Of the three GOP factions, which will be the first to leave?

[Indy Prez]

Defense = Blue
Moral = Yellow
Fiscal = Green
All = Red (untraditional unlike daveleip, I know)
DEMOCRATIC NO-GO = Grey

The varying hues of colour represent the corresponding degree of influence the faction holds in that state.
E.g. In the case of a DARK red state like Minnesota, all factions are of essentially equal importance and require greater PAC funding to help swing their traditionally Democratic asses.



Use maps to represent future election matchups with your chosen faction dropped from the party. And to discuss would be a plus!

[NHI]

The moral and defense. I see The Republican party slowly abandoning the social issues. The defense faction will still exist, but will become less of a focus within the party.

[Diabolical Minds Think Alike]

Moral and defense, yeah. More likely moral.

[Indy Prez]

Fiscal for me.

The Dems have already proven themselves to be the more fiscally conservative party since 1992, and with the Democratic and Republican rises of Andrew Cuomo and Pat Toomey, respectively, I think the trends show this to be true.

Moral is stronger than ever and was the last faction to be brought aboard (1980), after Neocons (1968) and libertarians(1920).

[Diabolical Minds Think Alike]

The Dems have already proven themselves to be the more fiscally conservative party since 1992

[Indy Prez]

Certainly, at the national level in terms of Presidencies: Carter, Clinton, Obama didn't cut taxes aggressively and we law the paying off of deficits under the former two.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Voted fiscal by accident. Would've voted moral, but neocons will lose influence too.

[Svensson]

Moral, with defense close behind on a steady decline. Frankly, I can't see the GOP ever abandoning fiscal conservatism - essentially their single, unchanging standard over the course of the last five or so political eras of American history.

[Jerseyrules]

Despite my tepid support for mitt, I'm volunteering for the Ron Paul campaign, hoping that a last stand by-the-skin-of-his-balls victory in CA makes RP scare mitt enough to ensure

1. Moral crap goes bye-bye (I'm pro-life, but I'm not a maniac.  Leave it to the states - this will likely be (and might already be) the belief of most GOP voters in ten years)
2. He stays true to fiscal conservatism
3. He becomes fully aware that he can't afford to lose the libertarian wing of the party.  Without it he loses or wins narrowly; with even half the youth and independent/Dem votes RP brings to the table, it's a Mittslide

The libertarian faction of the GOP is a growing faction of the GOP Mitt can't afford to lose.

[Indy Prez]

Yes, but if it's a Mitt Romney-Rand Paul ticket come November, they say goodbye to all the more pickupable women and conservative catholic voters they could pick up with a Martinez/Bachmann/Jindal VP slot and a Terri Schiavo-ey issue plank. And they've been after those voters since 2000. Logically, the Moral majority is less likely to run to a party with abortion and amnesty as it's base than a GOP, hence their importance and the greater likelihood of a Romney-Jindal ticket. Austerity Democrats like Andy Cuomo, Tim kaine, Hillary Clinton and even Barry (as we will discover during his 2nd term) are the money-raising dominant force in the UnDemocratic Party. The working class has been trending Republican for decades (West Virginia). trends, man. that's the key word.

Cuomo DLC =Future home of fiscal conservaticrats
Pat Toomer GOP = tuk er jobs, no taxes, whats default mean spendublican

No way will the GOP abandom it's religiounut plank in favour of Gary Johnson's libertarian brand, though you guys will become a MAJOR thrid party come the next election taking states from the dems (NH, NV) but Hispanics will become Republican with the rise of George P Bush, Brian Sandoval and Susana  Martinez.

[NHI]

Yes, but if it's a Mitt Romney-Rand Paul ticket come November, they say goodbye to all the more pickupable women and conservative catholic voters they could pick up with a Martinez/Bachmann/Jindal VP slot and a Terri Schiavo-ey issue plank. And they've been after those voters since 2000. Logically, the Moral majority is less likely to run to a party with abortion and amnesty as it's base than a GOP, hence their importance and the greater likelihood of a Romney-Jindal ticket. Austerity Democrats like Andy Cuomo, Tim kaine, Hillary Clinton and even Barry (as we will discover during his 2nd term) are the money-raising dominant force in the UnDemocratic Party. The working class has been trending Republican for decades (West Virginia). trends, man. that's the key word.

Cuomo DLC =Future home of fiscal conservaticrats
Pat Toomer GOP = tuk er jobs, no taxes, whats default mean spendublican

No way will the GOP abandom it's religiounut plank in favour of Gary Johnson's libertarian brand, though you guys will become a MAJOR thrid party come the next election taking states from the dems (NH, NV) but Hispanics will become Republican with the rise of George P Bush, Brian Sandoval and Susana  Martinez.

I agree with your points, though I don't see any major third party coming to light.

[Jerseyrules]

No way will the GOP abandom it's religiounut plank in favour of Gary Johnson's libertarian brand, though you guys will become a MAJOR thrid party come the next election taking states from the dems (NH, NV) but Hispanics will become Republican with the rise of George P Bush, Brian Sandoval and Susana  Martinez.

Help us Rand Paul.  You're our only hope

In all seriousness, I think libertarians can change this nation the most if we get the GOP to become libertarian, and overhaul the party from the inside-out.  Rand Paul 2020, but I would say that a bid by Jesse Ventura this year would be interesting to say the least.  Not to highjack the thread, but what does everyone think?  Would a 2012 indy bid by the Body help or hurt the libertarian movement?  Turnout?

[InsaneTrollLogic]

The first the Tea Baggers seemed most eager to throw under the bus were the hawks....but I guess it depends on the next 10 years, whether we invade Iran and how successful we are in winning and concluding that war. ....but they aren't going to become Democrats. I would say those red states, are going to be hard to GOPers to hang on to as they are forced to run radical candidates to please a diverse party in moderate states.


Basically, you have the Beehive Belt and the Bible Belt, the energy and rural states and old the rust belt...where every urbanized or state or every very small state overrun by people from urbanized states won't vote for anyone with an (R) next to their name.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

The neocons will leave first. As religious conservatives will rediscover their noninterventionist roots. Fiscal cons will be infused by libertarians leaving neocons nowhere to go but make their own party.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

The neocons will leave first. As religious conservatives will rediscover their noninterventionist roots. Fiscal cons will be infused by libertarians leaving neocons nowhere to go but make their own party.

I'll go with this...but no one is starting a new party without one of the major parties being totally locked out of power for three elections in a row...say Romney sweeps with large coatails in 2012 and the Dems can't make any inroads back into congress or the White House by 2020...then, the various elements of the party might try to form a third party on a different "Antirepublican" ideology that makes up a better opposition. On the other hand if Romney loses by enough and the Democrats are able to retake the house by 2014 or 2016 and Romney's succesor still loses and Democrats get reelected in 2018, the Republican Party's existence may be questioned.

The only real exception to this rule was in the 30s and 60s, but that simply was because there were enough DINOs to give Minority Republicans a chance to influence policy and before that when the Democrats were unpopular, they still had Monolithic control over the South and the big cities to continue to justify their existence. Neither party has that much monolithic support (70%+)  and both parties are pretty consistent.

[Indy Prez]

Nice maps, Steve.

I agree with the latter theorem you posited. We are seeing the fiscal wing splinter in this election with Gary Johnson's libertarian bid, Romney's declaration of support for pro-life candidates would preclude the nomination of any of the realistic Defense candidates for the VP nomination (the GOP faction Obama will be most likely to garner votes from) and the religious wing will likely sit on their hands even if he does pick Bobby Jindal, Brian Sandoval or another Paliniser, out of hopelessness or distrust. I see no way Romney cannot get clobbered in this election.

Cuomo-Warren 2016

[GLPman]

The moral. Whether social conservatives like it or not, they're part of a slowly dying breed. I expect the GOP of the next few decades to adopt a more liberalized social agenda (although still much to the right of the Dems), in addition to an increased focus on fiscal conservatism.

[Indy Prez]

There will always be a paleoconservative movement in the United States. By 2040, America will undoubtedly have elected a female President, and an overwhelming majority will be more supportive of Americans gay rights than not. But Terri Schiavo will not go away (at least not in spirit); and euthanasia, abortion and capital punishment will remain polarizing issues.

It's all very relative to the times.