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Author Topic: Is Obama more popular than he ought to be?  (Read 1342 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: May 03, 2012, 03:08:31 pm »
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Read this article in the 538 blog. Basically it examines historical approval rating for Presidents and how they correlate with the national mood. In the end, this blogger claims that Obama's approval rating doesn't correspond with current economic conditions and the national mood, which is still negative. Therefore, he should have had significantly lower approvals throughout his term

I think there's some truth to this. Look at Bush's approval rating in 1992. The recession was mild compared to the one we've dealing with over the past few years, yet his approvals were much lower.

So is Obama's base stronger, is he more likeable, are more Americans still blaming Bush? Check out the article, it's really interesting.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/02/is-obama-more-popular-than-he-should-be/
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2012, 09:22:28 am »
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No doubt.

The fact that Carter and Bush were so easily kicked out during even a mild recovering recession such as in 1992 shows that it's become quite hard to defeat incumbent Presidents.

Only two people I've spoken to in the last year or so have stated they plan on voting for Obama again, all the others have switched. Younger people I know, four of them off the top of my head are first time voters who told me they're voting for Romney. (They openly asked me who I was voting for and said they were voting Romney before I even mentioned his name)

But somewhere there is a large base of Obama voters, aside from African Americans and Hispanics. I'm not sure if it's women or union workers, but something isn't adding up.

I have a sneaking suspicion that come the end of the Conventions in September, Mitt Romney's chances may be significantly increased. The fact that he is even as strong as he is now is a very strong showing for him.
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2012, 10:36:36 am »
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He's popular, but I don't like how he's running the country.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2012, 10:53:16 am »
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I wouldn't argue that it's him personally, but just that the "other choice" is just that weak.
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2012, 10:56:43 am »
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Obama is popular because Congress and the Republican Party are so unpopular.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2012, 11:08:56 am »
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He is, but I know a lot of people who have switched over to Romney it's kind of scary for his prospects.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2012, 11:09:58 am »
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What's funny is that I like Bill Clinton's personality but didn't care much for his politics.

With Obama, he's done some things I agree with (not closing GITMO, being opposed to same sex marriage, assassinating bin laden in a sovereign foreign country, ect) but it's his personality that turns me off.
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2012, 11:10:12 am »
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Because

A) His (and the Democratic Party's, pretty much) base is minority groups who have remained fairly loyal, considering the alternative.

B) He's personally well liked and popular, certainly moreso than the last Democratic President, which is probably worth more than you might think.

Only two people I've spoken to in the last year or so have stated they plan on voting for Obama again, all the others have switched.

Oh well, that settles it. Why even bother having the election?
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2012, 11:46:26 am »
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Oh well, that settles it. Why even bother having the election?
We have elections so this country doesn't turn to a one party dictatorship like some people on this forum want.
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Nagas
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2012, 11:49:17 am »
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Obama is popular because Congress and the Republican Party are so unpopular.

I think this is part of the reason. Call it the Truman Effect.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2012, 11:56:03 am »
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Consider the alternative, who is indecisive and very weird at times. When you are running against a flake, you get better ratings.
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oakvale
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2012, 12:05:25 pm »
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Oh well, that settles it. Why even bother having the election?
We have elections so this country doesn't turn to a one party dictatorship like some people on this forum want.

...
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King
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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2012, 12:07:06 pm »
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I think he's less popular than he ought to be. 
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milhouse24
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« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2012, 12:20:34 pm »
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The mainstream media, except for Fox news, is still very pro-Obama and perhaps out of guilt, isn't really hammering him very much on things like the economy.  There's almost this complacency feeling amongst the media to try to ride out the economy and 'hope' it gets better if we have more patience and give it another 6 months, and then another 6 months. 

the media doesn't want to make personal attacks on Obama, who has a fairly clean personal life in the past 5 years.  He hasn't been caught in any affairs, or drunken mumblings.  He also has a young family, and the media thinks of this as a Kennedy Camelot era. 

The personal attacks that have been publicized like the birth certificate issue are silly and juvenile that turned off a lot of indepedent voters. 

But I think once, Romney gets his footing, he'll try to bring down Obama's popularity. 
The GOP primaries almost helped Obama's popularity because Newt and Santorum aren't very likeable guys to independent voters.  Romney is more likeable than Newt or Santorum. 

Romney's personality is basically and average-minded, even-keeled, white guy. 
If citizens become disenchanted with Obama for whatever reason, they would be willing to vote for Romney since he is an inoffensive, bland person, with an eager-beaver willingness to please
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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2012, 12:49:03 pm »
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Yes. He'll probably win by a Bush 2004 margin, and see his ratings drop similarly in his second term.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2012, 01:00:13 pm »
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Oh well, that settles it. Why even bother having the election?
We have elections so this country doesn't turn to a one party dictatorship like some people on this forum want.

Everybody wants a dictatorship, so long as they're the dictator...
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2012, 02:15:58 pm »
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Obama will not be a popular guy if he wins re-election. I'm surprised he's so popular after these last four years.

I was thinking... Bush's last term and Obama's first term have been a pretty horrendous eight years. Could you imagine the sh**t Kerry would've had to deal with if he had been a two term president?

(Mind you, Obama created a lot of problems on his own by trying to accomplish too much at once, and then, in the end, not really accomplishing anything at all.)
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Beet
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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2012, 02:27:11 pm »
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That's funny, their chart of what the approval rating 'should' be (black):



vs what it actually is (red), shows that the actual rating is consistently higher than the predicted one. That means there's something wrong with their model, not the rating. Most notably, Reagan and Eisenhower's second term both had ratings higher than predicted by the model by a similar margin as Obama. Similarly, Bush II, Clinton, and the first half of Bush I's presidencies all had ratings consistently higher than predicted by the model. So did Carter, Ford, and pre-Nixon Watergate, and Kennedy. In fact, the only President who the model predicts well is Johnson.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2012, 03:57:00 pm »
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Obama will not be a popular guy if he wins re-election. I'm surprised he's so popular after these last four years.

I was thinking... Bush's last term and Obama's first term have been a pretty horrendous eight years. Could you imagine the sh**t Kerry would've had to deal with if he had been a two term president?

(Mind you, Obama created a lot of problems on his own by trying to accomplish too much at once, and then, in the end, not really accomplishing anything at all.)

For two years President Obama accomplished much through legislation. Since then he has accomplished practically nothing through legislation. President Obama is much more popular than Congress, so draw such conclusions as you think appropriate. 
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2012, 05:30:04 pm »
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I love when people say that everyone they've talked to has gone sour on Obama. Talk about an echo chamber. Maybe they never liked Obama, and now they're just more comfortable saying it. Or maybe, just maybe, the vast majority of people who voted for him in 2008 will vote for him again, simply because of the alternative.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2012, 08:17:10 pm »
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I love when people say that everyone they've talked to has gone sour on Obama. Talk about an echo chamber. Maybe they never liked Obama, and now they're just more comfortable saying it. Or maybe, just maybe, the vast majority of people who voted for him in 2008 will vote for him again, simply because of the alternative.

So, far more than the majority of Americans voted for Obama, so in essence, he has nowhere to go but down in popularity.  You may think it will be another 49 state re-election like Reagan, but its highly unlikely. 

Therefore, there are more people who for whatever reason went from voting for Bush in 2004 to voting for Obama in 2008.  Now they have soured on Obama.  These people are also called swing voters.  If you are between the ages of 20-30, you are not a swing voter. 

A swing voter is someone from a swing state, perhaps in the midwest, is a white catholic suburban soccer mom or nascar dad over the age of 30, who doesn't have a college degree, and is working a blue-collar union job.  These voters are worried about their paychecks and usually vote for whoever candidate is more competent on the economic issues. 

Maybe they never liked Obama, but they obviously liked Obama more than the elderly McCain. 

So now that the matchup is between Obama and a pragmatic Harvard educated law and mba grad Romney, it is going to be a more competitive campaign. 

There are going to be a lot of Bush 2004 voters who will be attracted to Romney's message.  If Romney can keep all the Bush 2004 voters, then he can win the election. 
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2012, 09:42:08 pm »
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I love when people say that everyone they've talked to has gone sour on Obama. Talk about an echo chamber. Maybe they never liked Obama, and now they're just more comfortable saying it. Or maybe, just maybe, the vast majority of people who voted for him in 2008 will vote for him again, simply because of the alternative.

So, far more than the majority of Americans voted for Obama, so in essence, he has nowhere to go but down in popularity.  You may think it will be another 49 state re-election like Reagan, but its highly unlikely. 

Therefore, there are more people who for whatever reason went from voting for Bush in 2004 to voting for Obama in 2008.  Now they have soured on Obama.  These people are also called swing voters.  If you are between the ages of 20-30, you are not a swing voter. 

A swing voter is someone from a swing state, perhaps in the midwest, is a white catholic suburban soccer mom or nascar dad over the age of 30, who doesn't have a college degree, and is working a blue-collar union job.  These voters are worried about their paychecks and usually vote for whoever candidate is more competent on the economic issues. 

Maybe they never liked Obama, but they obviously liked Obama more than the elderly McCain. 

So now that the matchup is between Obama and a pragmatic Harvard educated law and mba grad Romney, it is going to be a more competitive campaign. 

There are going to be a lot of Bush 2004 voters who will be attracted to Romney's message.  If Romney can keep all the Bush 2004 voters, then he can win the election. 

You misunderstood me. I was proposing that maybe many of the vocal critics of Obama these days are people who didn't vote for him in 2008, gave him maybe a one week honeymoon, and then decided to bash him for the rest of his term. So they can legitimately say, "well I gave him a shot," when they really never gave him a shot at all. I have heard this from many, many people.

And as for this supposed swing towards Romney because he's oh so competent....whatever you say
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« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2012, 09:43:32 pm »
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I love when people say that everyone they've talked to has gone sour on Obama. Talk about an echo chamber. Maybe they never liked Obama, and now they're just more comfortable saying it.

Nope.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2012, 12:48:30 pm »
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I love when people say that everyone they've talked to has gone sour on Obama. Talk about an echo chamber. Maybe they never liked Obama, and now they're just more comfortable saying it. Or maybe, just maybe, the vast majority of people who voted for him in 2008 will vote for him again, simply because of the alternative.

So, far more than the majority of Americans voted for Obama, so in essence, he has nowhere to go but down in popularity.  You may think it will be another 49 state re-election like Reagan, but its highly unlikely. 

Therefore, there are more people who for whatever reason went from voting for Bush in 2004 to voting for Obama in 2008.  Now they have soured on Obama.  These people are also called swing voters.  If you are between the ages of 20-30, you are not a swing voter. 

A swing voter is someone from a swing state, perhaps in the midwest, is a white catholic suburban soccer mom or nascar dad over the age of 30, who doesn't have a college degree, and is working a blue-collar union job.  These voters are worried about their paychecks and usually vote for whoever candidate is more competent on the economic issues. 

Maybe they never liked Obama, but they obviously liked Obama more than the elderly McCain. 

So now that the matchup is between Obama and a pragmatic Harvard educated law and mba grad Romney, it is going to be a more competitive campaign. 

There are going to be a lot of Bush 2004 voters who will be attracted to Romney's message.  If Romney can keep all the Bush 2004 voters, then he can win the election. 

You misunderstood me. I was proposing that maybe many of the vocal critics of Obama these days are people who didn't vote for him in 2008, gave him maybe a one week honeymoon, and then decided to bash him for the rest of his term. So they can legitimately say, "well I gave him a shot," when they really never gave him a shot at all. I have heard this from many, many people.

And as for this supposed swing towards Romney because he's oh so competent....whatever you say

It has now been almost 4 years since his election in 2008.  Maybe they didn't like Obama in 2009 or 2010 or 2011.  But it is now 2012 and if people want to be vocal about their disapproval of the state of the country, then that is completely their right to freedom of political speech.  I would also like to point out that Republicans won an overwhelming number of elections in 2010, so your conclusion that people are criticizing Obama now is false.  People have been criticizing Obama as early as 2010 because they have gripes about the Obama administration, which is perfectly within their rights as American citizens and their rights as voters who overwhelmingly prefer Republicans in 2010, and most likely in 2012 as well.  So, you are maybe willingly or ignorantly ignoring the Republican successes in 2010.  In addition, it has been 4 years, so people either like Obama or they don't like Obama and what he has done or not done during these 4 years, and they have a legitimate excuse.  You may think that Obama has had the best 4 years in American history, but there are plenty of people who disagree with you. 

Romney has an MBA and Law Degree from Harvard university so I don't know why you would not call him competent. 

Obama just has a law degree from Harvard and you think he's a genius. 
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old timey villain
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« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2012, 05:11:48 pm »
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again, whatever you say
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