Democracy Corps (D): Obama/Romney tied

[Tender Branson]

April 28 - May 1, 2012
1000 Likely Voters

Obama Approval: 45-50

Total Democrat Barack Obama ....................................... 47
Total Republican Mitt Romney ........................................ 47

Total Democrat Barack Obama ....................................... 45
Total Republican Mitt Romney ........................................ 43
Total Independent Buddy Roemer ................................... 7

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/2012-May-1-DCorps-FQ_updated_WEB.pdf

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

Democracy Corpse? That sounds like a weird name for a pollster.

Also, from what I've seen of him, Roemer actually seems closer to Obama than Romney, but he's taking more from Mittbot. Thoughts?

[Simfan34]

Is Roemer serious now?

[Mr. Morden]

Is this a polling outfit that believes democracy is dead, and they're poking the corpse?

[cavalcade]

I believe Branson may be expressing his opinion that this is a junk poll.

It does seem to have a very strong likely voter screen, so no excessive reactions guys.

[Vasall des Midas]

This is a poll of the graveyard vote. Both parties commit fraud to an even extent is what it's saying.

[Senator Clarence]

Why poll Roemer and not Johnson?

[The Mikado]

47-47 nationally doesn't really correspond well with what we're seeing at the state level.  Either the state polls are wrong, or the race is something closer to Obama 50-Romney 47.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

47-47 nationally doesn't really correspond well with what we're seeing at the state level.  Either the state polls are wrong, or the race is something closer to Obama 50-Romney 47.

It's a "thing" that incumbents perform better in state polls relative to national polls pre-Labor Day.  I believe we saw the same thing in '04.

[Mr. Morden]

47-47 nationally doesn't really correspond well with what we're seeing at the state level.  Either the state polls are wrong, or the race is something closer to Obama 50-Romney 47.

If you take out Gallup and Rasmussen, then the average national lead for Obama over Romney is about 4 points, which is right in line with the state polls:

http://electionate.com/2012/05/02/its-not-the-electoral-college-obama-just-leads/

I think whatever discrepancy exists between the state and national polls can be explained by a combination of the timing of the polling and the different house effects of the polling firms polling nationally vs. statewide.

[Meeker]

Democracy Corpse? That sounds like a weird name for a pollster.

Also, from what I've seen of him, Roemer actually seems closer to Obama than Romney, but he's taking more from Mittbot. Thoughts?

Roemer is splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Doesn't have anything to do with ideology.

Also the 7% has nothing to do with Roemer; pretty sure you could put anyone and they would get 7%.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Why's Roemer on 7%?

[For Oklahoma]

My reaction to Roemer polling 7%:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzqiPvGrkTo

[Umengus]

Democracy corps (lead by jame carville) is a very good pollster.

party id: D 37 R 31 I 29 (8 pure I)

JA: 45 %

[Stranger in a strange land]

My reaction to Roemer polling 7%:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzqiPvGrkTo

Because third parties always overpoll. Nader did in 2000, 2004, and 2008. There were a few polls showing Buchanan in the 10% range in early 2000, but he ended up getting less than half of a percent on election day.

[oakvale]

Oh Jesus, Umengus is back.

Prepare for months of half-baked "analysis" of party ID numbers.

[For Oklahoma]

Oh Jesus, Umengus is back.

Prepare for months of half-baked "analysis" of party ID numbers.

hahahaha

[ChairmanSanchez]

My reaction to Roemer polling 7%:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzqiPvGrkTo

Because third parties always overpoll. Nader did in 2000, 2004, and 2008. There were a few polls showing Buchanan in the 10% range in early 2000, but he ended up getting less than half of a percent on election day.

Look how Barr turned out.