Egypt 2012 presidential election

[Speaker Dereich]

I can't help think that this is kind of like the 1991 Louisiana governor's race. Its certainly not a good way to give a first impression of democracy.

[hawkeye59]

He's the only leftist likely to win there and Nasserism sh**ts all over the other options.

Yes, let's wipe Israel off the map! And didn't Morsy promise democracy? It seems like he won't turn into a dictator or anything.

First of all, Nasserism is something far more complex.

Second of all, war of 1967 happened well over 40 years ago.

Yeah, that was really really really stupid. But I would like a winner to keep the peace treaty, and I trust Morsi to do that more than Sabbahi.

Even the Muslim Brotherhood is favoring honoring the peace treaty. 

Yes, but not Sabbahi.
http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/sabbahi-says-he-would-tear-israel-peace-treaty
I mean, he's great on social justice and other things, but so are the Muslim Brotherhood.

[ag]

Actually, it's a pretty decent outcome. Muslim Brotherhood is, obviously, the most popular political force in the country, so, in a democracy, it should get the appropriate responsibility. The old regime is, clearly, still a major force - good that it gets to be heard (and, hopefully, defeated).

[Peter the Lefty]

Any word on how Khaled Ali did?

[Mahmoud]

Any word on how Khaled Ali did?

Around 25,285 votes. Not much.

[Peter the Lefty]

Any word on how Khaled Ali did?

Around 25,285 votes. Not much.

Too bad.  I really liked him.  Hope he's able to get more traction next time around (assuming there is a next time).

[Simfan34]

I must say I'm surprised, I had been given the impression that this was almost certainly going to end up between Fotouh and Moussa, clearly I was mistaken.

[Mahmoud]

I must say I'm surprised, I had been given the impression that this was almost certainly going to end up between Fotouh and Moussa, clearly I was mistaken.

I knew it was going to be between Mursi and another one, though I didn't hope for the other one to be Shafiq.

[The Mikado]

As depressing as this election is, Morsi won the first round fair and square.  At least Egypt's progressed forward from the "Mubarak wins 80% of the vote, again" days.

...

As you can probably guess, that's me desperately looking for a silver lining.

[Insula Dei]

Actually, it's a pretty decent outcome. Muslim Brotherhood is, obviously, the most popular political force in the country, so, in a democracy, it should get the appropriate responsibility. The old regime is, clearly, still a major force - good that it gets to be heard (and, hopefully, defeated).

Find myself agreeing with this. Clearly Sabbahi in the second round would have been better, but these results aren't dramatic. Morsi represents the nation's largest party, Shafiq may have been tied to the previous regime close than seems desirable, but I believe he's also the man in whom a lot of Copts have placed a lot of trust. In what way is Shafiq worse than for example Moussa would have been? First round results were always going to be surprising.

EDIT: Though obviously if I were Egyptian I'd probably be very displeased with these results.

[Vasall des Midas]

http://www.egyptpresident2012.com/index.php

Complete result.

Someone transliterate the also-runs' names for me.

[Mr. Morden]

Mahmoud-

I'm wondering if you can give us any insight into what's going to happen with the transfer of power if Morsi does win the runoff?  Does the military fear the Muslim Brotherhood enough that they'll renege on promises to give up power?  Will they be able to keep the elected government weak, and try to control things behind the scenes, like in Pakistan?

[Mahmoud]

http://www.egyptpresident2012.com/index.php

Complete result.

Someone transliterate the also-runs' names for me.

From right to left: First cell is the governorate's name, second is the total number of registered voters in it, third is the turnout for each one.
Then the also-rans' names are as follows from right to left: El-Hariry, Fawzy 'Eissa, Khair Allah, Moussa, Fotouh, Bastaweesy, Hossam, El-'Awa, Shafiq, Sabahi, El-Ash'al, Khaled Ali and Morsi.

The governorates' from top to bottom: Cairo, Giza, Daqahlia, Domiat, Suhag, South Sinai, Red Sea, Kafr El-Sheikh, Qena, Port Said, Alexandria, Aswan, Sharqia, Beheira, Gharbia, Elminia, Qalyobia, Monofia, Asyout, Fayoum, Beni Suef, Isamilia, Luxor, Suez, North Sinai, Matrouh, New Valley.

Last two cells at the bottom right are the total votes for each candidate and their percentage, respectively.

[Mr. Morden]

Winners by governate:

Cairo: Sabahi
Giza: Morsi
Daqahlia: Shafiq
Domiat: Fotouh
Suhag: Morsi
South Sinai: Moussa
Red Sea: Sabahi
Kafr El-Sheikh: Sabahi
Qena: Morsi
Port Said: Sabahi
Alexandria: Sabahi
Aswan: Morsi
Sharqia: Shafiq
Beheira: Morsi
Gharbia: Shafiq
Elminia: Morsi
Qalyobia: Shafiq
Monofia: Shafiq
Asyout: Morsi
Fayoum: Morsi
Beni Suef: Morsi
Isamilia: Morsi
Luxor: Shafiq
Suez: Morsi
North Sinai: Morsi
Matrouh: Fotouh
New Valley: Morsi

Anyone want to make a map?

[Mahmoud]

Mahmoud-

I'm wondering if you can give us any insight into what's going to happen with the transfer of power if Morsi does win the runoff?  Does the military fear the Muslim Brotherhood enough that they'll renege on promises to give up power?  Will they be able to keep the elected government weak, and try to control things behind the scenes, like in Pakistan?

Military fears and hates the Muslim Brotherhood, so they would make anything to make Shafiq win. But if Morsi wins, and we do hope so, there might be some conflicts between them, they will indeed transfer the power, but will not be completely co-operative. And I bet they will try to make Morsi and MB in general look bad in the eyes of the people, or at the very least will try to press on the constitution writers to give them special privileges so that the government can't interfere in their work or hold them accountable for anything they might have done, at least to not be brought to justice for what they did during Moubarak's period or the transitional period.

[Emperor SJoyce]

[The Mikado]

They must really like Moussa out in the Sinai.

[Mr. Morden]

Doesn't show up on my screen when you post it like that, but this does:

[RodPresident]

Sabbahi is complaining about frauds in election. Would Brotherhood or military fraud election to prevent him in run-off?

[Senator MaxQue]

Doesn't show up on my screen when you post it like that, but this does:

I see neither.

[Emperor SJoyce]

Doesn't show up on my screen when you post it like that, but this does:

I see neither.

Try right-clicking and hitting open in new tab/window.

[Vasall des Midas]

http://www.egyptpresident2012.com/index.php

Complete result.

Someone transliterate the also-runs' names for me.

From right to left: First cell is the governorate's name, second is the total number of registered voters in it, third is the turnout for each one.
Then the also-rans' names are as follows from right to left: El-Hariry, Fawzy 'Eissa, Khair Allah, Moussa, Fotouh, Bastaweesy, Hossam, El-'Awa, Shafiq, Sabahi, El-Ash'al, Khaled Ali and Morsi.

The governorates' from top to bottom: Cairo, Giza, Daqahlia, Domiat, Suhag, South Sinai, Red Sea, Kafr El-Sheikh, Qena, Port Said, Alexandria, Aswan, Sharqia, Beheira, Gharbia, Elminia, Qalyobia, Monofia, Asyout, Fayoum, Beni Suef, Isamilia, Luxor, Suez, North Sinai, Matrouh, New Valley.

Last two cells at the bottom right are the total votes for each candidate and their percentage, respectively.

Yeah, I knew I could figure the governorates out by comparing with the Al-Ahram table.



(rightclick for a bigger image.)

A few things to note:

I counted the places along the Suez Canal as not part of Lower Egypt; I have no idea whether this is accurate but they do vote differently.

Moussa did much better in peripheric places, including also far Upper Egypt. This makes sense if we assume a huge last minute swing from him to Shafiq (and perhaps Sabbahi as well) late in the campaign - people out in the boondocks basically didn't get the memo.

Number of invalid ballots calculated from turnout minus all candidates' totals, of course.

What's up with turnout in Upper Egypt? (Higher invalids too which makes perfect sense.) No candidate people in the South found convincing? Sabbahi had no organization up there apparently.

You've probably spotted it already - wtf Ismailiyah? Wtf indeed. Comparing with the Ahram figures, the total vote cast actually fits but Sabbahi and Shafiq are recorded as receiving far fewer votes in the official tallies. It's as if someone went through the pile and methodically declared every second Sabbahi vote and every fourth Shafiq vote invalid or something.

Another place where the data don't match (I mean don't match at all. They don't match exactly anywhere, which is to be expected with an unofficial tally - these will always include large numbers of honest mistakes) is Cairo. And here the discrepancy is that the official result found a cool 180k extra votes for Shafiq, not quite enough for him to beat Sabbahi there or Morsi nationally, but close to the first and closeish to the second. Hmmm...

[Vasall des Midas]

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/36/122/42958/Presidential-elections-/Presidential-elections-news/Egypt-analysts-examine-Moussas-electoral-failure,-.aspx

[Mahmoud]

Tomorrow, Monday, is when the final results are coming out.

[Mahmoud]

Final resutls are in, and they're as follows:
Total voters: 23,672,036
Valid votes: 23,256,615

Also-rans' votes are:
El-Hariry - 40,090
Fawzy Eissa - 23,889
Hossam Khair Allah - 22,036
Moussa - 2,588,350
Fotouh - 4,056,239
Bastaweesy - 29,189
Mahmoud Hossam - 23,992
El-'Awa - 235,374
Shafiq - 5,505,327
Sabahi - 4,820,273
El-Ash'al - 12,249
Khaled Ali - 134,056
Mursi - 5,764,952

So it's official, Mursi and Shafiq in the second round.