win Massachusetts is comparable to suggesting Obama might win Utah: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153078.0

Theirs are very obvious flaw to his argument.

The lead margin for Romney over Obama in Utah is 40%. Obama's lead margin in Massachusetts is only 10%.

His attempt to mock me falls flat if you look at those numbers. A 5% increase in Romney's vote is very plausible, whereas a 20% increase for Obama would be entirely unprecedented
« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 05:25:15 pm by Kyro sayz »Logged
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« Reply #92 on: May 04, 2012, 05:34:18 pm »
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He isn't a real troll. He's just very, very young, probably. You know, "on the internet nobody knows that you are a dog Smiley)  "
I don't think Kyro is a New Yorker.
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« Reply #93 on: May 04, 2012, 05:40:14 pm »
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Your assuming the swing would have to be identical between states. Whereas recent polling shows Romney doing a lot better then McCain in Massachussets(40% Romney to 51% Obama), and that's leaving a substantial undecided vote. Assuming it splits slightly favourably to Romney, that's 45/55%. Which means he only needs an additional 5% swing over the course of this campaign.

Simple math folks.

Rasmussen has been showing better results for Republicans a lot of places, Obama certainly will be well over 50% on election day. Second, uniform swing I referring to is based on the previous presidential vote. With a big national swing, Romney would have to over-perform in a big way in Massachusetts to get 45% and he just doesn't have that sort of appeal in the state. 1-2% points from what McCain got may be possible, but beyond that, it's not going to be much different.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 07:29:32 pm by DrScholl »Logged

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« Reply #94 on: May 04, 2012, 09:25:13 pm »
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Haha we'll see. I reckon I'll be vindicated come November. Noone though Scott Brown would win Massachusetts either.

Remember Massachusetts lacks a large nonwhite population to prop up the Democrats, and all recent polls show all white subgroups(including liberals) becoming less supportive of Obama.

Obama has a much more competent campagin than Coakley did.
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« Reply #95 on: May 04, 2012, 10:47:51 pm »
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I'm not talking a near-meltdown, I'm talking a total meltdown, on account of the fact that implementing a second bailout ala the 2008 one would be politically impossible in the present congress.

You should keep in mind that back in 2008 serious people were talking about the coming meltdown many months, if not years, before it happened. By this time in 2008 sh**t was hitting the fan really strongly. Bear went down in March, if you are old enough to recall. There is NOTHING remotely like that in the offing this time. So, stop dreaming.
Actually their have been several years worth of concerned discussion about a possible slowdown in China, with outright assertions of a property bubble and unsustainable growth for more then a year past. Same holds true for concerns about the eurozone. If you've been following any of the commentary on the international economic situation you will have noticed countless respectable commentators(The Economist, for example) propounding on their potential to set of a recession/depression.

No dreams mate.

But none of them suggesting actual financial meltdown between now and November. A recession could be more than enough to elect Romney president - but not to have him winning in MA.

In any case, even if that happens, and Romney wins MA (could happen, I've conceded that before, though, of course, extremely unlikely), he would be winning so many other traditional Dem states (at the very least, before Obama looses MA, he'd loose all of Midwest, w/ possible exception of IL, as well as mountain west, PA, NJ, CT, NH, ME and everything south of DC; probably either OR or WA or both as well) that MA would, at most, be an icing on the cake. But, short of a huge landslide, this is, certainly, not happening.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 10:59:05 pm by ag »Logged
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« Reply #96 on: May 04, 2012, 11:28:05 pm »

Isn't putting up threads like this a bit of a self indulgence?  If one must do it, content should be added, such as I think Mass will trend heavily GOP because blacks are thin on the ground there, the secular center has lost faith in Obama, white Catholics are fleeing in droves, and I base that on this and that, and so forth. JMO.

If we do this state by excruciating state, thread by thread by thread, it will begin to feel like this Board is being well - water boarded.

Agreed.  Also:

We're just talking past each other right now.

This thread has outlived any possibility of productive discussion.  Locking this one and the Obama wins Utah thread.  If anyone really wants me to unlock it after the election to gloat, feel free to PM me about it at that time.
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