Japan 2012

[jaichind]

It is not even that I am opposed to the Hashimoto's ideas.  Some of them I think are quite good, mostly those about deregulation.  My view is more about how he came to these ideas.  His ideas are mostly self-serving or the lastest political fads.  His ideas on direct election of PM solves nothing and merely makes it easier for him to be PM given his own personal popularity (for now) and his relative weakness in organization is an example of the former. His flip flops on nuclear power is an example of the latter.

One thing I failed to talk about is that 3 members of Your Party defected to Hashimoto Party.  This might be a sign that Your Party might be falling apart.  Oh well.  Your Party I feel have a real vision unlike Hashimoto.  One should also note that most MP defectors to the Hashimoto Party are on the PR list.  This confirms my view that Hashimoto Party is viewed as an outfit that will do will in PR but might lack the nationwide organization to do well in FPTP seats.

If LDP-Komeito and Hashimoto Party comes to power I think that might be the beginning of the end for Hashimoto.  He can on longer play this know-it-all critic and take no responsiblity on what goes wrong.  His party's candidates will mostly be new and unvetted.  Once they are elected there will be all sorts of scandals of a personal and financial nature will come out and the media will be eager to expose them.  He who lives by media might end up dying by media.  In the meantime DPJ will still play a key role in the upper house to block LDP-Komeito and Hashimoto Party and as a result nothing will get done.

[RogueBeaver]

Nathan or jaichind, can you explain the misogyny thing for those of us who don't usually follow Japanese politics?

[jaichind]

Shintaro Ishihara, 4 term and popular governor of Tokyo once said: "old women who live after they have lost their reproductive function are useless and are committing a sin."
Ishihara Senior used to be in LDP and his son is on the verge of becoming the head of the LDP.  Ishihara Senior also is the godfather behind the radical right wing Sunrise Party.  He created but did not join the Sunrise Pary, but controls it from behind the scenes which fits him fine as he can avioid association with mistakes or gaffes of the party but is de facto head of the party. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Nathan or jaichind, can you explain the misogyny thing for those of us who don't usually follow Japanese politics?

What jaichind mentioned is among the more recent examples (incidentally, when he was confronted about it he doubled down and started talking about old women as some sort of tyrannical elite; I should point out he is in fact married to a presumably relatively old woman and has several grown sons, one of whom is a much more moderate LDP bigwig). Much earlier in his life he was a fairly well-regarded novelist (he moved in some of the same circles as Mishima Yukio if that rings any bells) and the portrayal of women there is, uh, questionable, although not as much as it could be. He also says that the Rape of Nanking is a fiction, but that's less uncommon on the Japanese right than we might think or hope it would be.

He's also said about what you might expect on the subjects of homosexuality and countries other than Japan, doesn't seem to be of the opinion that manga counts as 'speech' (as in 'freedom of') for some reason, and justified destroying the closest satoyama to Tokyo, a decision that I imagine could have been justified in any number of much more reasonable ways, in terms reminiscent of James G. Watt. The phrase 'devil mountain that eats children' was used.

[RogueBeaver]

OK... that guy's filed under "batshoot RL troll" in my book.

[jaichind]

Speaking of Mishima Yukio, yes, Shintaro Ishihara was very much associated with Mishima Yukio.  Of couse one thing that is interesting about this relationship is that it has become a well known fact that Mishima Yukio is almost certainly gay.   And Ishihara is well known for his anti-homosexual views.  This is another example where he does not seem to square his believes with his associates.  
Some of his extremist views I think also has an element of opportunism.  He is famous for his anti-US and Anti-PRC views (more so anti-PRC.)  In 2005 he advocated boycotting the 2008 Beijing Olympics.  But in 2007-2008 when he was looking to get support for Tokyo to host the 2016 olympics, he toned down his anti-PRC views to the degree that he was invited to the 2008 Beijing Olympics and even praised the 2008 Olympics in terms of the opening ceremony and how it was organized.  Of course once the Tokyo bid fell through he went back to to his more traditional anti-PRC views.  What angers me at a personal level is that in international politics he is anti-PRC based on anti-Communism (plus theories he has that the PRC will invade and take over Japan in 20 years)  and as a result is very much pro-ROC, on paper.  But seems to only favor those ROC politicans that espose Taiwan Indpendence and reject the Chinese identity which exposes the fact his views are really anti-Chinese identity.  And at the same time he hurls insults to the Chinese people overall and Chinese in Japan, even those from Taiwan Province.  I have no problem with anti-Chinese identity but I want him to just come out and say it and not use various invasion theories or anti-communism as a cover.  
As for the Rape of Nanking denial stuff, it is interesting, as a Chinese nationalist I really do not think this is a big deal.  It could be my time in USA has influenced myself with free speech concepts but I feel that if Japan wants it textbooks to avoid or deny these events, it should be free to do so.  It is their call.  In keeping such facts from their own population the only loser here is Japan.  The Chinese committed atrocities just has bad to each other during the KMT-CCP civil wars before and after the Japanese invasion which are often missing from Chinese textbooks on both the Mainland and Taiwan regions.  I personally much rather focused on getting more accurate historical facts in Chinese textbooks about ourselves than harrass the Japanese over the Rape of Nanjing and other Japanese misdeeds.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Speaking of Mishima Yukio, yes, Shintaro Ishihara was very much associated with Mishima Yukio.  Of couse one thing that is interesting about this relationship is that it has become a well known fact that Mishima Yukio is almost certainly gay.   And Ishihara is well known for his anti-homosexual views.  This is another example where he does not seem to square his believes with his associates.  

Oh of course. Ishihara knows his niche and fills it to perfection, and it's kind of an awful niche in my opinion, but I don't think he's as crazy as the sum total of the various crap he's said over the years might indicate. Whether that makes him better or worse is a judgment call, obviously.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Current party standings as far as I understand them:

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES (241 needed for majority)

DPJ+: 246 (245 DPJ plus Speaker)
LDP+: 119 (118 LDP plus Vice-Speaker)
Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life/Kizuna: 47 (OIAL 37, Kizuna 9, Independent 1)
New Komeito: 21
JCP: 9
SDP: 6
Governor Misogyny and the Hashists: 5 (Hashists 3, Governor Misogyny 2)
YP: 5
Reform Group of Independents: 4 (Three Independents and a Yokokume Katsuhito)
Tax Cuts Japan/Peace: 4 (Tax Cuts Japan 3, Independent who presumably represents Peace 1)
People's New Party and Group of Independents: 3 (PNP 2, Independent 1)
New Party Daichi--True Democrats: 3
New Party Nippon: 1
Independents who aren't among the groups above: 5

HOUSE OF COUNCILLORS (122 needed for majority)

DPJ+: 88 (87 DPJ plus Speaker)
LDP+: 85 (84 LDP plus Vice-Speaker)
New Komeito: 19
Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life: 12
YP: 8
Governor Misogyny and the Hashists: 7 (Hashists 4, Governor Misogyny 3)
JCP: 6
SDP: 4
Green Wind (I have no idea what this is but it sounds superficially cool): 4
PNP: 3
New Renaissance Party: 2
New Party Daichi--True Democrats: 2
Okinawa Social Mass Party (what?): 1
Independent: 1

Something like this, anyway.

[jaichind]

I believe Green Wind is a party made up of DPJ and PNP defectors that was created 2 months ago.  The DPJ defectors are as a result of the Noda's push to double consumption tax.
Thinking about this, I think the LDP is better off having the Lower House election next year and the DPJ is better off having the Lower House election this year, which is opposite of what members of each party has indicated. 
The reasoning is the following:  It is very easy to create a negative coalition in the upper house but hard to create a positive coalition in support of a government.  In case of a LDP+New Komeito+Hashimoto Pary government, in the upper house we would LDP+New Komeito+Hashimoto Pary=108.  Throw in Sunrise Party and it would be 111 which would be 11 seats away from a majority.  LDP has always claimed that they can get defectors from other parties to join to form a majority in the upper house to avoid a deadlocked government if they come to power.  But what will be incentives for opposition party members to do this?  It would be to improve their election prospects in the 2013 upper house elections.   But if the LDP+New Komeito plus Hashimoto Party wins a majority as expected in a lower house 2012 election, the 2013 upper house elections is still many months away, plenty of time for this new govnerment to lose the good will it won in the 2012 election.  Knowing this there will be little incentive for upper house opposition MPs to join this block.  If the lower house election takes place in 2013, perhaps at the same time as upper house election, the LDP+New Komeito would do well in both and get the majority it needs with the Hashimoto Party in both chambers. 
So net effect of this, it seems to me, is that LDP should want election as late as possible and DPJ as early as possible.

[後援会]

People tend to overestimate well...how important Shintaro Ishihara is. He makes a lot of nasty statements but he actually does very little governing. He's more of a public celebrity than an actual politician - since its Inose Naoki who basically does all the actual governing that Ishihara's position would suggest one would do.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

People tend to overestimate well...how important Shintaro Ishihara is. He makes a lot of nasty statements but he actually does very little governing. He's more of a public celebrity than an actual politician - since its Inose Naoki who basically does all the actual governing that Ishihara's position would suggest one would do.

I see. Well, that takes away from my 'he must be a competent administrator or something' theory for why the people of Tokyo keep electing him.

(I know the actual reasons, of course, it's just that a lot of them are a bit painful to contemplate for too long.)

[The Mikado]

It's kind of hilarious that Ishihara, Hashimoto, and Ozawa all have their own terrible personality cult parties.

[jaichind]

People tend to overestimate well...how important Shintaro Ishihara is. He makes a lot of nasty statements but he actually does very little governing. He's more of a public celebrity than an actual politician - since its Inose Naoki who basically does all the actual governing that Ishihara's position would suggest one would do.

That is quite interesting.  I did not know that.  I always had a certain level of respect for Ishihara Senior for his ablity to govern Tokyo.  I always thought that his reelections were mostly based on his technical compotence.  I always thought of him as a Narenda Modi (CM of Indian state of Gujarat) who is a horrible record on communal harmony but has a done a good job as a technical adaministrator and responsible for all sorts of progress in Gujuarat, communal riots notwithstanding.

[jaichind]

It's kind of hilarious that Ishihara, Hashimoto, and Ozawa all have their own terrible personality cult parties.

Of the three I still like Ozawa the most.  I think he has good vision and he is very good at recruiting and building up good politicans that can win elections. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

People tend to overestimate well...how important Shintaro Ishihara is. He makes a lot of nasty statements but he actually does very little governing. He's more of a public celebrity than an actual politician - since its Inose Naoki who basically does all the actual governing that Ishihara's position would suggest one would do.

That is quite interesting.  I did not know that.  I always had a certain level of respect for Ishihara Senior for his ablity to govern Tokyo.  I always thought that his reelections were mostly based on his technical compotence.  I always thought of him as a Narenda Modi (CM of Indian state of Gujarat) who is a horrible record on communal harmony but has a done a good job as a technical adaministrator and responsible for all sorts of progress in Gujuarat, communal riots notwithstanding.

This is what I thought too. Or, at least, what I wanted to think.

[jaichind]

Looking at all the serious LDP candidates for LDP leadership,  Ishihara junior is the most moderate of all of them, despite his father's more radical views.  This is funny but one can actually come up with the following campaign solgan and be true:

"For a more moderate foreign policy, vote  Ishihara"

[jaichind]

Wow.  Well, I kind of expected something like this.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Japan’s Noda Hints at Reviewing Pledge for Elections, Asahi Says

     Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko
Noda hinted at reviewing a pledge made to the main opposition
party to dissolve parliament and hold elections “soon,” Asahi
says, citing remarks made by Noda yday on a TBS TV program.
• Noda says conditions have changed; pledge to hold vote was made during talks for opposition parties to stand down on threat of no-confidence and censure motions: Asahi
• Noda suggests holding talks with two main opposition parties again after vote to elect leaders of Noda’s Democratic Party and main opposition Liberal Democratic Party: Asahi
• NOTE: Opposition-dominated upper house passed censure motion against Noda last month

[後援会]

People tend to overestimate well...how important Shintaro Ishihara is. He makes a lot of nasty statements but he actually does very little governing. He's more of a public celebrity than an actual politician - since its Inose Naoki who basically does all the actual governing that Ishihara's position would suggest one would do.

That is quite interesting.  I did not know that.  I always had a certain level of respect for Ishihara Senior for his ablity to govern Tokyo.  I always thought that his reelections were mostly based on his technical compotence.  I always thought of him as a Narenda Modi (CM of Indian state of Gujarat) who is a horrible record on communal harmony but has a done a good job as a technical adaministrator and responsible for all sorts of progress in Gujuarat, communal riots notwithstanding.

This is what I thought too. Or, at least, what I wanted to think.

Well, not delegating important tasks to terrible incompetent people is a sometimes rare skill in of itself. Very unfortunately.

The DPJ's reaction to the Senkaku incident baffles me. Consider the upcoming elections and the assets both powers have on the ground, there is very little downside to taking the most hawkish position imaginable. Japan clearly holds most of the cards in this dispute. And worst comes to worst, there's a rally around the flag effect. It's probably old JSPer's holding the DPJ back.

Of the three I still like Ozawa the most.  I think he has good vision and he is very good at recruiting and building up good politicans that can win elections.

Ozawa has a vision? Is this same Ozawa we're talking about here? The same Ozawa that has jumped from hard-right to hard-left and then to whatever the hell he's doing now.

That being said, if the election were held today, I think I'd be backing Hashimoto. A LDP-Komeito-Hashimoto coalition seems like the possible outcome to me now. I have long since lost faith in the DPJ to actually function no matter the best intentions of some - the Senkaku affair only be one incident in a long string, and I'm not too sure if handing back to the LDP total power would be a good idea And strangely enough, the more I read about Hashimoto, the more I like him.

[jaichind]

Yeah.  I hear you.  I guess when I said I felt Ozawa has good vision I was more thinking about his vision of a 2 party system that alternate in power as a route to better policy. 

As for DiaoYuTai/Senkaku incident, I might be overestimating the PRC, but I feel that LDP or DPJ, once in power will have a fairly narrow policy choice on this.  PRC's share of Japanese exports has doubled in the last ten years to 20% with the USA buying 15%.  In a real conflict neither economy benifits but the damage to Japan will be greater.  The PRC has more bargaining chips with Japan than ever before.  I feel that a more dovish policy approach is the only choice left to Japan for the party in power.

Of course I feel the PRC response to this crisis is quite stupid as well.  Since in DiaoYuTai is part of Yilan County of Taiwan Province, the PRC should really let the ROC represent Chinese interests on this with silent support from PRC.

Well, not delegating important tasks to terrible incompetent people is a sometimes rare skill in of itself. Very unfortunately.

The DPJ's reaction to the Senkaku incident baffles me. Consider the upcoming elections and the assets both powers have on the ground, there is very little downside to taking the most hawkish position imaginable. Japan clearly holds most of the cards in this dispute. And worst comes to worst, there's a rally around the flag effect. It's probably old JSPer's holding the DPJ back.

Ozawa has a vision? Is this same Ozawa we're talking about here? The same Ozawa that has jumped from hard-right to hard-left and then to whatever the hell he's doing now.

That being said, if the election were held today, I think I'd be backing Hashimoto. A LDP-Komeito-Hashimoto coalition seems like the possible outcome to me now. I have long since lost faith in the DPJ to actually function no matter the best intentions of some - the Senkaku affair only be one incident in a long string, and I'm not too sure if handing back to the LDP total power would be a good idea And strangely enough, the more I read about Hashimoto, the more I like him.

[jaichind]

See

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120918002929.htm

On PR list the current polling is LDP 31, Hashimoto Party 16, and DPJ 14. If we assume that New Komeito itself should be good for 10% on the PR vote, New Komeito voters do vote for LDP in the FPTP seat, and this poll is indicative of how the FPTP votes would go, then I pretty much feel that LDP-New Komeito will capture a majority on its own given the even split between Hashimoto and DPJ of the anti-LDP vote.

[Insula Dei]

Fun fact: I know this guy who was almost called Yukio by his parents as a nod to Mishima. The days of Yugi-oh would have been dark ones, he admits.

More importantly, is it very insensitive to just write Yukio Mishima?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Fun fact: I know this guy who was almost called Yukio by his parents as a nod to Mishima. The days of Yugi-oh would have been dark ones, he admits.

See, I recognize that Mishima is a great author, but he's...not...someone I would name someone after...

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I don't think so. For people in the West who aren't Asian studies academics I've always had the perception that Japanese name order (unlike, for instance, Chinese) is more a stylistic matter than anything else.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Noda has won reelection as party leader. Now on to the LDP election--this week, right?

[後援会]

Fun fact: I know this guy who was almost called Yukio by his parents as a nod to Mishima. The days of Yugi-oh would have been dark ones, he admits.

See, I recognize that Mishima is a great author, but he's...not...someone I would name someone after...

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I don't think so. For people in the West who aren't Asian studies academics I've always had the perception that Japanese name order (unlike, for instance, Chinese) is more a stylistic matter than anything else.

It's also a pen name. And uh, naming someone after a pen name is just really going into uncharted, weird waters.

Also, I didn't get the yukio/yugioh joke at first because "huh? the first syllables are the same and the second is only hardened, but there's four in yugioh...wait a second herree"

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

An apparently quite ill Machimura Nobutaka is determined to stay in the offing for LDP leader. I don't know much about Machimura at all, but I'd consider this admirable.