Let's jump to early August ...

[Tender Branson]

and let's assume that Mitt Romney has secured enough delegates in the meantime to win the nomination. Mitt Romney has also picked Rob Portman as VP candidate.

But then suddenly, on the way to a campaign event in Colorado, Romney's plane crashes in Kansas. Mitt Romney dies.

Does Portman automatically get the nomination ? Or is the nomination "open" again for all candidates in the 2012 cycle ? Or does Ron Paul automatically win the nomination, assuming he's the only candidate that's still officially in there without ending or suspending his campaign ? Can some outside candidate like Sarah Palin win the nomination ?

Who knows more ?

[Mr. Morden]

Of course Portman wouldn't automatically become the nominee since Romney naming him as his running mate has no official meaning.  All that means is that he's asked his delegates to vote for the nomination of Portman as VP.  But that nomination vote doesn't happen until the convention.

I presume that all of the uncommitted and unpledged delegates would still be able to vote for whoever they want, and any delegates awarded to Gingrich or Santorum or whoever else would be free to vote for whoever they want *if* Gingrich or Santorum has released their delegates by that point.

Presumably, the delegates pledged to Romney would not be bound to vote for his nomination anymore if he's dead.  I guess anyone, whether they ran this year or not, would be fair game for winning the nomination.

Btw, Intrade gives Huckabee a 0.4% chance of winning the nomination, while Jeb Bush is given a 0.3% chance.  That puts them ahead of everyone but Romney and Paul.

[SteveRogers]

If it happens in early August before the convention, then it's anybody's game, although whoever Romney had picked as his running mate would presumably be a contender. Romney delegates would be free to vote for whoever. I expect Newt and Santorum would jump back in the race for sure. Sarah Palin has already said she'd be willing to step forward if an open convention needed a compromise candidate (lol). Theoretically anybody could jump in at this point. It would be pure chaos. This is probably also the only scenario in which Ron Paul would have even a remote chance of winning the nomination.

If something were to happen to Romney after the convention and his nomination, it would be the Republican National Committee members and not the convention delegates who would meet to select a replacement nominee. The nomination contest would still be open, but the process would be more orderly and succinct.

[Mr. Morden]

Do the rules that bind convention delegates to a particular candidate on the first ballot actually envision a scenario in which the candidate dies before the vote, or would most of the Romney delegates technically be bound to vote for him on the first ballot even if he's dead?

Also, presumably the rules are the same on the Democratic side?  If something happens to Obama before the convention, then the delegates can vote for whoever they want, but if it's afterwards, then the DNC picks the replacement?

And at what stage would it no longer be the DNC or RNC picking the replacement, but rather the individual electors?  Does that only come into play if something happens to the candidate after the election but before the electors meet?

[pbrower2a]

The assassination of Robert Kennedy in 1968 answered that question for Democrats: delegates for a deceased candidate are then released.

Such would be an incalculable disaster for the Party whose most likely nominee is no more. That Party all of a sudden has a candidate usually ill-vetted to satisfy the factions within the Party and has inadequate time in which to develop a strong campaign. Hubert Humphrey was by all accounts a fine person who would have been a good President -- but he was unable to keep the segregationist wing of the Democratic party from seceding.

Richard Nixon may have been the craftiest Presidential nominee that we ever had, so he might have won anyway. I can't be sure that Robert Kennedy would have stopped the Wallace secession. But just figure that Kennedy might have done better in enough states to cut into some Nixon majorities that resulted from people wasting votes by choosing Wallace in states that Wallace did not win. Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin were close enough to be decided by the Wallace vote; take away half the Wallace vote in Florida and Kentucky, and the Democrat wins.

That said, Richard Nixon ran as visceral a campaign as anyone ever did and well hid the political demons that would eventually bring him down.   

[Grumpier Than Thou]

That'd be a really...strange...occurance, but I think Morden explained it well enough.