The Big May 6 Prediction Thread

[Tender Branson]

Post your May 6 predictions here:

France (President, 2nd round)

52.3% Hollande
47.7% Sarkozy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012

Greece (Parliament)

19% ND
15% PASOK
14% SYRIZA
11% ANEL
11% KKE
10% XA
10% DIMAR
  3% Greens
  3% LAOS
  2% DRASI
  1% ANTARSYA
  1% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_2012

Serbia (Parliament & President)

32% SNS
30% DS
12% SPS
  6% LDP
  6% DSS
  5% SRS
  4% URS
  5% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_parliamentary_election,_2012

30% Nikolić (SNS)
29% Tadić (DS)
41% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_presidential_election,_2012

Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament)

31% CDU
30% SPD
12% Pirates
12% Greens
  6% FDP
  4% SSW
  2% Left
  3% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schleswig-Holstein_state_election,_2012

Armenia (Parliament)

41% Republican Party
34% Prosperous Armenia
25% Others

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_parliamentary_election,_2012

[Insula Dei]

May 6 is going to be an awful lot of fun if everything goes right.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Why do there not appear to have been any polls in Greece for about two weeks?

[Tender Branson]

Why do there not appear to have been any polls in Greece for about two weeks?

Poll ban law ahead of the election.

[Insula Dei]

Why do there not appear to have been any polls in Greece for about two weeks?

I seem to recall vaguely that Greece has government regulations banning polling during the last part of the campaign. Very well possible I'm mistaken though.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Huh, that's certainly considerably severer than, say, France's.

[Lief]

So basically we have no idea what's going to happen in Greece then? That's fun.

[Sibboleth]

Basically it means dice. Maybe there have been illegal polls?

[Meeker]

My understanding is that polling isn't actually illegal but rather the broadcasting of poll results is illegal.

[Sibboleth]

My understanding is that polling isn't actually illegal but rather the broadcasting of poll results is illegal.

And there, in a nutshell, is why Greece has gone to hell.

[Beet]

What's the rationale for these kinds of restrictions (campaigning or running ads on election day in France, broadcasting poll results in Greece)? It seems to be common in a lot of countries but I genuinely don't understand.

[Californian Tony]

What's the rationale for these kinds of restrictions (campaigning or running ads on election day in France, broadcasting poll results in Greece)? It seems to be common in a lot of countries but I genuinely don't understand.

Giving the voters a couple days to "chill out" from the mediatic noise and to reflect to their choice in intimacy.

[Meeker]

I don't know if this is the intended effect, but I suspect it helps minor parties and candidates by making their supporters less inclined to ditch them in favor of the front-running parties at the last minute.

It also prevents the annoying self-fulfilling polling surge problem we see sometimes (media says a party is surging in the polls when they aren't really and but then they actually are because voters become convinced they are and want to support a winner).

[Bacon King]

I'll take a shot at this...

France (President, 2nd round)

52.7% Hollande
47.3% Sarkozy

Greece (Parliament)

18% ND
16% SYRIZA
15% ANEL
11% PASOK
  9% KKE
  9% XA
  8% DIMAR
  4% Greens
  3% LAOS
  2% ANTARSYA
  5% Others (all other parties <1% each)

Serbia (Parliament & President)

35% SNS
28% DS
13% SPS
  6% DSS
  5% LDP
  4% SRS
  3% URS
  6% Others

35% Nikolić (SNS)
35% Tadić (DS)
 9% Dačić (SPS)
 8% Stanković (URS)
 7% Koštunica (DSS)
 3% Jovanović (LDP)
 3% others

Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament)

34% SPD
29% CDU
15% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% FDP
  4% SSW
  4% Left
  2% Others

Armenia (Parliament)

37% Republican Party
27% Prosperous Armenia
12% Armenian Revolutionary Federation
8% Heritage
6% Armenian National Congress
6% Rule of Law
2% other

[Lief]

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

[Zuza]

France (President, 2nd round)

51.2% Hollande
48.8% Sarkozy

Greece (Parliament)

20% ND
14.5% PASOK
13% SYRIZA
12% KKE
10% ANEL
8.5% XA
6% DIMAR
4% Greens
3% LAOS
3% DISY
1% DRASI
1% ANTARSYA
4% Others

Serbia (Parliament & President)

33% SNS
27% DS
12% SPS
7% LDP
6% DSS
5.5% SRS
4% URS
5.5% Others

30.5% Nikolić (SNS)
30% Tadić (DS)
14% Stanković (URS)
9.5% Dačić (SPS)
6% Jovanović (LDP)
4.5% Koštunica (DSS)
5.5% others

Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament)

32.5% CDU
32.5% SPD
12.5% Greens
6.5% FDP
6.5% Pirates
4% SSW
2.5% Left
3% Others

Armenia (Parliament)

37.5% Republican Party
31.5% Prosperous Armenia
9.5% Armenian National Congress
7.5% Rule of Law
6.5% Armenian Revolutionary Federation
5% Heritage
2.5% other

[Simfan34]

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?

[Lief]

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?

Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling.

[ModerateCoward]

may need to start an IRC chat for the shenanigans.

[Vasall des Midas]

So basically we have no idea what's going to happen in Greece then? That's fun.

Yeah, I'm lovin' the suspense.

Alas, I'll presumably be quite drunk by the time I get back from Karlsruhe on sunday and have to work on monday, so my fun with all these elections may be somewhat delayed.

[Bacon King]

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?

Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling.

If the Golden Dawn manages 15%, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for them to be first place and win the fifty bonus seats. Especially if there's a fairly even split on the left, and the increase in XA support comes mostly at the expense of ND rather than ANEL. Something like this:

XA: 15%
ND: 14%
PASOK: 13%
SYRIZA: 12%
DIMAR: 11%
ANEL: 11%
KKE: 9%
LAOS: 5%
EcoGreen: 4%
others: 6%

That's a bit of a scary prospect.

[I left.]

Polls in Germany always close at 18:00 Central European. I think France closes at 20:00? What about Greece?

[Vasall des Midas]

voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm)

Haha, that's great. And ought to lead to major differences in turnout between summer and winter elections.

[Bacon King]

voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm)

Haha, that's great.

LOL. Odd and kind of an arcane law. Given that, say, Sunrise and sunset tomorrow in Rhodes, when rounded, are both an hour earlier than sunrise/sunset in Corfu, does this mean polling times in these places will be different? If an election is held at a time of year when sunset falls at exactly half past the hour in the center of Greece, does half of the country have to stop voting an hour before the other half?

And ought to lead to major differences in turnout between summer and winter elections.

A bit of cursory research indicates that isn't the case, surprisingly. For example, the June and November elections in 1989 had almost identical turnout.

[Californian Tony]

voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm)

That's one of the most ridiculous election laws I've ever heard of.