Egypt 2012 presidential election
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 01:50:35 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Egypt 2012 presidential election
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6
Author Topic: Egypt 2012 presidential election  (Read 23640 times)
Dereich
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,892


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: May 25, 2012, 03:17:54 PM »

I can't help think that this is kind of like the 1991 Louisiana governor's race. Its certainly not a good way to give a first impression of democracy.
Logged
hawkeye59
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: May 25, 2012, 03:24:40 PM »

He's the only leftist likely to win there and Nasserism sh**ts all over the other options.
Yes, let's wipe Israel off the map! And didn't Morsy promise democracy? It seems like he won't turn into a dictator or anything.

First of all, Nasserism is something far more complex.

Second of all, war of 1967 happened well over 40 years ago.
Yeah, that was really really really stupid. But I would like a winner to keep the peace treaty, and I trust Morsi to do that more than Sabbahi.

Even the Muslim Brotherhood is favoring honoring the peace treaty. 
Yes, but not Sabbahi.
http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/sabbahi-says-he-would-tear-israel-peace-treaty
I mean, he's great on social justice and other things, but so are the Muslim Brotherhood.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: May 25, 2012, 05:49:53 PM »

Actually, it's a pretty decent outcome. Muslim Brotherhood is, obviously, the most popular political force in the country, so, in a democracy, it should get the appropriate responsibility. The old regime is, clearly, still a major force - good that it gets to be heard (and, hopefully, defeated).
Logged
Peter the Lefty
Peternerdman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,506
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: May 25, 2012, 06:17:06 PM »

Any word on how Khaled Ali did?
Logged
Mahmoud
Rookie
**
Posts: 29
Egypt
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: May 25, 2012, 06:59:03 PM »

Around 25,285 votes. Not much.
Logged
Peter the Lefty
Peternerdman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,506
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: May 25, 2012, 08:48:45 PM »

Too bad.  I really liked him.  Hope he's able to get more traction next time around (assuming there is a next time).
Logged
Simfan34
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: May 26, 2012, 07:20:59 AM »

I must say I'm surprised, I had been given the impression that this was almost certainly going to end up between Fotouh and Moussa, clearly I was mistaken.
Logged
Mahmoud
Rookie
**
Posts: 29
Egypt
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: May 26, 2012, 08:30:06 AM »

I must say I'm surprised, I had been given the impression that this was almost certainly going to end up between Fotouh and Moussa, clearly I was mistaken.
I knew it was going to be between Mursi and another one, though I didn't hope for the other one to be Shafiq.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,677


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: May 26, 2012, 11:19:51 AM »

As depressing as this election is, Morsi won the first round fair and square.  At least Egypt's progressed forward from the "Mubarak wins 80% of the vote, again" days.

...

As you can probably guess, that's me desperately looking for a silver lining.
Logged
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,326
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: May 26, 2012, 01:25:36 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2012, 01:30:37 PM by Tussen Droom en Daad »

Actually, it's a pretty decent outcome. Muslim Brotherhood is, obviously, the most popular political force in the country, so, in a democracy, it should get the appropriate responsibility. The old regime is, clearly, still a major force - good that it gets to be heard (and, hopefully, defeated).

Find myself agreeing with this. Clearly Sabbahi in the second round would have been better, but these results aren't dramatic. Morsi represents the nation's largest party, Shafiq may have been tied to the previous regime close than seems desirable, but I believe he's also the man in whom a lot of Copts have placed a lot of trust. In what way is Shafiq worse than for example Moussa would have been? First round results were always going to be surprising.

EDIT: Though obviously if I were Egyptian I'd probably be very displeased with these results.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: May 26, 2012, 02:28:21 PM »

http://www.egyptpresident2012.com/index.php

Complete result.

Someone transliterate the also-runs' names for me.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: May 26, 2012, 05:07:07 PM »

Mahmoud-

I'm wondering if you can give us any insight into what's going to happen with the transfer of power if Morsi does win the runoff?  Does the military fear the Muslim Brotherhood enough that they'll renege on promises to give up power?  Will they be able to keep the elected government weak, and try to control things behind the scenes, like in Pakistan?
Logged
Mahmoud
Rookie
**
Posts: 29
Egypt
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: May 26, 2012, 06:34:52 PM »

http://www.egyptpresident2012.com/index.php

Complete result.

Someone transliterate the also-runs' names for me.

From right to left: First cell is the governorate's name, second is the total number of registered voters in it, third is the turnout for each one.
Then the also-rans' names are as follows from right to left: El-Hariry, Fawzy 'Eissa, Khair Allah, Moussa, Fotouh, Bastaweesy, Hossam, El-'Awa, Shafiq, Sabahi, El-Ash'al, Khaled Ali and Morsi.

The governorates' from top to bottom: Cairo, Giza, Daqahlia, Domiat, Suhag, South Sinai, Red Sea, Kafr El-Sheikh, Qena, Port Said, Alexandria, Aswan, Sharqia, Beheira, Gharbia, Elminia, Qalyobia, Monofia, Asyout, Fayoum, Beni Suef, Isamilia, Luxor, Suez, North Sinai, Matrouh, New Valley.

Last two cells at the bottom right are the total votes for each candidate and their percentage, respectively.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: May 26, 2012, 07:05:14 PM »

Winners by governate:

Cairo: Sabahi
Giza: Morsi
Daqahlia: Shafiq
Domiat: Fotouh
Suhag: Morsi
South Sinai: Moussa
Red Sea: Sabahi
Kafr El-Sheikh: Sabahi
Qena: Morsi
Port Said: Sabahi
Alexandria: Sabahi
Aswan: Morsi
Sharqia: Shafiq
Beheira: Morsi
Gharbia: Shafiq
Elminia: Morsi
Qalyobia: Shafiq
Monofia: Shafiq
Asyout: Morsi
Fayoum: Morsi
Beni Suef: Morsi
Isamilia: Morsi
Luxor: Shafiq
Suez: Morsi
North Sinai: Morsi
Matrouh: Fotouh
New Valley: Morsi

Anyone want to make a map?
Logged
Mahmoud
Rookie
**
Posts: 29
Egypt
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: May 26, 2012, 07:43:53 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2012, 07:54:09 PM by Mahmoud »

Mahmoud-

I'm wondering if you can give us any insight into what's going to happen with the transfer of power if Morsi does win the runoff?  Does the military fear the Muslim Brotherhood enough that they'll renege on promises to give up power?  Will they be able to keep the elected government weak, and try to control things behind the scenes, like in Pakistan?


Military fears and hates the Muslim Brotherhood, so they would make anything to make Shafiq win. But if Morsi wins, and we do hope so, there might be some conflicts between them, they will indeed transfer the power, but will not be completely co-operative. And I bet they will try to make Morsi and MB in general look bad in the eyes of the people, or at the very least will try to press on the constitution writers to give them special privileges so that the government can't interfere in their work or hold them accountable for anything they might have done, at least to not be brought to justice for what they did during Moubarak's period or the transitional period.
Logged
Donerail
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,345
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: May 26, 2012, 08:27:02 PM »

Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,677


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: May 26, 2012, 08:50:59 PM »

They must really like Moussa out in the Sinai.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: May 26, 2012, 09:03:52 PM »


Doesn't show up on my screen when you post it like that, but this does:


Logged
RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: May 26, 2012, 09:09:34 PM »

Sabbahi is complaining about frauds in election. Would Brotherhood or military fraud election to prevent him in run-off?
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: May 26, 2012, 09:26:42 PM »


Doesn't show up on my screen when you post it like that, but this does:




I see neither.
Logged
Donerail
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,345
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: May 26, 2012, 09:30:18 PM »


Try right-clicking and hitting open in new tab/window.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: May 27, 2012, 05:01:55 AM »

http://www.egyptpresident2012.com/index.php

Complete result.

Someone transliterate the also-runs' names for me.

From right to left: First cell is the governorate's name, second is the total number of registered voters in it, third is the turnout for each one.
Then the also-rans' names are as follows from right to left: El-Hariry, Fawzy 'Eissa, Khair Allah, Moussa, Fotouh, Bastaweesy, Hossam, El-'Awa, Shafiq, Sabahi, El-Ash'al, Khaled Ali and Morsi.

The governorates' from top to bottom: Cairo, Giza, Daqahlia, Domiat, Suhag, South Sinai, Red Sea, Kafr El-Sheikh, Qena, Port Said, Alexandria, Aswan, Sharqia, Beheira, Gharbia, Elminia, Qalyobia, Monofia, Asyout, Fayoum, Beni Suef, Isamilia, Luxor, Suez, North Sinai, Matrouh, New Valley.

Last two cells at the bottom right are the total votes for each candidate and their percentage, respectively.
Yeah, I knew I could figure the governorates out by comparing with the Al-Ahram table. Smiley



(rightclick for a bigger image.)

A few things to note:

I counted the places along the Suez Canal as not part of Lower Egypt; I have no idea whether this is accurate but they do vote differently.

Moussa did much better in peripheric places, including also far Upper Egypt. This makes sense if we assume a huge last minute swing from him to Shafiq (and perhaps Sabbahi as well) late in the campaign - people out in the boondocks basically didn't get the memo.

Number of invalid ballots calculated from turnout minus all candidates' totals, of course.

What's up with turnout in Upper Egypt? (Higher invalids too which makes perfect sense.) No candidate people in the South found convincing? Sabbahi had no organization up there apparently.

You've probably spotted it already - wtf Ismailiyah? Wtf indeed. Comparing with the Ahram figures, the total vote cast actually fits but Sabbahi and Shafiq are recorded as receiving far fewer votes in the official tallies. It's as if someone went through the pile and methodically declared every second Sabbahi vote and every fourth Shafiq vote invalid or something.

Another place where the data don't match (I mean don't match at all. They don't match exactly anywhere, which is to be expected with an unofficial tally - these will always include large numbers of honest mistakes) is Cairo. And here the discrepancy is that the official result found a cool 180k extra votes for Shafiq, not quite enough for him to beat Sabbahi there or Morsi nationally, but close to the first and closeish to the second. Hmmm...
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: May 27, 2012, 03:55:56 PM »

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/36/122/42958/Presidential-elections-/Presidential-elections-news/Egypt-analysts-examine-Moussas-electoral-failure,-.aspx
Logged
Mahmoud
Rookie
**
Posts: 29
Egypt
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: May 27, 2012, 07:53:29 PM »

Tomorrow, Monday, is when the final results are coming out.
Logged
Mahmoud
Rookie
**
Posts: 29
Egypt
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: May 28, 2012, 09:50:58 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2012, 10:00:16 AM by Mahmoud »

Final resutls are in, and they're as follows:
Total voters: 23,672,036
Valid votes: 23,256,615

Also-rans' votes are:
El-Hariry - 40,090
Fawzy Eissa - 23,889
Hossam Khair Allah - 22,036
Moussa - 2,588,350
Fotouh - 4,056,239
Bastaweesy - 29,189
Mahmoud Hossam - 23,992
El-'Awa - 235,374
Shafiq - 5,505,327
Sabahi - 4,820,273
El-Ash'al - 12,249
Khaled Ali - 134,056
Mursi - 5,764,952

So it's official, Mursi and Shafiq in the second round.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 12 queries.