Egypt 2012 presidential election

[Mr. Morden]

First round is May 23-24, and runoff is June 16-17 if necessary.

So what's going on here?  Is Fotouh actually going to win this thing?

[Mr. Morden]

Salafists have been flocking to Fotouh in order to block the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi, apparently.  There's a lot of bad blood between the Salafists and the Brothers.  So Moussa for the secularists, Morsi for the Brotherhood, and Fotouh for Islamists that aren't in the Brotherhood.

Right, but Fotouh also seems to be making a hard push for more secular voters (like the Tahrir Square youths) who just really really hate the ruling generals and are suspicious of Moussa because he used to serve in Mubarak's government.  It just seems like Fotouh is in a position where he'd have a good chance in a runoff against Moussa, and a good chance in a runoff against Morsi.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, there's a new poll showing Moussa winning in a landslide against any conceivable challenger in the second round.  But I don't think anyone considers the Egyptian polls reliable, so I don't know if it's worth putting any stock into.

[Mr. Morden]

So this is happening today, isn't it?  Any last minute predictions?

[Mr. Morden]

I actually don't think Morsi will make it to the second round.  I suspect Fotouh and Moussa are the top two, but I won't predict %ages.

[Mr. Morden]

NYT says that "several independent vote estimates" indicate that Morsi came in first and Shafiq in second, meaning that they'll face each other in the runoff.  It does indeed look like the order was:

1) Morsi
2) Shafiq
3) Fotouh
4) Sabahi
5) Moussa

Though they don't offer any exact numbers.

[Mr. Morden]

Mahmoud-

I'm wondering if you can give us any insight into what's going to happen with the transfer of power if Morsi does win the runoff?  Does the military fear the Muslim Brotherhood enough that they'll renege on promises to give up power?  Will they be able to keep the elected government weak, and try to control things behind the scenes, like in Pakistan?

[Mr. Morden]

Winners by governate:

Cairo: Sabahi
Giza: Morsi
Daqahlia: Shafiq
Domiat: Fotouh
Suhag: Morsi
South Sinai: Moussa
Red Sea: Sabahi
Kafr El-Sheikh: Sabahi
Qena: Morsi
Port Said: Sabahi
Alexandria: Sabahi
Aswan: Morsi
Sharqia: Shafiq
Beheira: Morsi
Gharbia: Shafiq
Elminia: Morsi
Qalyobia: Shafiq
Monofia: Shafiq
Asyout: Morsi
Fayoum: Morsi
Beni Suef: Morsi
Isamilia: Morsi
Luxor: Shafiq
Suez: Morsi
North Sinai: Morsi
Matrouh: Fotouh
New Valley: Morsi

Anyone want to make a map?

[Mr. Morden]

Doesn't show up on my screen when you post it like that, but this does:

[Mr. Morden]

Mahmoud, the conventional wisdom in the English language media seems to be that the outrage over the Mubarak verdict is sure to help Morsi.  Is this what people are saying in Egypt as well?

[Mr. Morden]

Here's an interesting roundup of turnout reports:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201206160623.html

[Mr. Morden]

Guardian election blog:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/jun/17/egypt-elections-shafiq-morsi-live?newsfeed=true

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It looks like Shafiq's people are accusing the Muslim Brotherhood of electoral fraud, rather than the other way around.....suggesting that Morsi is winning.

[Mr. Morden]

Latest update from the Guardian:

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[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, results will be released today at 3pm local time, which I think is just over 4 hours from now.

[Mr. Morden]

Chickened out of a fullscale coup? Or just wanted to get some controls into place before confirming Morsi's victory? Or something entirely unsinister? We may find out yet, or we may never know...

If they did a full scale coup, there'd be blood on the streets.  The important thing from SCAF's point of view is that they're going to control the drafting of the constitution, which means that they'll carve out whatever power they want for themselves.  So there'll be a constitution, there'll be more elections, and a new Parliament, but it'll be on SCAF's terms.

[Mr. Morden]

The First Lady of Egypt in 1930 vs. 2012: