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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  VA-PPP: Mark Warner (D) would be unbeatable next year if he runs for Governor
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Author Topic: VA-PPP: Mark Warner (D) would be unbeatable next year if he runs for Governor  (Read 636 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 03, 2012, 12:32:23 pm »
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If Mark Warner wants to be the next Governor of Virginia...he's probably going to be the next Governor of Virginia.  PPP's newest poll finds him blowing away the Republican field of candidates with a 53-33 lead over Ken Cuccinelli, a 53-32 advantage over Bill Bolling, and a 58-19 edge over Tareq Salahi.

Warner continues to be the state's most popular politician with a 52% approval rating to only 26% of voters who disapprove of him. He takes 13-29% of the Republican vote in these three match ups while losing only 2-4% of the Democratic vote, and he has a persistent double digit lead with independents as well. At this point the office looks to be Warner's for the taking.

Cuccinelli continues to be the overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination next year. He's polling at 51% to 23% for Bolling and 4% for Salahi with 22% of voters undecided. Cuccinelli has a huge name recognition advantage over the other two with 76% of voters familiar with him compared to only 46% for Salahi and 44% for Bolling. His appeal to the far right wing of the GOP will make him difficult to defeat in a primary. Among 'very conservative' voters he's at 64% to 20% for Bolling.

Cuccinelli's nomination could be bad news for Republicans in the general election though. Bolling leads both Terry McAuliffe (36-34) and Tom Perriello (35-34) by narrow margins in head to head match ups. Cuccinelli meanwhile trails each of the Democrats, McAuliffe by a 41-36 spread and Perriello 39-36.Cuccinelli is not real popular beyond the Republican base with only 30% of voters seeing him positively to 37% with a negative opinion.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/early-look-at-2013-va-gov-race.html#more
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2012, 12:47:36 pm »
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that would be a stupid idea. It isn't a redistricting year and also, the democrats need him to keep the senate seat.
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Kevin
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2012, 12:54:14 pm »
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Warner was a more effective governor then he is currently a Senator. But I echo the comments of Dr. Scholl, not many statewide Democrats want him to run given how it could complicate things with his Senate seat.
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2012, 08:18:31 pm »
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The odds of Warner running for Governor are pretty low, no?
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GM Napoleon
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2012, 08:47:49 pm »
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I know VPs aren't picked for reasons like this, but a benefit of a McDonnell pick would not only be crucial assistance in the decisive state of the 2012 election. Elevating the more electable Bolling to the position gives him an incumbency advantage that can help counter Cuccinelli's strength with the extremist base in a Republican gubernatorial primary. Relying on recent history would mean a Democratic win here following a Romney victory. The pattern could reverse itself, though. Warner will not run, I can guarantee you that.
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2012, 08:51:08 pm »
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It's kind of pathetic the Lt. Governor has a recognition of less than half.  I'll admit I didn't recognize Salahi.

I hadn't heard anyone put forward the idea of Warner as a candidate before this.
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2012, 09:48:23 pm »
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Warner's not running.  He'll probably hold the Senate seat for as long as he wants, since it looks highly unlikely he'll ever be President Cry
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