Egypt 2012 presidential election

[Insula Dei]

Bold prediction: I *think* Fotouh should be able to win this on the strength of his second round coalition of voters. Though I understand first round polls are all close enough that there could be some major surprise in who goes trough to the run-off.

[Insula Dei]

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

[Insula Dei]

Bizarre incident:

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/36/122/42456/Presidential-elections-/Presidential-elections-news/Shafiq-breaks-electoral-law,-referred-to-prosecuto.aspx

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

Things in Egypt don't quite work this way. Over the internet sources (Facebook, Twitter..etc) you may find that Fotouh or Hamdeen having higher chances. Although, a large portion of the electors actually don't even log onto the internet (almost 60% of Egyptian people are illiterates). And in reality, the most group that work really well to reach almost every hamlet are the MB. So while Morsi's chances don't seem that high over the internet, he is, in reality, one of the strongest candidates.

My guesses are that it will be either Morsi and Moussa or Morsi and Fotouh in the second round.

Obviously being on the ground you'll have a much sharper image of what's going on than any of us. Can I ask where in Egypt you are?

[Insula Dei]

Actually, it's a pretty decent outcome. Muslim Brotherhood is, obviously, the most popular political force in the country, so, in a democracy, it should get the appropriate responsibility. The old regime is, clearly, still a major force - good that it gets to be heard (and, hopefully, defeated).

Find myself agreeing with this. Clearly Sabbahi in the second round would have been better, but these results aren't dramatic. Morsi represents the nation's largest party, Shafiq may have been tied to the previous regime close than seems desirable, but I believe he's also the man in whom a lot of Copts have placed a lot of trust. In what way is Shafiq worse than for example Moussa would have been? First round results were always going to be surprising.

EDIT: Though obviously if I were Egyptian I'd probably be very displeased with these results.

[Insula Dei]

Have any of you seen any reliable data on the voting pattern of the Coptic Christians? It would be interesting to see their preferences. I guess you could deduct the info from voting pattern from certain districts, but I am unsure of the exact demographical distribution of Copts on a district level.  

Overwhelmingly Shafik I'd think. Likewise with the Sufi minority, I hear.