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Author Topic: Egypt 2012 presidential election  (Read 5049 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #100 on: May 28, 2012, 11:21:07 am »
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Mahmoud, who do you think wins ?

Probably Morsi, because the Brotherhood did already very well in the parliamentary elections ?

Looks like a vote between cancer and ebola to me ... Tongue
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« Reply #101 on: May 28, 2012, 12:06:02 pm »
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Turnout seems low for being the first free election in several decades...
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« Reply #102 on: May 28, 2012, 02:17:50 pm »
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Danish state TV quote Al-Akhbar for saying that a court decision on june 11. can prevent "ex-Mubarak officials" from participating in the second round. Could give Sabahi a second chance.
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« Reply #103 on: May 28, 2012, 03:00:43 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on May 28, 2012, 11:21:07 am
Mahmoud, who do you think wins ?

Probably Morsi, because the Brotherhood did already very well in the parliamentary elections ?

Looks like a vote between cancer and ebola to me ... Tongue
Well, it depends. If the MB can gather other political forces around them, like Fotouh and Sabahi's voters, then Morsi will win. If though they refuse to vote and boycott the second round, then it's a hard guess, with me believing Shafiq would have a slightly better chance.
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« Reply #104 on: May 28, 2012, 03:12:49 pm »
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Quote from: fascistbeijingregime on May 28, 2012, 02:17:50 pm
Danish state TV quote Al-Akhbar for saying that a court decision on june 11. can prevent "ex-Mubarak officials" from participating in the second round. Could give Sabahi a second chance.

Actually such a law was already made by the parliament around a month ago or so, that would have actually prevented Omar Sulaiman and Shafiq from running into elections. But the elections commitee strangely put them back into the race, and now there are marches demanding them to take Shafiq out of the second round, for Sabahi to be in. Well, we just wait and see.
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« Reply #105 on: May 29, 2012, 02:13:47 am »
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Quote from: big bad fab on May 23, 2012, 07:01:34 am
Morsi will win over Fotouh Shafiq in the 2nd round.

Updated/fixed.
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« Reply #106 on: May 29, 2012, 05:34:04 am »
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Have any of you seen any reliable data on the voting pattern of the Coptic Christians? It would be interesting to see their preferences. I guess you could deduct the info from voting pattern from certain districts, but I am unsure of the exact demographical distribution of Copts on a district level.  
« Last Edit: May 29, 2012, 05:36:50 am by fascistbeijingregime »Logged
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« Reply #107 on: May 29, 2012, 10:44:29 am »
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Quote from: ZhōngguóGòngchǎndǎng=criminals on May 29, 2012, 05:34:04 am
Have any of you seen any reliable data on the voting pattern of the Coptic Christians? It would be interesting to see their preferences. I guess you could deduct the info from voting pattern from certain districts, but I am unsure of the exact demographical distribution of Copts on a district level.  

Overwhelmingly Shafik I'd think. Likewise with the Sufi minority, I hear.
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« Reply #108 on: May 29, 2012, 01:41:13 pm »
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Yes, the majority voted for Shafiq, but no exact numbers.
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« Reply #109 on: June 02, 2012, 11:06:49 pm »
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In Constitution, what is most likely? Egypt as federal state or unitary state? Federalism would be a not so unlegitimate way to prevent a big power for MB. Imagine a Sabbahi as Governor of Cairo.
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« Reply #110 on: June 03, 2012, 10:39:52 am »
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Mahmoud, the conventional wisdom in the English language media seems to be that the outrage over the Mubarak verdict is sure to help Morsi.  Is this what people are saying in Egypt as well?
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« Reply #111 on: June 16, 2012, 02:26:33 pm »
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Any idea what's going on there right now?
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« Reply #112 on: June 16, 2012, 05:41:37 pm »
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Here's an interesting roundup of turnout reports:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201206160623.html
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« Reply #113 on: June 17, 2012, 03:33:44 pm »
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This thread is pretty quiet...
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Quote from: krazen1211 on January 17, 2013, 06:26:56 pm
15 rounds for the elites but 7 for the people. Interesting.

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« Reply #114 on: June 17, 2012, 03:35:54 pm »
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Quote from: Beet on June 17, 2012, 03:33:44 pm
This thread is pretty quiet...
I Dont think any results will be posted until at the earliest tomorrow.
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« Reply #115 on: June 17, 2012, 03:41:33 pm »
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Quote from: Beet on June 17, 2012, 03:33:44 pm
This thread is pretty quiet...

I heard that a Muslim Brotherhood campaign worker was shot dead, but that's all the news I've heard.
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« Reply #116 on: June 17, 2012, 04:22:10 pm »
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Guardian election blog:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/jun/17/egypt-elections-shafiq-morsi-live?newsfeed=true

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Shorouk update: 50 reporting, 85,435 for Morsi, 65,795 for Shafiq.

It looks like Shafiq's people are accusing the Muslim Brotherhood of electoral fraud, rather than the other way around.....suggesting that Morsi is winning.
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« Reply #117 on: June 17, 2012, 06:46:10 pm »
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Latest update from the Guardian:

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• The Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohammed Morsi has taken an early lead with up to a quarter of the votes counted. But the campaign of former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq is claiming that he will triumph.

• Shafiq's campaign made more than 100 complaints about ballot rigging by the Muslim Brotherhood. A spokesman said: "The Muslim Brotherhood systematic election violations prove how they do not believe in freedom of choice and democracy unless it brings them to power."

• The level of voting was hit by apathy and a boycott campaign, which will lead to questions of legitimacy for Egypt's next president, whoever he is. Turnout was reported to be between 15% and 40%. Polling was extended by two hours in a bid to boost turnout.
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« Reply #118 on: June 17, 2012, 08:08:37 pm »
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69% of results aggregated:

Morsi - 9,191,539 (53.9%)

Shafiq - 7,846,591 (46.1%)


9067 out of 13099 polling stations.
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« Reply #119 on: June 17, 2012, 08:11:01 pm »
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So it could still be a nailbiter?
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« Reply #120 on: June 17, 2012, 09:25:06 pm »
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Well, it's been a while since I posted here. Blame that on the exams Cheesy

Anyway, the first results show that Mursi is the new Egyptian president with 52.6% lead. That's around 11,973,841 votes, and Shafiq having 10,782,190 votes, or 47.4% of the valid votes.
Final results are coming out on Tuesday Thursday.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2012, 10:16:52 pm by Mahmoud »Logged
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« Reply #121 on: June 18, 2012, 11:01:58 am »
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Has Mursi said anything about the court invalidating the parliamentary elections?  Can he do anything about it once he's president?
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« Reply #122 on: June 22, 2012, 01:50:49 pm »
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Results to be certified this weekend, possibly sooner.  Rumors abound that SCAF will just declare Shafiq president.
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« Reply #123 on: June 24, 2012, 03:36:59 am »
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Apparently, results will be released today at 3pm local time, which I think is just over 4 hours from now.
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« Reply #124 on: June 24, 2012, 09:05:49 am »
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The Election Commission guy is speaking now - he's not actually announced the result yet, he's just going on about all of the appeals etc.
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