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Author Topic: Will Barack Obama win Utah?  (Read 1099 times)
mondale84
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« on: May 04, 2012, 04:29:03 pm »
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Will he? I mean the latest poll (http://publicpolicypolling.typepad.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_UT_07141205.pdf) shows Obama only 32 points behind Romney and if Romney is discovered to be a polygamist who eats babies (anything is possible in the next six months) then I could see Obama being seriously competitive in Utah and maybe even winning. Again, anything is possible with global warming.

Let me know your thoughts...
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oakvale
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2012, 04:31:18 pm »
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It depends. If the US economy suddenly starts creating two million jobs a month and Romney's involved in fifty different scandals, this is quite reasonable.

I will look forward to bumping this when Obama wins Utah.
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2012, 04:35:43 pm »
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He was only down 2 points to Palin in a poll last year.
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2012, 04:36:58 pm »
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So I just found out that Paul McCartney died in 1966.

Like the OP said, anything is possible.
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2012, 04:39:32 pm »
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The lead margin for Romney over Obama in Utah is 40%. Obama's lead margin in Massachusetts is only 10%.

Your attempt to mock me falls flat if you look at those numbers. A 5% increase in Romney's vote is very plausible, whereas a 20% increase for Obama would be entirely unprecedented.
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oakvale
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2012, 04:41:40 pm »
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The lead margin for Romney over Obama in Utah is 40%. Obama's lead margin in Massachusetts is only 10%.

Your attempt to mock me falls flat if you look at those numbers. A 5% increase in Romney's vote is very plausible, whereas a 20% increase for Obama would be entirely unprecedented.

Obama won Massachussets by 25 points. Ignore Scott Rasmussen's trolling and YouGov, which is a really terrible poster (don't they do online polls? lol).

Romney will probably do a little better than McCain. He might lose by 20 or 18 or whatever instead of 25. That would be about a five point increase, sure. Smiley
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mondale84
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2012, 04:43:16 pm »
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The lead margin for Romney over Obama in Utah is 40%. Obama's lead margin in Massachusetts is only 10%.

Your attempt to mock me falls flat if you look at those numbers. A 5% increase in Romney's vote is very plausible, whereas a 20% increase for Obama would be entirely unprecedented.

Why? Barack Obama could turn into the new messiah over the course of the next six months and the entire Mormon clan could end up singing kumbaya in a circle with him. Again, anything is possible. Also, that poll is a year old, I am sure Utahans have warmed up to the new messiah since.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2012, 04:45:56 pm »
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The lead margin for Romney over Obama in Utah is 40%. Obama's lead margin in Massachusetts is only 10%.

Your attempt to mock me falls flat if you look at those numbers. A 5% increase in Romney's vote is very plausible, whereas a 20% increase for Obama would be entirely unprecedented.

Obama won Massachussets by 25 points. Ignore Scott Rasmussen's trolling and YouGov, which is a really terrible poster (don't they do online polls? lol).

Romney will probably do a little better than McCain. He might lose by 20 or 18 or whatever instead of 25. That would be about a five point increase, sure. Smiley
But theirs also various PPP polls. They're all over the place though... some backing me up, some contradicting me. And theirs a Suffolk University poll.
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oakvale
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2012, 04:47:38 pm »
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Oh, by the way, even ignoring polling (which you yourself suggested doing in that thread based on the fact that Indiana wasn't considered a swing state early on), there's no logical reason that Romney would win or even come reasonably close in MA. None.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2012, 04:48:38 pm »
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The lead margin for Romney over Obama in Utah is 40%. Obama's lead margin in Massachusetts is only 10%.

Your attempt to mock me falls flat if you look at those numbers. A 5% increase in Romney's vote is very plausible, whereas a 20% increase for Obama would be entirely unprecedented.

Why? Barack Obama could turn into the new messiah over the course of the next six months and the entire Mormon clan could end up singing kumbaya in a circle with him. Again, anything is possible. Also, that poll is a year old, I am sure Utahans have warmed up to the new messiah since.
Thread creator, you respond to my maths with mockery. Maths>Mockery.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2012, 04:49:47 pm »
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Oh, by the way, even ignoring polling (which you yourself suggested doing in that thread based on the fact that Indiana wasn't considered a swing state early on), there's no logical reason that Romney would win or even come reasonably close in MA. None.
That's an assertion, not an argument. Back it up with some facts or figures.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2012, 04:50:24 pm »
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Romney 54-45
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oakvale
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2012, 04:51:01 pm »
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Oh, by the way, even ignoring polling (which you yourself suggested doing in that thread based on the fact that Indiana wasn't considered a swing state early on), there's no logical reason that Romney would win or even come reasonably close in MA. None.
That's an assertion, not an argument. Back it up with some facts or figures.

This is coming from a poster who's confidently predicting a second Great Depression within the next couple of months? Uhuh.

e: Serious question - do you think Obama can win Texas? He's "only" trailing by 7 there, after all. Roll Eyes
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2012, 04:59:38 pm »
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Oh, by the way, even ignoring polling (which you yourself suggested doing in that thread based on the fact that Indiana wasn't considered a swing state early on), there's no logical reason that Romney would win or even come reasonably close in MA. None.
That's an assertion, not an argument. Back it up with some facts or figures.

This is coming from a poster who's confidently predicting a second Great Depression within the next couple of months? Uhuh.
No, I've said either 2012 or 2013. I'll eat my own cock if it hasn't happened come the end of 2013.

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e: Serious question - do you think Obama can win Texas? He's "only" trailing by 7 there, after all. Roll Eyes
I can't see a plausible catalyst for that, it would have to be some out of the blue scandal. However, Texas is clearly trending Dem... either 2020 or 2024 will mark the tipping year, I'd say.

He could of probably won it in 2008 if the GFC had started at the end of 2007 rather then the end of 2008.
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oakvale
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« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2012, 05:01:10 pm »
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Oh, by the way, even ignoring polling (which you yourself suggested doing in that thread based on the fact that Indiana wasn't considered a swing state early on), there's no logical reason that Romney would win or even come reasonably close in MA. None.
That's an assertion, not an argument. Back it up with some facts or figures.

This is coming from a poster who's confidently predicting a second Great Depression within the next couple of months? Uhuh.
No, I've said either 2012 or 2013. I'll eat my own cock if it hasn't happened come the end of 2013.

Can we hold you to that?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2012, 05:04:18 pm »
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What a dumb question.

Of course he will.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2012, 05:04:35 pm »
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Oh, by the way, even ignoring polling (which you yourself suggested doing in that thread based on the fact that Indiana wasn't considered a swing state early on), there's no logical reason that Romney would win or even come reasonably close in MA. None.
That's an assertion, not an argument. Back it up with some facts or figures.

This is coming from a poster who's confidently predicting a second Great Depression within the next couple of months? Uhuh.
No, I've said either 2012 or 2013. I'll eat my own cock if it hasn't happened come the end of 2013.

Can we hold you to that?
Most certainly. Everything is alligned for it... the European situation, the Chinese bubble poised to burst, Middle Eastern instability, crazy teabaggers controlling the house of representatives, increasing social friction....
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Trueconservative
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« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2012, 05:17:34 pm »
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Obama will not win Utah. I'll bet my life and a million more lives on it.
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2012, 05:19:41 pm »
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If Obama converts to Mormonism he almost certainly will. Downside is he'll probably lose Massachusetts then.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2012, 05:22:46 pm »
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If Obama converts to Mormonism he almost certainly will. Downside is he'll probably lose Massachusetts then.
Off topic, but has their ever been a president(or head of state anywhere) that converted whilst holding power?
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« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2012, 05:32:06 pm »
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It depends. If the US economy suddenly starts creating two million jobs a month and Romney's involved in fifty different scandals, this is quite reasonable.

I will look forward to bumping this when Obama wins Utah.

Nah.  If that happens, Johnson or Roemer will take the state.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2012, 05:58:28 pm »
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Obama will not win Utah. I'll bet my life and a million more lives on it.

welcome to the Forum!
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« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2012, 06:25:46 pm »
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No. Rocky Anderson is from there, and Romney is a Mormon. Obama will come in third.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2012, 06:50:14 pm »
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What a dumb question.

Of course he will.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2012, 07:11:20 pm »
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He won't win Utah, that's the most Republican state in the Union. Those Mormons are riled up for Romney much like how African Americans are to Obama.
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