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| | |-+  Could Ron Paul actually win the GOP nomination?
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Author Topic: Could Ron Paul actually win the GOP nomination?  (Read 2426 times)
Beet
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« on: May 06, 2012, 12:23:36 am »
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I have been looking at Erc's delegate list, and there are a number of delegate projections on there that almost certainly will be changed. Just to take an example, the very first entry on the list, gives Romney 10 delegates, Santorum 11, and Paul 6, with the rest uncommitted. But it's very likely that Paul will dominate the state convention. Combine that with his control of the state party, and I don't see why he can't come out with every single delegate from Iowa. If he does, it nets +28 delegates from Iowa.

Now look at Massachusetts-- a primary state that went 76% for Romney and less than 10% for Paul, with 41 total delegates. The Paul people look to have taken at least 16 or 17. Now, 16 or 17 out of 41 doesn't sound overwhelming, but consider that if true, that leaves Romney with (at best) 24 or 25 delegates. Let's say he has 25 delegates, and Paul 16. His "net" from Massachusetts is only +9.

Now look at Ohio. Romney got 38 delegates, Santorum 21 and uncommitted 7. Let's say all the uncommitted go to Romney, for 45. However, is the Santorum delegates don't get behind him, he nets only +24 delegates from the state. If the uncommitted go against him, he nets only +10 delegates from the state. So all of a sudden, Iowa alone cancels out both Massachusetts and Ohio. And so on and so on.

You see, what matters is not how big of a state Romney won, but what the margin was in delegates. Paul can win by racking up overwhelming margins in smaller, caucus states. It is a similar strategy to the one Barack Obama used against Hillary Clinton in 2008. For example, Obama netted 12 delegates out of Idaho by winning the state by 13,000 votes, more than the 11 delegates Clinton netted by winning New Jersey by 113,000 votes. Only Paul's strategy is even more extreme. He loses the caucuses yet still gets an overwhelming delegate margin.

Based on Erc's list, if you reallocate the delegates of the states where the Paul forces could dominate (Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, Washington, Alaska) and combine these with delegates for candidates that dropped out, the anti-Romney forces already have 710 delegates. To reach this total I used a conservative conclusion that does not assign Paul any delegates in some states (such as Georgia and Florida) where we know shenanigans are going on. I also allocated Romney all the delegates in some caucus states like Idaho, and gave him his fair share in North Dakota. This also excludes Missouri altogether. If you remove these assumptions, the anti-Romney slate has more delegates currently than the Romney slate.

The real question is whether a large number of pledged delegates in big primary states such as Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio, are bound to Romney but secretly support Paul. Were these delegates to abstain, causing Romney to fail to reach 1,144 delegates on the first ballot, then on the second ballot, they would be free to vote for Paul. This could produce a Paul majority on the floor. Such an event would be the most dramatic convention in decades, and certain the first dramatic convention to be on live television.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 12:25:13 am by Beet »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2012, 12:33:54 am »
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Could he?  Yes.  But the chances are much smaller than what the RP people are saying.
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2012, 12:35:07 am »
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A) No.

B) If he magically did it would create the biggest sh*tstorm since, what, Chicago 1968? The fallout would be hilarious!
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2012, 12:37:20 am »

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/05/question-time-how-much-leverage-does.html
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2012, 12:38:58 am »
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Hilarious, but not happening.
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« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2012, 12:44:56 am »
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Yeah, a shorter version of that post is.. "the question is...unanswerable... Rule 37 allows them to keep going 'round and 'round passing, and my personal reading, the second round of passing doesn't technically constitute a second ballot... undoubtedly the RNC and Romney folks have failsafes."
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« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2012, 09:00:16 am »
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No.
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2012, 09:11:58 am »
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Nominally possible, but it would require that Romney drop the ball in the next couple of conventions/primaries/caucauses and that Paul's organization is just as strong in all of the other states as it is in the small caucus states (Minnesota, Iowa, etc)

It also requires that Paul supporters go for the "ninja delegate" strategy by abstaining or by simply breaking the rules and being removed to be replaced by an also pro-Paul delegate (eg. Romney wins every California district, but twenty Paul delegates are snuck in, take a delegate and a substitute slot, and vote Paul anyway, removing the total number of delegates and lowering Romney's total if not by as much had they simply abstained, something the Romney campaign probably has a failsafe against). I haven't heard of this occurring on a large scale (barring small time instances eg. "I campaigned as a pro-life conservative and ended up as a Gingrich delegate not that I'm complaining"), so we won't know how that goes until nomination day.

Also, in the (incredibly unlikely) event that Paul steals the nomination this way, the "mainstream" Republicans would probably flip out, the right wing media like FOX would go into a rage, and the party would tear itself apart as the national organization (run by Romney supporting types) split with the state organizations (which Paul has basically taken control of in several areas) and made things messy. There'd probably be at least one anti-Paul Republican running independent or third party, and Obama would be laughing his ass off at the impending easy victory (though in the long term, it would open up a lot of formerly safe Democratic demographics to Republican/Paul Republican competition).

The far more important fallout from this is that Paul backers are seizing every piece of the Republican party apparatus to strengthen him in the short term, and that could have huge impacts on the future statewide elections later, not to mention the presidential election (assuming a Romney victory). For example, I know for a fact that the state parties of Iowa, Minnesota and Alaska are basically Ron Paul parties, and most Ron Paul supporters absolutely detest Romney even if Paul himself doesn't. Romney will have a hard time fighting Obama if half of the state parties want him to lose. That isn't even mentioning the fact that in some states, the state parties elect the Electors, meaning a pile of Romney Electors could simply end up defecting to Johnson at the last minute. Were I a betting man, I'd go invest a pile of money in Obama winning the upcoming election (a bet I'd lose if Obama's economic delaying measures crumble too early).
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2012, 09:21:19 am »
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Not really, but that's not their goal... it's to make the point and ensure their maximum voice.

It's laying the groundwork for an adorable civil war within the GOP Cheesy
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2012, 10:16:57 am »
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Could he?  Yes.  But the chances are much smaller than what the RP people are saying.

If there's any chance he could, then his chances cannot be much smaller than what the RP people are saying.

(For the record, he has no chance, if only for the reason as I've said already that even if a large number of the delegates are ninjas, they'd just declare Romney nominated by acclamation and cut the audio from the floor).
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2012, 11:19:43 am »
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Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2012, 11:22:30 am »
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Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.

Of course, has been from the outset the main goal of Paul's presidential campaign. The worst the Paul people could do is bring the convention to a screeching halt Chicago '68-style. There's not a chance in the world that the powers that be within the Republican party, not to mention the vast majority of the Republican base, would EVER let Paul be nominated, and certainly not in such an underhanded and undemocratic way.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 12:26:03 pm by Stranger in a strange land »Logged

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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2012, 11:25:52 am »
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No, he is too fringe.
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« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2012, 12:41:13 pm »
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No way.
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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2012, 12:43:54 pm »
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Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2012, 01:07:05 pm »
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Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.

Longer answer: No, but he can seize control of a good chunk of the state parties and a portion of the national one, decide the policy planks, use the GOP's procedures against it to slow up the convention and mess up the scripting, select the convention chair, declare Vice President Paul, and in short do this, except in prime time for all the TV cameras to the Rominee itself.
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2012, 01:12:46 pm »
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Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.

Longer answer: No, but he can seize control of a good chunk of the state parties and a portion of the national one, decide the policy planks, use the GOP's procedures against it to slow up the convention and mess up the scripting, select the convention chair, declare Vice President Paul, and in short do this, except in prime time for all the TV cameras to the Rominee itself.
Rominee Tongue I like that.
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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2012, 01:23:12 pm »
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Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.

Longer answer: No, but he can seize control of a good chunk of the state parties and a portion of the national one, decide the policy planks, use the GOP's procedures against it to slow up the convention and mess up the scripting, select the convention chair, declare Vice President Paul, and in short do this, except in prime time for all the TV cameras to the Rominee itself.
Rominee Tongue I like that.

I really do need to get myself over to Tampa sometime, but high school starts like three days before the convention starts...

Current mathy-type stuff: Paul's taken a good chunk of Nevada, Minnesota, Louisiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Washington, North Dakota, Maine, Colorado, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Alaska delegates (even if they're bound to someone else) and is taking aim at a variety of others. This isn't enough to deny a first-ballot nomination yet. It is enough, however, to get some very loud heckling.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 01:47:20 pm by IDS Legislator SJoyceFla »Logged

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« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2012, 01:33:17 pm »
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We can only hope so.
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« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2012, 01:36:18 pm »
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Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.

Longer answer: No, but he can seize control of a good chunk of the state parties and a portion of the national one, decide the policy planks, use the GOP's procedures against it to slow up the convention and mess up the scripting, select the convention chair, declare Vice President Paul, and in short do this, except in prime time for all the TV cameras to the Rominee itself.
Rominee Tongue I like that.

I really do need to get myself over to Tampa sometime, but high school starts like three days before the convention starts...
The convention takes place a week or two after I start my Sophomore year. But, I have a slight chance of going to the RNC through my volunteer work for Hasner's congressional campaign, and the fact that my dads friends son is the executive director of the state party.
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« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2012, 01:49:42 pm »
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Could he?  Yes.  But the chances are much smaller than what the RP people are saying.
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« Reply #21 on: May 06, 2012, 01:51:02 pm »
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Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.

Longer answer: No, but he can seize control of a good chunk of the state parties and a portion of the national one, decide the policy planks, use the GOP's procedures against it to slow up the convention and mess up the scripting, select the convention chair, declare Vice President Paul, and in short do this, except in prime time for all the TV cameras to the Rominee itself.
Rominee Tongue I like that.

I really do need to get myself over to Tampa sometime, but high school starts like three days before the convention starts...
The convention takes place a week or two after I start my Sophomore year. But, I have a slight chance of going to the RNC through my volunteer work for Hasner's congressional campaign, and the fact that my dads friends son is the executive director of the state party.

Lucky. I'm in Bill Young (Old)'s district so we haven't had a competitive House election in like 40 some years, and my dad works for the local newspaper so it'll be all hands on deck for covering the convention...
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« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2012, 03:44:13 pm »
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Fun update: From what I've heard, Nevada and Maine's convention were both complete Paul sweeps. The state apparatus in Nevada (Chair, etc) was completely taken over, the same in Maine. Paul gained 22 of 25 delegates in Nevada and 22 of 22 in Maine, though I'm unsure of how those delegates were bound (so its possible they'll simply abstain in the first round of nomination voting).

EDIT: Nevada has 28 delegates overall. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 3 of those aren't voted on (I think they're superdelegates?) and will almost certainly vote Romney, and 3 went to Romney. Furthermore, 20 of the 28 are bound to Romney regardless, so depending on the status of the 3 unvoted delegates that means Paul gets either 2, 5, or 8 "outright" delegate votes, and potentially Romney gets a bunch of abstained votes for round 1.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 03:51:21 pm by ModernBourbon Democrat »Logged

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« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2012, 03:48:28 pm »
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If I were the Ron Paul campaign manager, I'd be dumping all the money into winning CA as a last-ditch effort to win enough delegates to have an impact going into the convention
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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2012, 06:28:55 pm »
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Isn't there some rule about needing to win 5 states to be considered for nomination?  And in this case, does "winning" a state just mean getting the most delegates, regardless off how the state voted?
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