Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 31, 2014, 10:38:58 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Which one of these three states does Obama have the best chance to pick-up?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Best pick-up oppurtunity?
Arizona   -34 (65.4%)
Georgia   -8 (15.4%)
Missouri   -10 (19.2%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 52

Author Topic: Which one of these three states does Obama have the best chance to pick-up?  (Read 508 times)
Chris B
cb48026
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 667


View Profile
« on: May 05, 2012, 03:51:23 pm »
Ignore

I'm going to say AZ since Romney is doing so poorly with Hispanics. Though MO seems possible if Romney can't excite white working class voters.
Logged
A.G. Snowstalker
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16987
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -8.06, S: -4.96

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2012, 03:59:31 pm »
Ignore

Romney will get ~30% of the Hispanic vote overall, and I believe AZ Hispanics are slightly more Republican than, say, California Hispanics. Also, Romney has Mormons and affluent suburbia.

MO, on the other hand, was razor-thin for McCain in 2008, and while the Scots-Irish veteran could appeal to the heartland, Romney won't be as effective.
Logged

Thank You, Jon Lester
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21795
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.55, S: -7.91

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2012, 04:09:35 pm »
Ignore

Arizona.
Logged

BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1078
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2012, 04:36:37 pm »
Ignore

I believe AZ Hispanics are slightly more Republican than, say, California Hispanics.

Not much anymore since the AZ immigration law a few years ago. Plus AZ Hispanics and CA Hispanics are mainly of the same stock, so they won't too much different.
Logged

"Weezy F Baby and the F is for Phenomenal" - Lil' Wayne

"Look at this photograph/Every time I do it makes me laugh/How did our eyes get so red?/And what the hell is on Joey's head?" - Nickelback
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3643
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2012, 04:44:42 pm »
Ignore

Missouri is slighly more likely than Arizona. Georgia wont be competitive till 2016.
Logged

Every time I see Denmark I just want to punch it in the face...
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9887
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2012, 10:48:03 pm »
Ignore

Arizona went R in 2008  because of a Favorite Son -- by less than the usual difference that a Favorite Son offers. The Hispanic vote must be extremely alienated with statewide Republicans... even more than in 2008.

A bare win by President Obama of this state is 'progress while standing still'.
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1730


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2012, 11:14:07 pm »
Ignore

If Obama doesn't win Georgia in 2012, it probably won't have a shot at going Dem until 2020.

If Obama wins in 2012, then a Republican will most likely win next cycle, and even by then he/she will take Georgia with them. It 2020 shapes up to be a competitive election, then Georgia's demographics will have had sufficient time to catch up with its voting behavior and it will vote along the lines of the nation as a whole.

Totally weird thinking about the year 2020. We might all be dead by then, if the Mayans were right after all.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
BlueSwan
blueswan
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 459
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2012, 02:49:00 am »
Ignore

Georgia isn't there yet.

While Missouri was much closer than Arizona in 2008, I believe that MO is trending Rep and AZ is trending dem, which to me makes it slightly more likely that he pics up AZ.

All three are very long shots though.
Logged
Zagg
Martin
Newbie
*
Posts: 12
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2012, 08:06:02 pm »
Ignore

The best chance? Arizona. Will he carry any of them? No.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines