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Author Topic: Egypt 2012 presidential election  (Read 7872 times)
RodPresident
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« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2012, 03:19:08 pm »
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I had saw Al Jazeera exit polls
Morsi: 25%
Sabbahi: 22%
Foutouh: 21%
Moussa: 19%
To close to call, but a very surprising run-off. Maybe Shafik strategy was to put Mubarakites as kingmakers in run-off, taking votes from Moussa and putting an all-revolutionary run-off.
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« Reply #26 on: May 24, 2012, 03:26:12 pm »
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Are exit polls at all useful in this situation? (I don't have a preconceived answer to this, I'm honestly curious.)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #27 on: May 24, 2012, 03:27:18 pm »
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Hamdeen Sabahi? Yeah, sources I saw that gave Shafiq an outside chance accorded the same to him as well. Much more sympathetic than Shafiq, obviously. Smiley

But I didn't see it on Al Jazeera's website, and a little search seems to turn up dubious exit polls - often released last night that predict just about everybody in a runoff vs Morsi. Though several had good showings for Sabahi.
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #28 on: May 24, 2012, 03:28:57 pm »
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To reiterate:
Quote
Morsy with 26 percent of votes, Moussa 25.3 percent, Ahmed Shafiq 17.6 percent, Hamdeen Sabbahi 12.2 percent and Abouel Fotouh 10 percent.

Quote
moderate Islamist Abdul Moneim Abu Al Fotouh and the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohammad Mursi won 26.3 per cent and 24.2 per cent of the vote respectively after the first day of the two-day polls.

Leftist contender Hamdeen Sabahi is in third place with 21 per cent, followed by Ahmad Shafiq, Mubarak's last premier, with 11 per cent and Amr Mousa, the former foreign minister, with 10 per cent.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
RodPresident
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« Reply #29 on: May 24, 2012, 03:31:55 pm »
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Another exit poll (Revolution Shadow Government):
Fotouh: 26.3%
Morsi: 24.2%
Sabbahi: 21%
Shafiq: 11%
Moussa: 10%
I doubt exit polls, although Sabbahi can be a electable choice against Islamites in run-off.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #30 on: May 24, 2012, 03:39:30 pm »
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Interesting article, highly sombre viewpoint
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #31 on: May 24, 2012, 03:41:52 pm »
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So basically round 2 will be between Morsi and someone who should easily beat Morsi?

To reiterate:
Quote
Morsy with 26 percent of votes, Moussa 25.3 percent, Ahmed Shafiq 17.6 percent, Hamdeen Sabbahi 12.2 percent and Abouel Fotouh 10 percent.

Quote
moderate Islamist Abdul Moneim Abu Al Fotouh and the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohammad Mursi won 26.3 per cent and 24.2 per cent of the vote respectively after the first day of the two-day polls.

Leftist contender Hamdeen Sabahi is in third place with 21 per cent, followed by Ahmad Shafiq, Mubarak's last premier, with 11 per cent and Amr Mousa, the former foreign minister, with 10 per cent.

Looks like the second one is polling more urban/liberal areas than the first, correct?  Those are some pretty big differences in support between the two.
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« Reply #32 on: May 24, 2012, 03:44:00 pm »
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The first is from someone close to the Moussa campaign. Both of these were released after the first day of polling. Grin
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Mahmoud
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« Reply #33 on: May 24, 2012, 04:10:58 pm »
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First results are actually quite mixed, with every TV channel reporting different results, that's why I said to expect first results tomorrow, to get better picture.
Round 2 I guess will be between Morsi and another one, though the result depends on who is the other. If Morsi against Fotouh or Sabahi, then he will be beaten. But if he will be against Shafiq or Moussa, then he has the upper hand.


I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster! Smiley
First Arab poster, too.

Heck, if Australia/NZ (duh), South America, Russia, people living in the west of immigrant ancestry, and people posting on vacation to say India or Morocco all do not count... first non-western poster.

Lol, that is a great honor Smiley

Thanks a lot, it's great to be here, I've learnt quite a lot in the past days about elections process around the world Smiley
And where did you learn Arabic? Wink

أنا طالب في جامعة وارسو وأدرس اللغة العربية هناك

I'm still learning, actually, so please forgive any errors Smiley

Outside of MSA, I'll have Egyptian Arabic next year.

Great! I'm sure you will love Egyptian Arabic Smiley
And for the record, you had no mistakes up there sir Wink
« Last Edit: May 24, 2012, 04:21:34 pm by Mahmoud »Logged
ag
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« Reply #34 on: May 24, 2012, 07:08:42 pm »
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Al Ahram has live reporting of scattered results. According to them, Freedom and Justice Party is reporting the following results from 678 polling stations accross the country

1.Mursi 165,874 (35.5 per cent)
2.Shafiq 103,648 (22.2 per cent)
3.Abul-Fotouh 77,947 (16.7 per cent)
4.Sabbahi 53,941   (11.5 per cent)
5.Moussa 53,181   (11.4 per cent)

Several of Al Ahram's own reports from various governorates show similar results.
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ag
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« Reply #35 on: May 24, 2012, 07:14:25 pm »
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Though, actually, scanning Al Ahram's reports, it looks extremely diverse, so, any number of precincts at this point isn't going to be all that informative, unless we know what they are.
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ag
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« Reply #36 on: May 24, 2012, 07:19:30 pm »
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For a look at how the rich Egyptians are voting, a report from a wealthy Cairo precinct (in Zamalek district):
Total votes 3,165, of which:

Moussa 1,086
Shafiq 787
Sabbahi 625
Abul Fotouh 467
Mursi 89

Talk of a class war Smiley
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LastVoter
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« Reply #37 on: May 24, 2012, 07:30:39 pm »
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Can Sabahi win this? Or should I be disappointed already.
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Mahmoud
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« Reply #38 on: May 24, 2012, 07:38:29 pm »
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Up until now the first results from 2,574 poll stations are:
Morsi 1,156,278
Shafiq 716,349
Fotouh 684,834
Sabahi 551,023
Moussa 461,242

Don't take these as indications though, things tend to change, as Shafiq was third and now second, and there are almost 11,000 more poll stations.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #39 on: May 24, 2012, 07:41:48 pm »
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Up until now the first results from 2,574 poll stations are:
Morsi 1,156,278
Shafiq 716,349
Fotouh 684,834
Sabahi 551,023
Moussa 461,242

Don't take these as indications though, things tend to change, as Shafiq was third and now second, and there are almost 11,000 more poll stations.
Hmm I guess it's not impossible that he will make it to the run-off? What kind of areas had already votes counted, rich or poor? And do poor people even support Sabahi?
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Mahmoud
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« Reply #40 on: May 24, 2012, 07:50:25 pm »
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I guess it will be between Morsi and Shafiq.
Areas that has been counted include but not limited to Alexandria, Giza, Suhag, Qena, Aswan, Sharqia, Asyout among others. These cities are mixed, you find both rich and poor people, though large portions of poor people don't support/know Sabahi.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #41 on: May 24, 2012, 07:56:09 pm »
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Morsi vs. Shafiq?

I...think I might have to support the Islamic Brotherhood.  I can't believe it.  Sad

Mahmoud, you have my sympathy.  Those are terrible options.
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Mahmoud
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« Reply #42 on: May 24, 2012, 08:06:05 pm »
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Morsi vs. Shafiq?

I...think I might have to support the Islamic Brotherhood.  I can't believe it.  Sad

Mahmoud, you have my sympathy.  Those are terrible options.

Yes, revolutionists and seculars would support Morsi over Shafiq anyday. To have the Muslims Brotherhood is better than having the old regime again, albeit with different faces.
Though lots say they would boycott voting if the run-off was between them two.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #43 on: May 24, 2012, 08:16:40 pm »
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Morsi vs. Shafiq?

I...think I might have to support the Islamic Brotherhood.  I can't believe it.  Sad

Mahmoud, you have my sympathy.  Those are terrible options.

Yes, revolutionists and seculars would support Morsi over Shafiq anyday. To have the Muslims Brotherhood is better than having the old regime again, albeit with different faces.
Though lots say they would boycott voting if the run-off was between them two.

Ouch... that's a tricky choice. Lesser of two evils vote for most people then?
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Mahmoud
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« Reply #44 on: May 24, 2012, 08:25:24 pm »
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Morsi vs. Shafiq?

I...think I might have to support the Islamic Brotherhood.  I can't believe it.  Sad

Mahmoud, you have my sympathy.  Those are terrible options.

Yes, revolutionists and seculars would support Morsi over Shafiq anyday. To have the Muslims Brotherhood is better than having the old regime again, albeit with different faces.
Though lots say they would boycott voting if the run-off was between them two.

Ouch... that's a tricky choice. Lesser of two evils vote for most people then?

So it seems, yes.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #45 on: May 25, 2012, 04:29:44 am »
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NYT says that "several independent vote estimates" indicate that Morsi came in first and Shafiq in second, meaning that they'll face each other in the runoff.  It does indeed look like the order was:

1) Morsi
2) Shafiq
3) Fotouh
4) Sabahi
5) Moussa

Though they don't offer any exact numbers.
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« Reply #46 on: May 25, 2012, 05:24:03 am »
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The Guardian has a live blog on the results:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/may/25/egypt-elections-early-results-live
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Mahmoud
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« Reply #47 on: May 25, 2012, 05:29:03 am »
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Latest results show that:
1- Morsi 4,968,148
2- Shafiq 4,416,909
3- Sabahi 3,290,375
4- Fotouh 3,157,465
5- Moussa 2,132,382

These results are from 11,327 poll stations.
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« Reply #48 on: May 25, 2012, 06:22:32 am »
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I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

One of the Huffington Post images of the election (the only one showing the election outside of Cairo, I believe) is female voters in Qena. Just thought that was interesting. Image is here.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #49 on: May 25, 2012, 06:30:17 am »
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Damn it, no!
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