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| | | |-+  State(s) Obama has the best chance to pick up this cycle
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Question: Which of these 2008 red states is most likely to turn blue in 2012
South Carolina
Georgia
Missouri
Texas
North Dakota
Arizona
Montana
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Author Topic: State(s) Obama has the best chance to pick up this cycle  (Read 885 times)
Indy Prez
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« on: May 05, 2012, 10:17:36 am »
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Bearing in mind Mittens is the Rominee and Gary Johnson'll be running on the LP ticket.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2012, 10:39:26 am »
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Missouri, given that he lost it by so little.
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2012, 10:40:32 am »
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AZ
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2012, 05:36:06 pm »
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Missouri is the only reasonable state to pick up. Every one else is laughable unless Romney gaffes or something bad about him surfaces.
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2012, 05:43:03 am »
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I think Obama's gonna be doin better on the Atlantic-coastal Deep South (Georgia or SC). Romney's done disastrously up against some pretty weak candidates down there in the primaries, while Obama's probably won some of those them over with the killing of Bin Laden. Blacks are going to be backing there guy more than ever for a second term while Johnson should win over Romney-targeted suburbanite transpalnts from up North.
 As fr the West, every Mormon and his wives will be driving to the polls to back there guy, while poor Hispanics will probably flock to the candidate who doesn't want to build the wall -Gary or Barry. Unless Mitt picks Brian Sandoval or Susana Martinez for Veep to take the Mexican middle class conservative vote, though Colorado withstood the Tea Party onslaught in 2010. But Johnson should keep everything safe for the Dems should that not be the case.
 It's likely Barry won't be wasting re-election money on Missouri since it's full of groups who despise or are indifferent to him and Montana Schweitzer-Democrats won't be coming out to vote for the guy who refused the pipeline. That said, a bolstered environmental base out West could flock to the polls and put some red (dave leip old skool) on the map if Gary  takes enough of the Cowboy vote away from Mitt. So yes - AZ, MT, ND and TX could all be up for grabs.
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2012, 09:11:45 am »
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AZ
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2012, 10:49:37 pm »
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Barring a second 9/11 in October, you're smoking something mighty foul if you think he has a chance at any of these
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2012, 10:17:57 am »
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Barring a second 9/11 in October, you're smoking something mighty foul if you think he has a chance at any of these
Polling in AZ and MO is currently pretty close...
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2012, 10:58:38 pm »
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Barring a second 9/11 in October, you're smoking something mighty foul if you think he has a chance at any of these
Polling in AZ and MO is currently pretty close...

Polls aren't worth a steaming pile of dogsh-t.  Traditionally, undecideds trend away from the incumbent, and the latest poll I saw had Undecideds at around 5% in MO and AZ.  Just remember that in 1980 polling was close the week before election day, but over the weekend all undecideds broke for Reagan.
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

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FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
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butafly [豚フライ]
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2012, 04:23:48 am »
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Barring a second 9/11 in October, you're smoking something mighty foul if you think he has a chance at any of these
Polling in AZ and MO is currently pretty close...

Polls aren't worth a steaming pile of dogsh-t.  Traditionally, undecideds trend away from the incumbent, and the latest poll I saw had Undecideds at around 5% in MO and AZ.  Just remember that in 1980 polling was close the week before election day, but over the weekend all undecideds broke for Reagan.
This isn't 1980, no matter how much conservatives might want to believe that.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2012, 08:47:05 am »
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MO, obviously.
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Indy Prez
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2012, 02:00:14 pm »
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Barring a second 9/11 in October, you're smoking something mighty foul if you think he has a chance at any of these
Polling in AZ and MO is currently pretty close...

Polls aren't worth a steaming pile of dogsh-t.  Traditionally, undecideds trend away from the incumbent, and the latest poll I saw had Undecideds at around 5% in MO and AZ.  Just remember that in 1980 polling was close the week before election day, but over the weekend all undecideds broke for Reagan.

What about Iowa and new mexico in 2004? Arizona and Florida in 1996?
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2012, 11:01:19 pm »
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Barring a second 9/11 in October, you're smoking something mighty foul if you think he has a chance at any of these
Polling in AZ and MO is currently pretty close...

Polls aren't worth a steaming pile of dogsh-t.  Traditionally, undecideds trend away from the incumbent, and the latest poll I saw had Undecideds at around 5% in MO and AZ.  Just remember that in 1980 polling was close the week before election day, but over the weekend all undecideds broke for Reagan.

What about Iowa and new mexico in 2004? Arizona and Florida in 1996?

I don't think Obama is looking as good right now as Slick Willy was in 96.  No matter how much Dems like to believe it, there is no way he's gonna win as many popular or electoral votes as he did last year.  Now with that gay marriage stunt he pulled (okay, after 4 years in office you decide your positions.  Really big change we got here from previous presidents) MO, VA, NC, Iowa, and his shots at FL are gone.  PA is also more conservative than people would think, and I believe most people believe in states rights regarding marriage.  Period.  He can still win, but by the skin of his balls.  And he needs OH.  If he loses MI too, he's dead.  The only way he wins is by 2000-esque margins.
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
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