Egypt 2012 presidential election

[minionofmidas]

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

[minionofmidas]

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

First results can be expected tomorrow. Final results will be on Saturday.

Thanks!

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster!

First Arab poster, too.

Heck, if Australia/NZ (duh), South America, Russia, people living in the west of immigrant ancestry, and people posting on vacation to say India or Morocco all do not count... first non-western poster.

[minionofmidas]

Hamdeen Sabahi? Yeah, sources I saw that gave Shafiq an outside chance accorded the same to him as well. Much more sympathetic than Shafiq, obviously.

But I didn't see it on Al Jazeera's website, and a little search seems to turn up dubious exit polls - often released last night that predict just about everybody in a runoff vs Morsi. Though several had good showings for Sabahi.

[minionofmidas]

To reiterate:

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[minionofmidas]

Interesting article, highly sombre viewpoint

[minionofmidas]

The first is from someone close to the Moussa campaign. Both of these were released after the first day of polling.

[minionofmidas]

Wait, wasn't Moussa expected to win ? This looks like an upset.

Supposed, not expected.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YDny8KqE-U&feature=player_embedded

I like this accent.

[minionofmidas]

A quick look over the data here shows that the percentages and turnout data are wrong; according the national summary the eight also-rans received a total of paltry 0.3%. The cause of that is that for most governorates, the vote total given is actually just the sum of the five top candidates', yet some (how many? I didn't check. I checked a few and didn't find any, to be precise) are actual totals.

[minionofmidas]

Gizeh now in. Gap narrows a little, but no way Cairo is going to change that.

Still, a better than expected result for the candidate I would most likely have voted for, so...

[minionofmidas]

These results will make for great mapping once Cairo is in (wink wink nudge nudge).

[minionofmidas]

And here it is, tho' they didn't bother to include Moussa.

National Total
Mursi 5.55mio votes
Shafiq 5.21mio votes
Sabbahi 4.74mio votes
Futtuh 3.94mio votes
Moussa (excl. Cairo) 2.01mio votes

[minionofmidas]

http://www.egyptpresident2012.com/index.php

Complete result.

Someone transliterate the also-runs' names for me.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.egyptpresident2012.com/index.php

Complete result.

Someone transliterate the also-runs' names for me.

From right to left: First cell is the governorate's name, second is the total number of registered voters in it, third is the turnout for each one.
Then the also-rans' names are as follows from right to left: El-Hariry, Fawzy 'Eissa, Khair Allah, Moussa, Fotouh, Bastaweesy, Hossam, El-'Awa, Shafiq, Sabahi, El-Ash'al, Khaled Ali and Morsi.

The governorates' from top to bottom: Cairo, Giza, Daqahlia, Domiat, Suhag, South Sinai, Red Sea, Kafr El-Sheikh, Qena, Port Said, Alexandria, Aswan, Sharqia, Beheira, Gharbia, Elminia, Qalyobia, Monofia, Asyout, Fayoum, Beni Suef, Isamilia, Luxor, Suez, North Sinai, Matrouh, New Valley.

Last two cells at the bottom right are the total votes for each candidate and their percentage, respectively.

Yeah, I knew I could figure the governorates out by comparing with the Al-Ahram table.



(rightclick for a bigger image.)

A few things to note:

I counted the places along the Suez Canal as not part of Lower Egypt; I have no idea whether this is accurate but they do vote differently.

Moussa did much better in peripheric places, including also far Upper Egypt. This makes sense if we assume a huge last minute swing from him to Shafiq (and perhaps Sabbahi as well) late in the campaign - people out in the boondocks basically didn't get the memo.

Number of invalid ballots calculated from turnout minus all candidates' totals, of course.

What's up with turnout in Upper Egypt? (Higher invalids too which makes perfect sense.) No candidate people in the South found convincing? Sabbahi had no organization up there apparently.

You've probably spotted it already - wtf Ismailiyah? Wtf indeed. Comparing with the Ahram figures, the total vote cast actually fits but Sabbahi and Shafiq are recorded as receiving far fewer votes in the official tallies. It's as if someone went through the pile and methodically declared every second Sabbahi vote and every fourth Shafiq vote invalid or something.

Another place where the data don't match (I mean don't match at all. They don't match exactly anywhere, which is to be expected with an unofficial tally - these will always include large numbers of honest mistakes) is Cairo. And here the discrepancy is that the official result found a cool 180k extra votes for Shafiq, not quite enough for him to beat Sabbahi there or Morsi nationally, but close to the first and closeish to the second. Hmmm...

[minionofmidas]

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/36/122/42958/Presidential-elections-/Presidential-elections-news/Egypt-analysts-examine-Moussas-electoral-failure,-.aspx

[minionofmidas]

Chickened out of a fullscale coup? Or just wanted to get some controls into place before confirming Morsi's victory? Or something entirely unsinister? We may find out yet, or we may never know...