Will Barack Obama win Utah?

[Oakvale]

It depends. If the US economy suddenly starts creating two million jobs a month and Romney's involved in fifty different scandals, this is quite reasonable.

I will look forward to bumping this when Obama wins Utah.

[Oakvale]

The lead margin for Romney over Obama in Utah is 40%. Obama's lead margin in Massachusetts is only 10%.

Your attempt to mock me falls flat if you look at those numbers. A 5% increase in Romney's vote is very plausible, whereas a 20% increase for Obama would be entirely unprecedented.

Obama won Massachussets by 25 points. Ignore Scott Rasmussen's trolling and YouGov, which is a really terrible poster (don't they do online polls? lol).

Romney will probably do a little better than McCain. He might lose by 20 or 18 or whatever instead of 25. That would be about a five point increase, sure.

[Oakvale]

Oh, by the way, even ignoring polling (which you yourself suggested doing in that thread based on the fact that Indiana wasn't considered a swing state early on), there's no logical reason that Romney would win or even come reasonably close in MA. None.

[Oakvale]

Oh, by the way, even ignoring polling (which you yourself suggested doing in that thread based on the fact that Indiana wasn't considered a swing state early on), there's no logical reason that Romney would win or even come reasonably close in MA. None.

That's an assertion, not an argument. Back it up with some facts or figures.

This is coming from a poster who's confidently predicting a second Great Depression within the next couple of months? Uhuh.

e: Serious question - do you think Obama can win Texas? He's "only" trailing by 7 there, after all.

[Oakvale]

Oh, by the way, even ignoring polling (which you yourself suggested doing in that thread based on the fact that Indiana wasn't considered a swing state early on), there's no logical reason that Romney would win or even come reasonably close in MA. None.

That's an assertion, not an argument. Back it up with some facts or figures.

This is coming from a poster who's confidently predicting a second Great Depression within the next couple of months? Uhuh.

No, I've said either 2012 or 2013. I'll eat my own cock if it hasn't happened come the end of 2013.

Can we hold you to that?

[Oakvale]

However, Texas is clearly trending Dem... either 2020 or 2024 will mark the tipping year, I'd say.

I'm from Texas.  When I read this, I thought you were an idiot.  Then I saw you're Australian. 

He's also about 15, but it's generally fairly accepted that Texas is slowly but surely trending Democratic due to demographic shifts.