Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 23, 2014, 03:24:28 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  Egypt 2012 presidential election
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 Print
Author Topic: Egypt 2012 presidential election  (Read 7151 times)
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19401
United States


View Profile
« on: May 06, 2012, 12:47:53 am »
Ignore

First round is May 23-24, and runoff is June 16-17 if necessary.

So what's going on here?  Is Fotouh actually going to win this thing?
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12530


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2012, 01:00:19 am »
Ignore

Either Fotouh or Moussa has been my understanding.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
The Mikado
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14421


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2012, 08:41:12 pm »
Ignore

Salafists have been flocking to Fotouh in order to block the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi, apparently.  There's a lot of bad blood between the Salafists and the Brothers.  So Moussa for the secularists, Morsi for the Brotherhood, and Fotouh for Islamists that aren't in the Brotherhood.

Also, Fotouh's new ad is the best political ad of all time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1aMIZZUaGM

I have absolutely no idea what it's about, but it's the best political ad of all time.
Logged

Einzige is a poltroon who cowardly turns down duel challenges he should be honor-bound to accept. The Code Duello authorizes you to mock and belittle such a pathetic honorless scoundrel.
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19401
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2012, 06:22:48 am »
Ignore

Salafists have been flocking to Fotouh in order to block the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi, apparently.  There's a lot of bad blood between the Salafists and the Brothers.  So Moussa for the secularists, Morsi for the Brotherhood, and Fotouh for Islamists that aren't in the Brotherhood.

Right, but Fotouh also seems to be making a hard push for more secular voters (like the Tahrir Square youths) who just really really hate the ruling generals and are suspicious of Moussa because he used to serve in Mubarak's government.  It just seems like Fotouh is in a position where he'd have a good chance in a runoff against Moussa, and a good chance in a runoff against Morsi.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Peter the Lefty
Peternerdman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3439
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2012, 11:06:44 am »
Ignore

So the Salafists who are backing Fotouh are doing it because he's not Morsi.  And the secular/Tahrir types are backing him because he's not Moussa.  Interesting.  I'd probably be for Khaled Ali if I were Egyptian, but he doesn't have a chance at all.  Is he expected at least to make a strong showing?
Logged



-7.61 Economic
-7.48 Social
cavalcade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 746


Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -3.13

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2012, 04:46:06 pm »
Ignore

Pew didn't poll an election matchup, but Moussa has 81% favorability and Fotouh has 58% favorable.  Nothing on Morsi himself but the Muslim Brotherhood is at 70%.

For comparison, the U.S. is at a whopping 19%.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/05/08/egyptians-remain-optimistic-embrace-democracy-and-religion-in-political-life/1/
Logged
Peter the Lefty
Peternerdman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3439
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2012, 06:13:32 pm »
Ignore

Pew didn't poll an election matchup, but Moussa has 81% favorability and Fotouh has 58% favorable.  Nothing on Morsi himself but the Muslim Brotherhood is at 70%.

For comparison, the U.S. is at a whopping 19%.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/05/08/egyptians-remain-optimistic-embrace-democracy-and-religion-in-political-life/1/
OUCH
Logged



-7.61 Economic
-7.48 Social
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4233
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2012, 05:23:57 am »
Ignore

Bold prediction: I *think* Fotouh should be able to win this on the strength of his second round coalition of voters. Though I understand first round polls are all close enough that there could be some major surprise in who goes trough to the run-off.
Logged

Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19401
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2012, 06:18:01 am »
Ignore

Apparently, there's a new poll showing Moussa winning in a landslide against any conceivable challenger in the second round.  But I don't think anyone considers the Egyptian polls reliable, so I don't know if it's worth putting any stock into.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
The Mikado
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14421


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2012, 01:42:29 am »
Ignore

Bold prediction: I *think* Fotouh should be able to win this on the strength of his second round coalition of voters. Though I understand first round polls are all close enough that there could be some major surprise in who goes trough to the run-off.

I think Belgian's right.  If it's Fotouh v. Morsi, all the anti-Islamic Brotherhood secular vote goes to Fotouh.  If it's Fotouh v. Moussa, all of the Islamic Brotherhood people reluctantly vote for the splittist Fotouh over the secular Moussa.
Logged

Einzige is a poltroon who cowardly turns down duel challenges he should be honor-bound to accept. The Code Duello authorizes you to mock and belittle such a pathetic honorless scoundrel.
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19401
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2012, 05:52:22 am »
Ignore

So this is happening today, isn't it?  Any last minute predictions?
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2012, 07:01:34 am »
Ignore

Morsi will win over Fotouh in the 2nd round.

Arab elections these days are very "classical" in their results.
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19401
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2012, 07:19:37 am »
Ignore

I actually don't think Morsi will make it to the second round.  I suspect Fotouh and Moussa are the top two, but I won't predict %ages.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4233
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2012, 10:48:29 am »
Ignore

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.
Logged

cavalcade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 746


Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -3.13

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2012, 12:51:50 pm »
Ignore

My guess is Moussa.
Logged
Mahmoud
Rookie
*
Posts: 29
Egypt
View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2012, 09:20:35 pm »
Ignore

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

Things in Egypt don't quite work this way. Over the internet sources (Facebook, Twitter..etc) you may find that Fotouh or Hamdeen having higher chances. Although, a large portion of the electors actually don't even log onto the internet (almost 60% of Egyptian people are illiterates). And in reality, the most group that work really well to reach almost every hamlet are the MB. So while Morsi's chances don't seem that high over the internet, he is, in reality, one of the strongest candidates.

My guesses are that it will be either Morsi and Moussa or Morsi and Fotouh in the second round.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2012, 09:23:47 pm by Mahmoud »Logged
RodPresident
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 850
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2012, 11:27:31 pm »
Ignore

Can Sabahi get an upset and get a place in run-off as a secular left-wing candidate? In my opinion, some pro-Mubarak supporters can get behind him to prevent a victory for a Muslim Brotherhood guy.
Logged


10 years without Brizola
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4233
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2012, 10:19:54 am »
Ignore

Bizarre incident:

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/36/122/42456/Presidential-elections-/Presidential-elections-news/Shafiq-breaks-electoral-law,-referred-to-prosecuto.aspx

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

Things in Egypt don't quite work this way. Over the internet sources (Facebook, Twitter..etc) you may find that Fotouh or Hamdeen having higher chances. Although, a large portion of the electors actually don't even log onto the internet (almost 60% of Egyptian people are illiterates). And in reality, the most group that work really well to reach almost every hamlet are the MB. So while Morsi's chances don't seem that high over the internet, he is, in reality, one of the strongest candidates.

My guesses are that it will be either Morsi and Moussa or Morsi and Fotouh in the second round.

Obviously being on the ground you'll have a much sharper image of what's going on than any of us. Can I ask where in Egypt you are?
Logged

Mahmoud
Rookie
*
Posts: 29
Egypt
View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2012, 02:26:43 pm »
Ignore

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.
Logged
Mahmoud
Rookie
*
Posts: 29
Egypt
View Profile
« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2012, 02:43:45 pm »
Ignore

Elections are over, turnout was around 55%. Waiting for the final results.
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: May 24, 2012, 02:55:58 pm »
Ignore

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Princess Kenny
Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37007


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: May 24, 2012, 02:58:35 pm »
Ignore

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster! Smiley
Logged

Mahmoud
Rookie
*
Posts: 29
Egypt
View Profile
« Reply #22 on: May 24, 2012, 03:03:11 pm »
Ignore

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

First results can be expected tomorrow. Final results will be on Saturday.

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster! Smiley

Thanks a lot, it's great to be here, I've learnt quite a lot in the past days about elections process around the world Smiley
And where did you learn Arabic? Wink
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: May 24, 2012, 03:07:19 pm »
Ignore

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

First results can be expected tomorrow. Final results will be on Saturday.
Thanks!

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster! Smiley
First Arab poster, too.

Heck, if Australia/NZ (duh), South America, Russia, people living in the west of immigrant ancestry, and people posting on vacation to say India or Morocco all do not count... first non-western poster.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Princess Kenny
Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37007


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: May 24, 2012, 03:09:54 pm »
Ignore

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

First results can be expected tomorrow. Final results will be on Saturday.

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster! Smiley

Thanks a lot, it's great to be here, I've learnt quite a lot in the past days about elections process around the world Smiley
And where did you learn Arabic? Wink

أنا طالب في جامعة وارسو وأدرس اللغة العربية هناك

I'm still learning, actually, so please forgive any errors Smiley

Outside of MSA, I'll have Egyptian Arabic next year.
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines