Egypt 2012 presidential election

[Mr. Morden]

First round is May 23-24, and runoff is June 16-17 if necessary.

So what's going on here?  Is Fotouh actually going to win this thing?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Either Fotouh or Moussa has been my understanding.

[The Mikado]

Salafists have been flocking to Fotouh in order to block the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi, apparently.  There's a lot of bad blood between the Salafists and the Brothers.  So Moussa for the secularists, Morsi for the Brotherhood, and Fotouh for Islamists that aren't in the Brotherhood.

Also, Fotouh's new ad is the best political ad of all time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1aMIZZUaGM

I have absolutely no idea what it's about, but it's the best political ad of all time.

[Mr. Morden]

Salafists have been flocking to Fotouh in order to block the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi, apparently.  There's a lot of bad blood between the Salafists and the Brothers.  So Moussa for the secularists, Morsi for the Brotherhood, and Fotouh for Islamists that aren't in the Brotherhood.

Right, but Fotouh also seems to be making a hard push for more secular voters (like the Tahrir Square youths) who just really really hate the ruling generals and are suspicious of Moussa because he used to serve in Mubarak's government.  It just seems like Fotouh is in a position where he'd have a good chance in a runoff against Moussa, and a good chance in a runoff against Morsi.

[Peter the Lefty]

So the Salafists who are backing Fotouh are doing it because he's not Morsi.  And the secular/Tahrir types are backing him because he's not Moussa.  Interesting.  I'd probably be for Khaled Ali if I were Egyptian, but he doesn't have a chance at all.  Is he expected at least to make a strong showing?

[cavalcade]

Pew didn't poll an election matchup, but Moussa has 81% favorability and Fotouh has 58% favorable.  Nothing on Morsi himself but the Muslim Brotherhood is at 70%.

For comparison, the U.S. is at a whopping 19%.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/05/08/egyptians-remain-optimistic-embrace-democracy-and-religion-in-political-life/1/

[Peter the Lefty]

Pew didn't poll an election matchup, but Moussa has 81% favorability and Fotouh has 58% favorable.  Nothing on Morsi himself but the Muslim Brotherhood is at 70%.

For comparison, the U.S. is at a whopping 19%.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/05/08/egyptians-remain-optimistic-embrace-democracy-and-religion-in-political-life/1/

OUCH

[Insula Dei]

Bold prediction: I *think* Fotouh should be able to win this on the strength of his second round coalition of voters. Though I understand first round polls are all close enough that there could be some major surprise in who goes trough to the run-off.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, there's a new poll showing Moussa winning in a landslide against any conceivable challenger in the second round.  But I don't think anyone considers the Egyptian polls reliable, so I don't know if it's worth putting any stock into.

[The Mikado]

Bold prediction: I *think* Fotouh should be able to win this on the strength of his second round coalition of voters. Though I understand first round polls are all close enough that there could be some major surprise in who goes trough to the run-off.

I think Belgian's right.  If it's Fotouh v. Morsi, all the anti-Islamic Brotherhood secular vote goes to Fotouh.  If it's Fotouh v. Moussa, all of the Islamic Brotherhood people reluctantly vote for the splittist Fotouh over the secular Moussa.

[Mr. Morden]

So this is happening today, isn't it?  Any last minute predictions?

[big bad fab]

Morsi will win over Fotouh in the 2nd round.

Arab elections these days are very "classical" in their results.

[Mr. Morden]

I actually don't think Morsi will make it to the second round.  I suspect Fotouh and Moussa are the top two, but I won't predict %ages.

[Insula Dei]

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

[cavalcade]

My guess is Moussa.

[Mahmoud]

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

Things in Egypt don't quite work this way. Over the internet sources (Facebook, Twitter..etc) you may find that Fotouh or Hamdeen having higher chances. Although, a large portion of the electors actually don't even log onto the internet (almost 60% of Egyptian people are illiterates). And in reality, the most group that work really well to reach almost every hamlet are the MB. So while Morsi's chances don't seem that high over the internet, he is, in reality, one of the strongest candidates.

My guesses are that it will be either Morsi and Moussa or Morsi and Fotouh in the second round.

[RodPresident]

Can Sabahi get an upset and get a place in run-off as a secular left-wing candidate? In my opinion, some pro-Mubarak supporters can get behind him to prevent a victory for a Muslim Brotherhood guy.

[Insula Dei]

Bizarre incident:

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/36/122/42456/Presidential-elections-/Presidential-elections-news/Shafiq-breaks-electoral-law,-referred-to-prosecuto.aspx

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

Things in Egypt don't quite work this way. Over the internet sources (Facebook, Twitter..etc) you may find that Fotouh or Hamdeen having higher chances. Although, a large portion of the electors actually don't even log onto the internet (almost 60% of Egyptian people are illiterates). And in reality, the most group that work really well to reach almost every hamlet are the MB. So while Morsi's chances don't seem that high over the internet, he is, in reality, one of the strongest candidates.

My guesses are that it will be either Morsi and Moussa or Morsi and Fotouh in the second round.

Obviously being on the ground you'll have a much sharper image of what's going on than any of us. Can I ask where in Egypt you are?

[Mahmoud]

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

[Mahmoud]

Elections are over, turnout was around 55%. Waiting for the final results.

[minionofmidas]

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster!

[Mahmoud]

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

First results can be expected tomorrow. Final results will be on Saturday.

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster!

Thanks a lot, it's great to be here, I've learnt quite a lot in the past days about elections process around the world
And where did you learn Arabic?

[minionofmidas]

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

First results can be expected tomorrow. Final results will be on Saturday.

Thanks!

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster!

First Arab poster, too.

Heck, if Australia/NZ (duh), South America, Russia, people living in the west of immigrant ancestry, and people posting on vacation to say India or Morocco all do not count... first non-western poster.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

First results can be expected tomorrow. Final results will be on Saturday.

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster!

Thanks a lot, it's great to be here, I've learnt quite a lot in the past days about elections process around the world
And where did you learn Arabic?

أنا طالب في جامعة وارسو وأدرس اللغة العربية هناك

I'm still learning, actually, so please forgive any errors

Outside of MSA, I'll have Egyptian Arabic next year.