Egypt 2012 presidential election

[Mahmoud]

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

Things in Egypt don't quite work this way. Over the internet sources (Facebook, Twitter..etc) you may find that Fotouh or Hamdeen having higher chances. Although, a large portion of the electors actually don't even log onto the internet (almost 60% of Egyptian people are illiterates). And in reality, the most group that work really well to reach almost every hamlet are the MB. So while Morsi's chances don't seem that high over the internet, he is, in reality, one of the strongest candidates.

My guesses are that it will be either Morsi and Moussa or Morsi and Fotouh in the second round.

[Mahmoud]

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

[Mahmoud]

Elections are over, turnout was around 55%. Waiting for the final results.

[Mahmoud]

What time can we expect first results? Whenabouts final results?

First results can be expected tomorrow. Final results will be on Saturday.

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster!

Thanks a lot, it's great to be here, I've learnt quite a lot in the past days about elections process around the world
And where did you learn Arabic?

[Mahmoud]

First results are actually quite mixed, with every TV channel reporting different results, that's why I said to expect first results tomorrow, to get better picture.
Round 2 I guess will be between Morsi and another one, though the result depends on who is the other. If Morsi against Fotouh or Sabahi, then he will be beaten. But if he will be against Shafiq or Moussa, then he has the upper hand.

I'm in Qena, a city in upper Egypt.

أهلا وسهلا يا محمود

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster!

First Arab poster, too.

Heck, if Australia/NZ (duh), South America, Russia, people living in the west of immigrant ancestry, and people posting on vacation to say India or Morocco all do not count... first non-western poster.

Lol, that is a great honor

Thanks a lot, it's great to be here, I've learnt quite a lot in the past days about elections process around the world
And where did you learn Arabic?

أنا طالب في جامعة وارسو وأدرس اللغة العربية هناك

I'm still learning, actually, so please forgive any errors

Outside of MSA, I'll have Egyptian Arabic next year.

Great! I'm sure you will love Egyptian Arabic
And for the record, you had no mistakes up there sir

[Mahmoud]

Up until now the first results from 2,574 poll stations are:
Morsi 1,156,278
Shafiq 716,349
Fotouh 684,834
Sabahi 551,023
Moussa 461,242

Don't take these as indications though, things tend to change, as Shafiq was third and now second, and there are almost 11,000 more poll stations.

[Mahmoud]

I guess it will be between Morsi and Shafiq.
Areas that has been counted include but not limited to Alexandria, Giza, Suhag, Qena, Aswan, Sharqia, Asyout among others. These cities are mixed, you find both rich and poor people, though large portions of poor people don't support/know Sabahi.

[Mahmoud]

Morsi vs. Shafiq?

I...think I might have to support the Islamic Brotherhood.  I can't believe it. 

Mahmoud, you have my sympathy.  Those are terrible options.

Yes, revolutionists and seculars would support Morsi over Shafiq anyday. To have the Muslims Brotherhood is better than having the old regime again, albeit with different faces.
Though lots say they would boycott voting if the run-off was between them two.

[Mahmoud]

Morsi vs. Shafiq?

I...think I might have to support the Islamic Brotherhood.  I can't believe it. 

Mahmoud, you have my sympathy.  Those are terrible options.

Yes, revolutionists and seculars would support Morsi over Shafiq anyday. To have the Muslims Brotherhood is better than having the old regime again, albeit with different faces.
Though lots say they would boycott voting if the run-off was between them two.

Ouch... that's a tricky choice. Lesser of two evils vote for most people then?

So it seems, yes.

[Mahmoud]

Latest results show that:
1- Morsi 4,968,148
2- Shafiq 4,416,909
3- Sabahi 3,290,375
4- Fotouh 3,157,465
5- Moussa 2,132,382

These results are from 11,327 poll stations.

[Mahmoud]

There are some unconfirmed reports that Sabahi might be second, but all official sources say that Shafiq is second.

Nasserism in Egypt is viewed as a good thing, Egyptians love Nasser.

[Mahmoud]

Any word on how Khaled Ali did?

Around 25,285 votes. Not much.

[Mahmoud]

I must say I'm surprised, I had been given the impression that this was almost certainly going to end up between Fotouh and Moussa, clearly I was mistaken.

I knew it was going to be between Mursi and another one, though I didn't hope for the other one to be Shafiq.

[Mahmoud]

http://www.egyptpresident2012.com/index.php

Complete result.

Someone transliterate the also-runs' names for me.

From right to left: First cell is the governorate's name, second is the total number of registered voters in it, third is the turnout for each one.
Then the also-rans' names are as follows from right to left: El-Hariry, Fawzy 'Eissa, Khair Allah, Moussa, Fotouh, Bastaweesy, Hossam, El-'Awa, Shafiq, Sabahi, El-Ash'al, Khaled Ali and Morsi.

The governorates' from top to bottom: Cairo, Giza, Daqahlia, Domiat, Suhag, South Sinai, Red Sea, Kafr El-Sheikh, Qena, Port Said, Alexandria, Aswan, Sharqia, Beheira, Gharbia, Elminia, Qalyobia, Monofia, Asyout, Fayoum, Beni Suef, Isamilia, Luxor, Suez, North Sinai, Matrouh, New Valley.

Last two cells at the bottom right are the total votes for each candidate and their percentage, respectively.

[Mahmoud]

Mahmoud-

I'm wondering if you can give us any insight into what's going to happen with the transfer of power if Morsi does win the runoff?  Does the military fear the Muslim Brotherhood enough that they'll renege on promises to give up power?  Will they be able to keep the elected government weak, and try to control things behind the scenes, like in Pakistan?

Military fears and hates the Muslim Brotherhood, so they would make anything to make Shafiq win. But if Morsi wins, and we do hope so, there might be some conflicts between them, they will indeed transfer the power, but will not be completely co-operative. And I bet they will try to make Morsi and MB in general look bad in the eyes of the people, or at the very least will try to press on the constitution writers to give them special privileges so that the government can't interfere in their work or hold them accountable for anything they might have done, at least to not be brought to justice for what they did during Moubarak's period or the transitional period.

[Mahmoud]

Tomorrow, Monday, is when the final results are coming out.

[Mahmoud]

Final resutls are in, and they're as follows:
Total voters: 23,672,036
Valid votes: 23,256,615

Also-rans' votes are:
El-Hariry - 40,090
Fawzy Eissa - 23,889
Hossam Khair Allah - 22,036
Moussa - 2,588,350
Fotouh - 4,056,239
Bastaweesy - 29,189
Mahmoud Hossam - 23,992
El-'Awa - 235,374
Shafiq - 5,505,327
Sabahi - 4,820,273
El-Ash'al - 12,249
Khaled Ali - 134,056
Mursi - 5,764,952

So it's official, Mursi and Shafiq in the second round.

[Mahmoud]

Mahmoud, who do you think wins ?

Probably Morsi, because the Brotherhood did already very well in the parliamentary elections ?

Looks like a vote between cancer and ebola to me ...

Well, it depends. If the MB can gather other political forces around them, like Fotouh and Sabahi's voters, then Morsi will win. If though they refuse to vote and boycott the second round, then it's a hard guess, with me believing Shafiq would have a slightly better chance.

[Mahmoud]

Danish state TV quote Al-Akhbar for saying that a court decision on june 11. can prevent "ex-Mubarak officials" from participating in the second round. Could give Sabahi a second chance.

Actually such a law was already made by the parliament around a month ago or so, that would have actually prevented Omar Sulaiman and Shafiq from running into elections. But the elections commitee strangely put them back into the race, and now there are marches demanding them to take Shafiq out of the second round, for Sabahi to be in. Well, we just wait and see.

[Mahmoud]

Yes, the majority voted for Shafiq, but no exact numbers.

[Mahmoud]

Well, it's been a while since I posted here. Blame that on the exams

Anyway, the first results show that Mursi is the new Egyptian president with 52.6% lead. That's around 11,973,841 votes, and Shafiq having 10,782,190 votes, or 47.4% of the valid votes.
Final results are coming out on Tuesday Thursday.

[Mahmoud]

It's official now. Morsi is the new president of Arab Republic of Egypt. Congratulations to us
Wishing him the best of luck