The Big May 6 Prediction Thread

[Bacon King]

I'll take a shot at this...

France (President, 2nd round)

52.7% Hollande
47.3% Sarkozy

Greece (Parliament)

18% ND
16% SYRIZA
15% ANEL
11% PASOK
  9% KKE
  9% XA
  8% DIMAR
  4% Greens
  3% LAOS
  2% ANTARSYA
  5% Others (all other parties <1% each)

Serbia (Parliament & President)

35% SNS
28% DS
13% SPS
  6% DSS
  5% LDP
  4% SRS
  3% URS
  6% Others

35% Nikolić (SNS)
35% Tadić (DS)
 9% Dačić (SPS)
 8% Stanković (URS)
 7% Koštunica (DSS)
 3% Jovanović (LDP)
 3% others

Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament)

34% SPD
29% CDU
15% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% FDP
  4% SSW
  4% Left
  2% Others

Armenia (Parliament)

37% Republican Party
27% Prosperous Armenia
12% Armenian Revolutionary Federation
8% Heritage
6% Armenian National Congress
6% Rule of Law
2% other

[Bacon King]

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?

Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling.

If the Golden Dawn manages 15%, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for them to be first place and win the fifty bonus seats. Especially if there's a fairly even split on the left, and the increase in XA support comes mostly at the expense of ND rather than ANEL. Something like this:

XA: 15%
ND: 14%
PASOK: 13%
SYRIZA: 12%
DIMAR: 11%
ANEL: 11%
KKE: 9%
LAOS: 5%
EcoGreen: 4%
others: 6%

That's a bit of a scary prospect.

[Bacon King]

voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm)

Haha, that's great.

LOL. Odd and kind of an arcane law. Given that, say, Sunrise and sunset tomorrow in Rhodes, when rounded, are both an hour earlier than sunrise/sunset in Corfu, does this mean polling times in these places will be different? If an election is held at a time of year when sunset falls at exactly half past the hour in the center of Greece, does half of the country have to stop voting an hour before the other half?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A bit of cursory research indicates that isn't the case, surprisingly. For example, the June and November elections in 1989 had almost identical turnout.