Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 21, 2014, 11:41:10 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | |-+  why did Humphrey do so (relatively) well in Texas in 1968?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: why did Humphrey do so (relatively) well in Texas in 1968?  (Read 2901 times)
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2332
United States


View Profile
« on: May 04, 2012, 09:01:22 am »
Ignore

This is something I've always been fascinated by looking at election maps. It seemed at the time that Texas, out of any of the southern states, had the largest "bloc" of liberal voters in comparison to the rest of the south.

What's interesting is that Wallace wasn't that strong in the state compared to other southern states and there were certain pockets where Humphrey won an outright majority of the votes including: Central Texas (Bell, Williamson, Milam, Robertson etc) and in general the old 11th district; a pocket of counties in the west central part of the state such as Hardeman, Foard, Cottle, Haskell, Throckmorton etc and all of South Texas (Corpus Christi, Brownsville, Laredo, McAllen).

There were also the cities, which compared to other southern states, were more loyally Democrat. Humphrey won the [city of] San Antonio with around 70 percent of the vote and won the 8th district (northern and eastern sides of Houston) with 54 percent.
Logged

-1.38, -1.38
wormyguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8681
Liechtenstein


Political Matrix
E: 4.52, S: -1.57

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2012, 09:07:55 am »
Ignore

Texas had the strongest pro-national party Democratic machine (not "liberal").  Also LBJ.
Logged
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17864
Burkina Faso


Political Matrix
E: -8.45, S: -4.26

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2012, 09:12:49 am »
Ignore

Johnson.
Logged

So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!
Rockingham
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 526


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2012, 10:27:19 am »
Ignore

I wouldn't be have surprised if their was some corruption behind it as well. Election fraud was pretty damn common back then(not so much today due to technology making it harder to get away with), and Texas had a particularly corrupt reputation.
Logged
Mechaman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14163
Jamaica


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2012, 12:10:14 pm »
Ignore

Bitter die hard yellow dogged loyalty.

That's why.
Logged



17:20   bore   the point of atlasia is to achieve things which you can then use as pick up lines
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16195


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2012, 03:47:56 pm »
Ignore

An acquaintance who was a kid in Texas in the '80s once said that her teacher used to tell her that Texas was a Democratic state and California was a Republican state.
Logged

They call me PR
Progressive Realist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5523
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2012, 03:51:25 pm »
Ignore

An acquaintance who was a kid in Texas in the '80s once said that her teacher used to tell her that Texas was a Democratic state and California was a Republican state.

Which was true at the time, of course.
Logged
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2332
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2012, 04:50:44 pm »
Ignore

An acquaintance who was a kid in Texas in the '80s once said that her teacher used to tell her that Texas was a Democratic state and California was a Republican state.

Which was true at the time, of course.

for Texas yes but California not really. Both Texas and California were really swing states at the national level, and democrat at the local level. Throughout much of the 70s and 80s, they both had a split senate delegation with Cranston and Bentsen and then Tower/Gramm/Hayakawa/Wilson. CA was probably more republican at the gubernatorial level having elected Reagan and Deukemukijan while Bill Clements was the only republican governor of Texas during that era.

At the congressional level, CA usually had a majority democrat delegation, usually around 60 percent of the seats. In Texas OTOH, the democrats always had at least 2/3 of the U.S. House seats. In the legislative level, California usually had between 55-60% of the legislative offices while Texas often had 65-70% democrat majorities.

The main reason is that areas like Eastern Ventura County, Orange County, much of San Diego, and parts of the San Gabriel Valley made up a larger % of the statewide vote at the time. Texas had comparable areas like West Houston and North Dallas that were just as republican, but didn't make up that much of the electorate.
Logged

-1.38, -1.38
Indy Texas
independentTX
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5217


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2012, 04:56:53 pm »
Ignore

Texas never jumped on the Lost Cause bandwagon with the Deep South. The state Democratic Party backed Truman over Thurmond in '48 and Humphrey over Wallace in '68. I attribute that to the following:

1) Texans were a major part of the national Democratic establishment for most of the 20th century. You had powerbrokers in elected office (John Nance Garner, Sam Rayburn, LBJ, Wright Patman) and behind the scenes (Jesse H. Jones, Robert Strauss). It would have been counterintuitive for Texas to buck the national party when the national party was so good to them.

2) Integration was not the inflammatory issue in Texas that it was in the Deep South and in Northern inner cities. There basically weren't/aren't any blacks west of the Brazos River, so it was a non-issue for half the state. Houston's business establishment and the black community had a gentlemen's agreement that desegregation would be phased in gradually (i.e. movie theaters one month, swimming pools the next). That basically leaves Dallas (which by that time had declared allegiance to Goldwater-style Sunbelt conservatism rather than Dixiecrat revanchism) and rural East Texas (which, coincidentally, is the only part of the state where Wallace got any votes). As a result, the conservative Democrats either stuck with Humphrey or voted for Nixon.
Logged

Try to spot your dick without looking in a mirror. Sleepy yet?
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10097
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2012, 07:07:12 pm »
Ignore

The Dems maximized the black turnout all over Texas including Dallas-FT Worth before 1980. Once the Bushs came along the blacks weren't anymore the swing group in prez elections in Texas.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 07:09:46 pm by OC »Logged
Warner for President '16
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30667
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2012, 07:08:03 pm »
Ignore

Logged

Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
Indy Texas
independentTX
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5217


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2012, 07:46:35 pm »
Ignore



That'd make sense except that LBJ was privately for Rockefeller in '68.
Logged

Try to spot your dick without looking in a mirror. Sleepy yet?
GPORTER
gporter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7347
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2012, 12:27:48 am »
Ignore

Would Humphrey still have carried Texas if George HW Bush had been on the opposite ticket?
Logged

the birth of modern america & onward timeline(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new)results of four most previous elections.....
election 1912
Underwood: 267 Cutchens: 264 Lafolette: 0 Debs: 0 266 to win
election 1916
Underwood (i): 224 Curtis: 254 Johnson: 53 266 to win
House Underwood (i): 26 Curtis: 12 Johnson: 10 25 to win
election 1920
Roosevelt: 260 Lowden: 271 McAdoo: 0 266 to win
election 1924
Thomas: 262 Lowden (i): 269 266 to win
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17864
Burkina Faso


Political Matrix
E: -8.45, S: -4.26

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2012, 05:44:21 am »
Ignore



That'd make sense except that LBJ was privately for Rockefeller in '68.

He supported Humphrey in the general.
Logged

morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5602
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2012, 07:43:17 am »
Ignore



That'd make sense except that LBJ was privately for Rockefeller in '68.

I thought he was privately for Humphrey, even in the primary?
Logged
GPORTER
gporter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7347
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2012, 12:10:29 pm »
Ignore



That'd make sense except that LBJ was privately for Rockefeller in '68.

I thought he was privately for Humphrey, even in the primary?

I think Kennedy being in the race and all that happened following Johnson had an easier way to keep his favorite candidate a secret. We may never know who exactly he supported during the primary.
Logged

the birth of modern america & onward timeline(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new)results of four most previous elections.....
election 1912
Underwood: 267 Cutchens: 264 Lafolette: 0 Debs: 0 266 to win
election 1916
Underwood (i): 224 Curtis: 254 Johnson: 53 266 to win
House Underwood (i): 26 Curtis: 12 Johnson: 10 25 to win
election 1920
Roosevelt: 260 Lowden: 271 McAdoo: 0 266 to win
election 1924
Thomas: 262 Lowden (i): 269 266 to win
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14879
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2012, 12:32:34 pm »
Ignore

Re LBJ's covert Rocky support: Sources are far from unanimous on this. To me the pro-Rocky arguments are more convincing than the antis but that's just my personal opinion.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15214
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2012, 04:32:47 pm »
Ignore

Johnson was almost certainly a factor; home state pride and all that.

Wallace drew 19 percent of the vote, and unlike in much of the rest of the country, he probably drew disproportionately from Nixon in the South.

Texas was in general a D-leaning state at the time (1972 was the first time since Reconstruction that it was more R than the national average), so it shouldn't be a surprise that it would vote for a Democratic candidate who lost narrowly nationally.
Logged
They call me PR
Progressive Realist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5523
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2012, 01:19:15 pm »
Ignore

The Texas GOP was still developing in the emerging suburbs of the state. Texans were still willing to vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976 (Southern evangelical Christian Democrat). It helped Carter that Ford was a moderate Northern Republican.

It was not until 1980 that Texas really became a firmly Republican state. Both Reagan and Bush Sr. contributed to this development. However, it should be noted that some of the rural counties in Texas and other Southern states that voted for Wallace, also voted for Carter in both 1976 and 1980. It was the suburbs of Southern cities that provided the base of support for the GOP to emerge as the dominant party in the South.
Logged
wormyguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8681
Liechtenstein


Political Matrix
E: 4.52, S: -1.57

View Profile
« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2012, 01:21:47 pm »
Ignore

The Texas GOP was still developing in the emerging suburbs of the state. Texans were still willing to vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976 (Southern evangelical Christian Democrat). It helped Carter that Ford was a moderate Northern Republican.

It was not until 1980 that Texas really became a firmly Republican state. Both Reagan and Bush Sr. contributed to this development. However, it should be noted that some of the rural counties in Texas and other Southern states that voted for Wallace, also voted for Carter in both 1976 and 1980. It was the suburbs of Southern cities that provided the base of support for the GOP to emerge as the dominant party in the South.

Texas also was a solid Democratic state at the non-Presidential level until 1994.  I actually wouldn't say it could be confirmed as a solid Republican state for President until 1992 when they didn't vote for Clinton.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14519


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2012, 05:30:47 pm »
Ignore

Saying solid at the state level until 1994 is a bit of an exaggeration: Texas' slide towards the GOP at the state level really starts in 1978 and is pretty prominent through the 1980s.  Ann Richards winning by the skin of her teeth in 1990 just delayed the inevitable.
Logged

Einzige is a poltroon who cowardly turns down duel challenges he should be honor-bound to accept. The Code Duello authorizes you to mock and belittle such a pathetic honorless scoundrel.
Warner for President '16
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30667
United States


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: June 04, 2012, 09:24:19 am »
Ignore

Would Humphrey still have carried Texas if George HW Bush had been on the opposite ticket?

No, not at all.  HW wasn't exactly a household name (after all, he lost the 1970 race to Bentsen by 7%).
Logged

Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
Pope Callixtus IV
Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37633


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: June 04, 2012, 02:08:26 pm »
Ignore

An acquaintance who was a kid in Texas in the '80s once said that her teacher used to tell her that Texas was a Democratic state and California was a Republican state.

Which was true at the time, of course.

for Texas yes but California not really.

From 1948 to 1988 California voted only twice for a Democratic presidential nominee (Truman in 1948 and Johnson in 1964). So it was a Republican state in presidential elections.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines