Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 01, 2015, 11:19:13 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hash)
| | |-+  The Big May 6 Prediction Thread
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread  (Read 2015 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36956
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


View Profile
« on: May 03, 2012, 10:51:55 am »
Ignore

Post your May 6 predictions here:

France (President, 2nd round)

52.3% Hollande
47.7% Sarkozy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012

Greece (Parliament)

19% ND
15% PASOK
14% SYRIZA
11% ANEL
11% KKE
10% XA
10% DIMAR
  3% Greens
  3% LAOS
  2% DRASI
  1% ANTARSYA
  1% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_2012

Serbia (Parliament & President)

32% SNS
30% DS
12% SPS
  6% LDP
  6% DSS
  5% SRS
  4% URS
  5% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_parliamentary_election,_2012

30% Nikolić (SNS)
29% Tadić (DS)
41% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_presidential_election,_2012

Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament)

31% CDU
30% SPD
12% Pirates
12% Greens
  6% FDP
  4% SSW
  2% Left
  3% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schleswig-Holstein_state_election,_2012

Armenia (Parliament)

41% Republican Party
34% Prosperous Armenia
25% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_parliamentary_election,_2012
Logged
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4369
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2012, 10:58:25 am »
Ignore

May 6 is going to be an awful lot of fun if everything goes right.
Logged
sex-negative feminist prude
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14344


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2012, 11:00:14 am »
Ignore

Why do there not appear to have been any polls in Greece for about two weeks?
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

I didn't really read it, tbh.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36956
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2012, 11:04:30 am »
Ignore

Why do there not appear to have been any polls in Greece for about two weeks?

Poll ban law ahead of the election.
Logged
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4369
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2012, 11:05:15 am »
Ignore

Why do there not appear to have been any polls in Greece for about two weeks?

I seem to recall vaguely that Greece has government regulations banning polling during the last part of the campaign. Very well possible I'm mistaken though.
Logged
sex-negative feminist prude
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14344


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2012, 11:06:38 am »
Ignore

Huh, that's certainly considerably severer than, say, France's.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

I didn't really read it, tbh.
Trump 2016
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37503
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2012, 01:10:09 pm »
Ignore

So basically we have no idea what's going to happen in Greece then? That's fun.
Logged

THE FRONTRUNNER

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58871
United Kingdom


View Profile WWW
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2012, 01:11:11 pm »
Ignore

Basically it means dice. Maybe there have been illegal polls?
Logged

"Whatsoever Aristotle may have thought of this, I do not care"

William of Occam
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14180


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2012, 01:17:17 pm »
Ignore

My understanding is that polling isn't actually illegal but rather the broadcasting of poll results is illegal.
Logged
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58871
United Kingdom


View Profile WWW
« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2012, 01:44:03 pm »
Ignore

My understanding is that polling isn't actually illegal but rather the broadcasting of poll results is illegal.

And there, in a nutshell, is why Greece has gone to hell.
Logged

"Whatsoever Aristotle may have thought of this, I do not care"

William of Occam
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17517


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2012, 02:24:26 pm »
Ignore

What's the rationale for these kinds of restrictions (campaigning or running ads on election day in France, broadcasting poll results in Greece)? It seems to be common in a lot of countries but I genuinely don't understand.
Logged

A New Chapter

"I feel like Paulette Revere — the recession is coming, the recession is coming!” - Hillary Clinton, April 3, 2008
Αλληλεγγύη
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34486
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2012, 02:28:31 pm »
Ignore

What's the rationale for these kinds of restrictions (campaigning or running ads on election day in France, broadcasting poll results in Greece)? It seems to be common in a lot of countries but I genuinely don't understand.

Giving the voters a couple days to "chill out" from the mediatic noise and to reflect to their choice in intimacy.
Logged

RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14180


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2012, 03:31:49 pm »
Ignore

I don't know if this is the intended effect, but I suspect it helps minor parties and candidates by making their supporters less inclined to ditch them in favor of the front-running parties at the last minute.

It also prevents the annoying self-fulfilling polling surge problem we see sometimes (media says a party is surging in the polls when they aren't really and but then they actually are because voters become convinced they are and want to support a winner).
Logged
Bacon King
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17142
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2012, 12:58:54 am »
Ignore

I'll take a shot at this...

France (President, 2nd round)

52.7% Hollande
47.3% Sarkozy

Greece (Parliament)

18% ND
16% SYRIZA
15% ANEL
11% PASOK
  9% KKE
  9% XA
  8% DIMAR
  4% Greens
  3% LAOS
  2% ANTARSYA
  5% Others (all other parties <1% each)

Serbia (Parliament & President)

35% SNS
28% DS
13% SPS
  6% DSS
  5% LDP
  4% SRS
  3% URS
  6% Others

35% Nikolić (SNS)
35% Tadić (DS)
 9% Dačić (SPS)
 8% Stanković (URS)
 7% Koštunica (DSS)
 3% Jovanović (LDP)
 3% others

Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament)

34% SPD
29% CDU
15% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% FDP
  4% SSW
  4% Left
  2% Others

Armenia (Parliament)

37% Republican Party
27% Prosperous Armenia
12% Armenian Revolutionary Federation
8% Heritage
6% Armenian National Congress
6% Rule of Law
2% other
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
Trump 2016
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37503
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2012, 04:29:35 pm »
Ignore

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.
Logged

THE FRONTRUNNER

Zuza
Full Member
***
Posts: 180
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2012, 08:26:40 pm »
Ignore

France (President, 2nd round)

51.2% Hollande
48.8% Sarkozy

Greece (Parliament)

20% ND
14.5% PASOK
13% SYRIZA
12% KKE
10% ANEL
8.5% XA
6% DIMAR
4% Greens
3% LAOS
3% DISY
1% DRASI
1% ANTARSYA
4% Others

Serbia (Parliament & President)

33% SNS
27% DS
12% SPS
7% LDP
6% DSS
5.5% SRS
4% URS
5.5% Others

30.5% Nikolić (SNS)
30% Tadić (DS)
14% Stanković (URS)
9.5% Dačić (SPS)
6% Jovanović (LDP)
4.5% Koštunica (DSS)
5.5% others

Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament)

32.5% CDU
32.5% SPD
12.5% Greens
6.5% FDP
6.5% Pirates
4% SSW
2.5% Left
3% Others

Armenia (Parliament)

37.5% Republican Party
31.5% Prosperous Armenia
9.5% Armenian National Congress
7.5% Rule of Law
6.5% Armenian Revolutionary Federation
5% Heritage
2.5% other
Logged
Simfan34
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13026


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2012, 08:55:54 pm »
Ignore

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?
Logged

The republicanism in this thread is disgusting.

We don't know how many cars this family has, only that they consume 1/4 of a $60k car per year.
Trump 2016
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37503
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2012, 09:18:03 pm »
Ignore

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?

Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling.
Logged

THE FRONTRUNNER

LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4418
Thailand


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2012, 04:21:30 am »
Ignore

may need to start an IRC chat for the shenanigans.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58767
India


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2012, 04:45:11 am »
Ignore

So basically we have no idea what's going to happen in Greece then? That's fun.
Yeah, I'm lovin' the suspense.

Alas, I'll presumably be quite drunk by the time I get back from Karlsruhe on sunday and have to work on monday, so my fun with all these elections may be somewhat delayed.
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
Bacon King
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17142
United States


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2012, 06:42:29 am »
Ignore

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?

Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling.

If the Golden Dawn manages 15%, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for them to be first place and win the fifty bonus seats. Especially if there's a fairly even split on the left, and the increase in XA support comes mostly at the expense of ND rather than ANEL. Something like this:

XA: 15%
ND: 14%
PASOK: 13%
SYRIZA: 12%
DIMAR: 11%
ANEL: 11%
KKE: 9%
LAOS: 5%
EcoGreen: 4%
others: 6%

That's a bit of a scary prospect.
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22410
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2012, 07:29:21 am »
Ignore

Polls in Germany always close at 18:00 Central European. I think France closes at 20:00? What about Greece?
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58767
India


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2012, 07:31:02 am »
Ignore

voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm)

Haha, that's great. And ought to lead to major differences in turnout between summer and winter elections.
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
Bacon King
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17142
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2012, 07:56:44 am »
Ignore

voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm)

Haha, that's great.

LOL. Odd and kind of an arcane law. Given that, say, Sunrise and sunset tomorrow in Rhodes, when rounded, are both an hour earlier than sunrise/sunset in Corfu, does this mean polling times in these places will be different? If an election is held at a time of year when sunset falls at exactly half past the hour in the center of Greece, does half of the country have to stop voting an hour before the other half?

Quote
And ought to lead to major differences in turnout between summer and winter elections.

A bit of cursory research indicates that isn't the case, surprisingly. For example, the June and November elections in 1989 had almost identical turnout.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 07:58:16 am by Bacon King »Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
Αλληλεγγύη
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34486
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2012, 08:16:51 am »
Ignore

voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm)

That's one of the most ridiculous election laws I've ever heard of.
Logged

RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines