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Author Topic: Romney begins courting Hispanic voters in key battlegrounds  (Read 1355 times)
Snowstalker
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« on: May 05, 2012, 04:43:45 pm »
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http://www.theonion.com/video/romney-courts-hispanic-vote-with-animated-sombrero,28044/
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2012, 04:44:59 pm »
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I loled
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2012, 05:14:33 pm »
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I could see this happening for real.
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Sbane
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2012, 08:13:09 pm »
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LOL.

But on a serious note he does have to start courting Hispanic voters and in general trying to make immigrants and their descendents feel comfortable with him. If I was him, I would have him mention how much he loves legal immigration whenever he has the opportunity, and even when he doesn't. This will help him with both Hispanics and Asians who may not be enamored with Obama but don't look at the Republicans as a serious opposition.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2012, 08:19:07 pm »
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LOL.

But on a serious note he does have to start courting Hispanic voters and in general trying to make immigrants and their descendents feel comfortable with him. If I was him, I would have him mention how much he loves legal immigration whenever he has the opportunity, and even when he doesn't. This will help him with both Hispanics and Asians who may not be enamored with Obama but don't look at the Republicans as a serious opposition.

The odd thing, is that Hispanics really don't matter this election with the possible exception of AZ, or if it is really tight, where they are a small percentage, but where near every vote counts. In other words, I think NV and Colorado will be more Dem than the nation this time, and those states will not be the pivot point even if Mittens manages to get another 5%-7% or so of the Hispanic vote by working it assiduously and with skill, than is a reasonable expectation now.
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2012, 08:32:55 pm »
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The odd thing, is that Hispanics really don't matter this election with the possible exception of AZ, or if it is really tight, where they are a small percentage, but where near every vote counts. In other words, I think NV and Colorado will be more Dem than the nation this time, and those states will not be the pivot point even if Mittens manages to get another 5%-7% or so of the Hispanic vote by working it assiduously and with skill, than is a reasonable expectation now.

In other words, Hispanics don't matter because they do matter; their minds are so made up that the only instance in which they now can make a difference is in a state that has been viewed until now as a solid Republican stronghold.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2012, 09:09:34 pm »
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The odd thing, is that Hispanics really don't matter this election with the possible exception of AZ, or if it is really tight, where they are a small percentage, but where near every vote counts. In other words, I think NV and Colorado will be more Dem than the nation this time, and those states will not be the pivot point even if Mittens manages to get another 5%-7% or so of the Hispanic vote by working it assiduously and with skill, than is a reasonable expectation now.

In other words, Hispanics don't matter because they do matter; their minds are so made up that the only instance in which they now can make a difference is in a state that has been viewed until now as a solid Republican stronghold.

No, not exactly. It is just that the math happens this time to get Mittens to 270 without many of the Hispanics on board. AZ probably will not flip if Mittens gets but say 25% of the Hispanic vote in AZ (he probably will get 30% because an unusually high percentage of AZ Hispanics are Evangelical Protestant, and thus more conservative in voting habits than average), but yes, that makes the state more in play than normal, but the odds are very high that AZ will not be the pivot point, and the current polls reflect that. AZ still has a GOP lean vis a vis the nation.

But yes, Hispanics do make a difference in NV, and CO, it is just that the GOP is in such a mess in both states, that 1) it is not at all clear that if Mittens gets to GOP normal with Hispanics that it would tilt either state to him, and 2) he really does not need either state in any event - assuming he wins New Hampshire. Mittens also has a real shot at Iowa in a tight race as a backup to NH going "wrong."

Both parties know Virginia is the pivot point, and Politico had an article about it, and the vast sums both campaigns will be pouring into it for infrastructure, prolific state specific ads, and so forth. That state is ground zero. VA's economy is about to get a boost from this campaign.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 09:19:34 pm by Torie »Logged

R2D2
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2012, 09:18:06 pm »
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I loled
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2012, 09:55:45 pm »
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LOL.

But on a serious note he does have to start courting Hispanic voters and in general trying to make immigrants and their descendents feel comfortable with him. If I was him, I would have him mention how much he loves legal immigration whenever he has the opportunity, and even when he doesn't. This will help him with both Hispanics and Asians who may not be enamored with Obama but don't look at the Republicans as a serious opposition.

The odd thing, is that Hispanics really don't matter this election with the possible exception of AZ, or if it is really tight, where they are a small percentage, but where near every vote counts. In other words, I think NV and Colorado will be more Dem than the nation this time, and those states will not be the pivot point even if Mittens manages to get another 5%-7% or so of the Hispanic vote by working it assiduously and with skill, than is a reasonable expectation now.

I got one word for you, Virginia. Also the Asian vote is substantial there. You know, some of these Republicans think they are being cute and want to win an election or two with some racist/xenophobic appeals but it will bite them in the ass soon enough. And if they think it only hurts them with Hispanics, they must be dreaming. It hurts them with Asians as well. So they are alienating the two fastest groups in America along with single women who are growing as well. Planning for the future huh? Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2012, 10:04:10 pm »
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Yes, the future for the GOP looks grim, unless and until they find a new formula. That is beyond per adventure true. They need to keep some inspiration from David Cameron. There is no other way out. But it will probably down the line require a couple of disastrous Pub defeats to get there. But you do know Sbane, that politicians don't think about the long term right?  The short term is stressful enough for careerists in this field to even begin to think of the long term. And therein lies a problem - maybe the problem, and that obtains for both parties when it comes to the best interests of this nation - long term. It is far more about them than us.
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2012, 10:18:01 pm »
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Oh sure. In AZ the Republicans had a huge budget deficit, and couldn't blame the Democrats so they blamed the Mexicans. And they won re-election. Of course there's a good chance AZ will become a lean D state by the end of the decade. I disagree that Hispanics aren't already having an impact on this election ignoring Virginia. Hispanics have consistently not given Obama an approval rating much over 50-55%. Yet they will likely vote more than 65% for him. A differential is always expected since some of the disapproval comes from lefties and some from those who have a problem with the Republican candidate for whatever reason, but not to that degree. I think that might be enough to impact the result in CO, where the white population is the type Mitt will do much better with. So a toss up becomes a lean D state.
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2012, 10:29:43 pm »
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Oh sure. In AZ the Republicans had a huge budget deficit, and couldn't blame the Democrats so they blamed the Mexicans. And they won re-election. Of course there's a good chance AZ will become a lean D state by the end of the decade. I disagree that Hispanics aren't already having an impact on this election ignoring Virginia. Hispanics have consistently not given Obama an approval rating much over 50-55%. Yet they will likely vote more than 65% for him. A differential is always expected since some of the disapproval comes from lefties and some from those who have a problem with the Republican candidate for whatever reason, but not to that degree. I think that might be enough to impact the result in CO, where the white population is the type Mitt will do much better with. So a toss up becomes a lean D state.

Even Bush 2004 got no more than 40% of the Hispanic vote, and probably 38% or so. So if Mittens gets 35%, I suspect he will be deliriously happy. More likely is around 28% or so overall as a wild guess. If he is skilled, he might get it up to 32% or something. You need to check out those CO polls by the way. Mittens has more than an Hispanic problem in CO, but that is what breaks the camel's back.

Your AZ characterization is tendentious, but no need to get deflected by that. Another time. Smiley
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Sbane
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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2012, 02:34:35 am »
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Yup, he has a problem in CO beyond Hispanics which is why he would lose right now.

And my comments on AZ are tendentitious? So you don't think that was a great tactic to make sure the voters forgot all about the budget deficit? You think they wanted the police to check the papeles of every brown and possibly unamerican person out of the goodness of their heart? Or just their racist beliefs? Hey, I was trying to give them some credit. Smiley
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opebo
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« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2012, 09:09:12 am »
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The odd thing, is that Hispanics really don't matter this election with the possible exception of AZ, or if it is really tight, where they are a small percentage, but where near every vote counts. In other words, I think NV and Colorado will be more Dem than the nation this time, and those states will not be the pivot point...

But isn't Obama's secure hold on CO and NV the key reason that Romney's chances are so minute, essentially making a win. in OH, NH and VA - he's down to at best a one state margin of victory (and that an unlikely one), partially because of the Hispanics taking several previous Republican possibilities off the table.  Not the only factor, but I wouldn't say 'Hispanics don't really matter this election'.
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Torie
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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2012, 10:05:29 am »
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The odd thing, is that Hispanics really don't matter this election with the possible exception of AZ, or if it is really tight, where they are a small percentage, but where near every vote counts. In other words, I think NV and Colorado will be more Dem than the nation this time, and those states will not be the pivot point...

But isn't Obama's secure hold on CO and NV the key reason that Romney's chances are so minute, essentially making a win. in OH, NH and VA - he's down to at best a one state margin of victory (and that an unlikely one), partially because of the Hispanics taking several previous Republican possibilities off the table.  Not the only factor, but I wouldn't say 'Hispanics don't really matter this election'.

All the states with the exception of NH that Mittens needs were more GOP in 2008 than either NV or CO. VA had a slight GOP PVI in 2008, and the next state with a slight Dem PVI was CO, and then the next state is NH. It is only Mittens' relative strength in NH which "saves" him from Hispanic wrath, or in lieu of NH, potentially Iowa.
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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2012, 12:46:37 pm »
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Yup, he has a problem in CO beyond Hispanics which is why he would lose right now.

And my comments on AZ are tendentitious? So you don't think that was a great tactic to make sure the voters forgot all about the budget deficit? You think they wanted the police to check the papeles of every brown and possibly unamerican person out of the goodness of their heart? Or just their racist beliefs? Hey, I was trying to give them some credit. Smiley

No, there was a lot of publicity about chaos on the AZ border, and anger at the Obama administration for not doing more to make it permeable. I don't know the details of the budget deficit, but I doubt it was due to Pub profligacy. The AZ law by the way prohibited profiling is my recollection. 
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2012, 04:42:58 pm »
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No, not exactly. It is just that the math happens this time to get Mittens to 270 without many of the Hispanics on board. AZ probably will not flip if Mittens gets but say 25% of the Hispanic vote in AZ (he probably will get 30% because an unusually high percentage of AZ Hispanics are Evangelical Protestant, and thus more conservative in voting habits than average), but yes, that makes the state more in play than normal, but the odds are very high that AZ will not be the pivot point, and the current polls reflect that. AZ still has a GOP lean vis a vis the nation. 
Most Hispanics are not Evangelical Protestant in AZ, they're no different from CA Hispanics, they're of the same stock. They're not going to vote any different much from each other.
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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2012, 06:04:49 pm »
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No, not exactly. It is just that the math happens this time to get Mittens to 270 without many of the Hispanics on board. AZ probably will not flip if Mittens gets but say 25% of the Hispanic vote in AZ (he probably will get 30% because an unusually high percentage of AZ Hispanics are Evangelical Protestant, and thus more conservative in voting habits than average), but yes, that makes the state more in play than normal, but the odds are very high that AZ will not be the pivot point, and the current polls reflect that. AZ still has a GOP lean vis a vis the nation. 
Most Hispanics are not Evangelical Protestant in AZ, they're no different from CA Hispanics, they're of the same stock. They're not going to vote any different much from each other.

Well in 2008 the exit polls (I just looked them up) had the Hispanic split at 56-41 in AZ, and 74-23 in CA for Obama, and while 5 points of that may by the homeboy factor in AZ, the rest really isn't.

Welcome to the forum by the way. I hope you are enjoying it.
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« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2012, 06:11:38 pm »
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Yup, he has a problem in CO beyond Hispanics which is why he would lose right now.

And my comments on AZ are tendentitious? So you don't think that was a great tactic to make sure the voters forgot all about the budget deficit? You think they wanted the police to check the papeles of every brown and possibly unamerican person out of the goodness of their heart? Or just their racist beliefs? Hey, I was trying to give them some credit. Smiley

No, there was a lot of publicity about chaos on the AZ border, and anger at the Obama administration for not doing more to make it permeable. I don't know the details of the budget deficit, but I doubt it was due to Pub profligacy. The AZ law by the way prohibited profiling is my recollection.  

The budget deficit was due to the housing bubble of course. As for spending, pubbies love the cops and prison unions while the democrats love the teachers and firefighters. You remember Whitman's deals, don't you? Of course Republicans are never willing to raise taxes, which is sometimes necessary especially when you have to balance your budget every year. Ideally you would raise taxes during the good years to build up a surplus for the bad ones.

Also while I am sure the law did prohibit profiling, what mechanisms were in place to ensure it did not occur? If the cops automatically checked your immigration status if you were some sort of Brown or Asian (perhaps even Blacks, gotta get those Haitians!) how could you prevent that? They could make up any reason they wanted and it was your word against them, and you know how that goes usually. So legal residents and citizens would get harassed due to no fault of their own. And if you were a brown from Washington, Utah or New Mexico, and you made the mistake of going to Arizona with just your driver's license, you might end up in Mexico! Also a brown who went for a walk without his wallet...yup Mexico for him as well. Protect the goddamn border, ensure workers are legal before they get a job and don't harass everyday citizens! Not really a hard concept. And don't be surprised if those who would get harassed won't like it too much, regardless of whether they are protestants or catholics. AZ Hispanics will start voting like the ones in CA. And it's the Republicans fault completely.
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« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2012, 07:17:08 pm »
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I say good luck Mitt already alienated Hispanics with this extreme right view of all illegal hispanics self-deporting. If he could have had the same postion as Gingrich does on some kind of immigration reform that would help Mitt out a little bit with the hispanic vote.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2012, 08:15:42 pm »
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No, not exactly. It is just that the math happens this time to get Mittens to 270 without many of the Hispanics on board. AZ probably will not flip if Mittens gets but say 25% of the Hispanic vote in AZ (he probably will get 30% because an unusually high percentage of AZ Hispanics are Evangelical Protestant, and thus more conservative in voting habits than average), but yes, that makes the state more in play than normal, but the odds are very high that AZ will not be the pivot point, and the current polls reflect that. AZ still has a GOP lean vis a vis the nation. 
Most Hispanics are not Evangelical Protestant in AZ, they're no different from CA Hispanics, they're of the same stock. They're not going to vote any different much from each other.

Well in 2008 the exit polls (I just looked them up) had the Hispanic split at 56-41 in AZ, and 74-23 in CA for Obama, and while 5 points of that may by the homeboy factor in AZ, the rest really isn't.

Welcome to the forum by the way. I hope you are enjoying it.

Hey thanks, but sadly I'm not enjoying it too much, I should be studying for finals right now.

But I have to a lot of that has to do with the favorite son factor, NOT 5 point of it, plus a lot of Hispanics did not react well the AZ immigration law, so a lot of them would feel even more extremely alienated by the GOP a lot more regardless.

I think I've read that only 25% of AZ Hispanics are Evangelical, that's not really much,
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #21 on: May 06, 2012, 08:16:12 pm »
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No, not exactly. It is just that the math happens this time to get Mittens to 270 without many of the Hispanics on board. AZ probably will not flip if Mittens gets but say 25% of the Hispanic vote in AZ (he probably will get 30% because an unusually high percentage of AZ Hispanics are Evangelical Protestant, and thus more conservative in voting habits than average), but yes, that makes the state more in play than normal, but the odds are very high that AZ will not be the pivot point, and the current polls reflect that. AZ still has a GOP lean vis a vis the nation. 
Most Hispanics are not Evangelical Protestant in AZ, they're no different from CA Hispanics, they're of the same stock. They're not going to vote any different much from each other.

Well in 2008 the exit polls (I just looked them up) had the Hispanic split at 56-41 in AZ, and 74-23 in CA for Obama, and while 5 points of that may by the homeboy factor in AZ, the rest really isn't.

Welcome to the forum by the way. I hope you are enjoying it.

Hey thanks, but sadly I'm not enjoying it too much, I should be studying for finals right now.

But I have to a lot of that has to do with the favorite son factor, NOT 5 point of it, plus a lot of Hispanics did not react well the AZ immigration law, so a lot of them would feel even more extremely alienated by the GOP a lot more regardless.

I think I've read that only 25% of AZ Hispanics are Evangelical, that's not really much, perhaps on average with the rest of the country.
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« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2012, 11:24:15 pm »
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The funny thing is, self-deportation is pretty harmless and logical. You've got to be verified to work in the United States. You can't be verified. You can't work, you go home. How is that such a terrible thing for Hispanics? Moreover, getting rid of their illegal pals would probably free up some jobs for legal immigrant Hispanics.
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« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2012, 12:26:03 am »
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The funny thing is, self-deportation is pretty harmless and logical. You've got to be verified to work in the United States. You can't be verified. You can't work, you go home. How is that such a terrible thing for Hispanics? Moreover, getting rid of their illegal pals would probably free up some jobs for legal immigrant Hispanics.

Whelp, statements like these are why Latinos are not going to every come over to the Republican side (at least in the near future, I honestly feel like many Latinos would otherwise vote Republican).

By the way isn't there a huge Salvadoran population in Virginia?
*Answer: Currently at about 8%. However that represents a 92% increase in just 10 years.
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« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2012, 12:43:00 am »
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Increased border patrols with more air surveillance and strategic fencing, E-verify and amnesty for those who have been living here lawfully (don't even give me the bullsh**t about how they already broke the law). Boom, Immigration issue solved. Someone give me a medal.
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