AZ-Magellan Strategies (R): Romney leads by 9

[Tender Branson]

This survey was commissioned by DC London, Inc., an Arizona‐based political consulting
firm with offices in Phoenix and Washington, D.C.

...

Mitt Romney............................................................................... 52%
Barack Obama ........................................................................... 43%

Who did you vote for in the 2008 Presidential election?

John McCain................................................................................ 51%
Barack Obama ........................................................................... 41%

http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Magellan-Arizona-General-Election-Survey-Release-050312.pdf

[cope1989]

hmm, this is definitely far off from the previous AZ poll we had. But based on Arizona'a previous presidential choices, I'll say that this one is closer to the median.

I think Obama will make a big push here, which will force Romney to play defense, but I still think Romney is the favorite.

However, in 10 years AZ will be Southern Cali Part Deux

[ajb]

hmm, this is definitely far off from the previous AZ poll we had. But based on Arizona'a previous presidential choices, I'll say that this one is closer to the median.

I think Obama will make a big push here, which will force Romney to play defense, but I still think Romney is the favorite.

However, in 10 years AZ will be Southern Cali Part Deux

According to this poll, Romney wins whites in AZ, 52-43, and wins Hispanics, 52-42. Obviously, if Romney were to win Hispanics in AZ, the state would be his, but this result seems unlikely.

[mondale84]

Troll poll

...but seriously guys, this is Magellan we're talking about...Obama is AT LEAST 15 points ahead with Hispanics in Arizona and probably more like 20-25 ahead.

[Ben Romney]

LOL Obama won`t win a state he lost in 2008!!! No way!!!

[krazen1211]

QCOOJP!

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

I have to agree with the previous two posters on this one. It's not like AZ's even a tossup.

[pbrower2a]

LOL Obama won`t win a state he lost in 2008!!! No way!!!

I cannot yet rule out President Obama winning Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, or Montana while losing Indiana. Those are the only possible pickups for him unless he wins a 400+ landslide in electoral votes.

John McCain won the state by a lesser margin than the usual advantage of a Favorite Son.

[NVGonzalez]

Romney leading by 10 with Hispanics? Kill it with fire before it lays eggs.

[cope1989]

hmm, this is definitely far off from the previous AZ poll we had. But based on Arizona'a previous presidential choices, I'll say that this one is closer to the median.

I think Obama will make a big push here, which will force Romney to play defense, but I still think Romney is the favorite.

However, in 10 years AZ will be Southern Cali Part Deux

According to this poll, Romney wins whites in AZ, 52-43, and wins Hispanics, 52-42. Obviously, if Romney were to win Hispanics in AZ, the state would be his, but this result seems unlikely.

Ooh, didn't read the cross tabs. No way Romney wins Hispanics there or even comes close. Total junk poll. I rescind my previous commentary.

The state will be very competitive this year.

[krazen1211]

hmm, this is definitely far off from the previous AZ poll we had. But based on Arizona'a previous presidential choices, I'll say that this one is closer to the median.

I think Obama will make a big push here, which will force Romney to play defense, but I still think Romney is the favorite.

However, in 10 years AZ will be Southern Cali Part Deux

According to this poll, Romney wins whites in AZ, 52-43, and wins Hispanics, 52-42. Obviously, if Romney were to win Hispanics in AZ, the state would be his, but this result seems unlikely.

Certainly Republicans typically do much better with Arizona whites.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Troll poll

...but seriously guys, this is Magellan we're talking about...Obama is AT LEAST 15 points ahead with Hispanics in Arizona and probably more like 20-25 ahead.

About 47% of Arizona's Hispanics in 2004 voted for what I interpret to be the equivalent of CA's Prop 187, denying Illegals welfare. I wouldn't be surprised if a poll said that 40%-45% of AZ Hispanics approve of the "Arizona Immigration Law".

Obama probably leads amongst Hispanics, but not by 20 or 25.

[OC]

So, much for the Rocky Mnt poll showing Obama leading, this is a GOP state.

[ajb]

Troll poll

...but seriously guys, this is Magellan we're talking about...Obama is AT LEAST 15 points ahead with Hispanics in Arizona and probably more like 20-25 ahead.

About 47% of Arizona's Hispanics in 2004 voted for what I interpret to be the equivalent of CA's Prop 187, denying Illegals welfare. I wouldn't be surprised if a poll said that 40%-45% of AZ Hispanics approve of the "Arizona Immigration Law".

Obama probably leads amongst Hispanics, but not by 20 or 25.

Would you be surprised by a poll which showed that 81% of registered Hispanic voters in Arizona opposed SB-1070?

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/06/08/20100608arizona-immigration-law-backlash.html

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Troll poll

...but seriously guys, this is Magellan we're talking about...Obama is AT LEAST 15 points ahead with Hispanics in Arizona and probably more like 20-25 ahead.

About 47% of Arizona's Hispanics in 2004 voted for what I interpret to be the equivalent of CA's Prop 187, denying Illegals welfare. I wouldn't be surprised if a poll said that 40%-45% of AZ Hispanics approve of the "Arizona Immigration Law".

Obama probably leads amongst Hispanics, but not by 20 or 25.

Would you be surprised by a poll which showed that 81% of registered Hispanic voters in Arizona opposed SB-1070?

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/06/08/20100608arizona-immigration-law-backlash.html

No, not at all. My point is that the group is very volatile and that they tend to not vote like Hispanics do in most places. 

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Only 28% of Hispanics voted for Jan Brewer, who championed the law and signed it. But 40% voted for John McCain after he had supported and defended the bill as "necessary under the circumstances".

The Rocky Mountain Poll claims that Romney is getting only 26% amongst Hispanics in Arizona.


My estimates at the present would be that Romney is somewhere in the mid 30's (with the possibly of an 5 to 8 point improvement depending on how he targets that group going forward) and with Obama around 50% or so.

[ajb]

Only 28% of Hispanics voted for Jan Brewer, who championed the law and signed it. But 40% voted for John McCain after he had supported and defended the bill as "necessary under the circumstances".

The Rocky Mountain Poll claims that Romney is getting only 26% amongst Hispanics in Arizona.


My estimates at the present would be that Romney is somewhere in the mid 30's (with the possibly of an 5 to 8 point improvement depending on how he targets that group going forward) and with Obama around 50% or so.

My hunch is that Romney will perform at the lower end of your range in November -- McCain held the Hispanic vote in 2010, but he had a weak challenger, and also a history of supporting immigration reform (at least when there was an "r" in the month), and a history of support with Hispanics in the state. I'd guess AZ, like TX and FL, will remain a state where Republicans overperform with Hispanic voters, but by less than in the past.

[Invisible Obama]

SB-1070 is a game changer for Hispanic voters in Arizona. Obama won 56% of Hispanics in 2008, that could easily move up to 60% or more this year.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=420120502120

[pbrower2a]

Blatant R poll, probably commissioned by the Party.