How will 2012 compare to 2008 based on income groups?

[Progressive Realist]

Here's 2008.



As you can see, Obama basically won the lowest-income groups up to $50k in income. McCain won voters with incomes of between $50k and $200k, but Obama actually won voters with incomes of $200k or above.

[greenforest32]

Interesting. How far back do we have data on this demographic for Presidential elections?

[Lloyd Bentsen's Ghost]

A lot of people have been pointing out how "bimodal" Obama's support is - he does well at both extreme ends of the income spectrum and as you get towards the middle it starts to peter out.

My guess is he narrowly holds the >$200K people - the recession has been over for them for a while and most of them are smart enough to know Obama isn't going to pull a Castro and expropriate their assets like the droolers on talk radio think he will.

The very poor will vote Democratic like usual, if they vote.

The votes in the middle will be determined by race, religious affiliation and geographic location.

[Nichlemn]

Higher income should trend Romney. His identity is more identifiably "rich", Obama seems like he'll campaign on more of an economically populist platform this time, and McCain's pick of Palin may have scared rich voters who might like lower taxes but put a strong emphasis on competence.

[Progressive Realist]

Interesting thoughts.

Though higher educated (like graduate degree) Americans are roughly 50/50 overall in terms of partisan preference, and that is often correlated with higher income,  there is still considerable correlation to higher income people voting Republican.

If you compare two people of the same educational background, but Person A has a higher income than Person B, then Person A is more likely to vote Republican than Person B.