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koenkai
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« Reply #50 on: August 25, 2012, 04:01:14 am »
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Consumption tax hike is never happening. Supposedly, the hikes only kick in when Japan registers consistent 2% GDP growth for an entire fiscal year.

That is never ever going to happen. Hah. Hah. Hah.

Regardless, I'm excited about these new elections. Even though the polling is scary, I don't think there's anything to worry about. The DPJ and LDP should still take the bulk of the votes (being the only serious parties running people everywhere), with YP taking a respectable third (at least running candidates everywhere in the Kanto plains). Of course, I'll be rooting for my DPJ homeboy, but I'm fine with all three of these parties.

Also, I haven't met anyone who actually thinks Hashimoto will do anything in the snap election. If he really wants a national audience, he'll wait for the next upper-house election.

Any result that keeps the green/anti-restart nutjobs out of power is okay with me and luckily, that seems like every conceivable result.
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« Reply #51 on: August 25, 2012, 08:28:09 am »
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Any result that keeps the green/anti-restart nutjobs out of power is okay with me and luckily, that seems like every conceivable result.

I feel the same way about the socially far-right/anti-Article 9 nutjobs, so I share most of your opinion on this.

Increasingly I think that Japan needs to start thinking seriously about what its post-demographic-apocalypse self might look like. There will be suffering at the level of the postwar for at least a few years at that point but I think there are, to borrow a phrase from Herman Kahn, several tragic but distinguishable post-crash environments.

I'll be rooting for Noda despite my disapprobation for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, both because somebody who's actually from Japan whose opinions I trust and respect likes him a lot and because his general policy program is to my mind better than Tanigaki's in most areas.
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« Reply #52 on: August 25, 2012, 11:35:32 am »
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I don't think Japanese demographics are as bad as everyone says.

I mean, they're bad, but they're not outside of the Asian norm. The birth rate has even recovered to 1.4, which makes Japan the best nation in East Asia (compare to .89 for Taiwan, 1.18 for Mainland China, and 1.21 for South Korea).

Plus, debt might become an issue, but I don't think MoF is seriously concerned. They've been trying to inflate the yen for decades (enyasu, whoooo), so there's not a huge rush towards austerity yet.

I actually oppose Article 9 and all, but I'm fairly confident in our ability to ignore it if/when convenient (like the American commerce clause!), so it's not a huge issue.

If I could vote, I'd probably vote for YP on the proportional rep. ballot and for my (former) local DPJ man, largely because I really like him.
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« Reply #53 on: August 25, 2012, 12:09:40 pm »
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I don't think Japanese demographics are as bad as everyone says.

I mean, they're bad, but they're not outside of the Asian norm. The birth rate has even recovered to 1.4, which makes Japan the best nation in East Asia (compare to .89 for Taiwan, 1.18 for Mainland China, and 1.21 for South Korea).

The birthrate has recovered somewhat? Oh, thank you, knowing that is helpful to my perspective on Japan and its future (having an informed perspective on such is important for me, since I'm an academic East Asianist, albeit one with an early-modern focus).

Quote
I actually oppose Article 9 and all, but I'm fairly confident in our ability to ignore it if/when convenient (like the American commerce clause!), so it's not a huge issue.

I support it on pacifist principle, but you're right, it's more just a nice sentiment to have in a Constitution than something that has a huge impact on relevant types of policy.

Quote
If I could vote, I'd probably vote for YP on the proportional rep. ballot and for my (former) local DPJ man, largely because I really like him.

Probably a straight DPJ vote for me if I were Japanese, unless there was a moderate, non-flaky JCP or SDP candidate in the offing or something.
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« Reply #54 on: August 25, 2012, 12:16:55 pm »
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There is no such thing as a moderate JCP member. The JCP understands why the JSP collapsed. They are probably the most ideologically homogenous political organization in all of East Asia. Which is why their true believers show up to vote for them in every single election even though they have no chance of winning.

Also, party isn't as important in non-JCP Japan as it is in say, the West. Who the local representative actually /is/ is probably far more important than their party. After all, the DPJ is filled with former JSPers /and/ former LDPers, very few who have changed their basic political orientation.

That being said, my homeboy is wonderful.
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« Reply #55 on: August 25, 2012, 01:41:13 pm »
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That being said, my homeboy is wonderful.

Who is he and what's he like?

Aforementioned person I trust's district member is apparently one Hosoda Hiroyuki from the LDP.
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« Reply #56 on: August 25, 2012, 03:12:37 pm »
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See

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVfxZ8ojC3Q&feature=my_liked_videos&list=LLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw

I think what Taro Kono says makes a lot of sense.  It matches a lot of what Your Party asserts and frankly a lot of what USA Republicans/Libertarians stands for.
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« Reply #57 on: August 25, 2012, 03:24:58 pm »
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News below came out a couple of days ago.  If the election were held now I would say
that LDP would get around 200 seats, DPJ 100 seats, and the rest spread out across all
kind of parties like Your Party, Sunrise, New Komeito, SDP, JCP, Ozawa's new outfit, various
postal reform rebel parties from 2005, and of course Hashimoto's outfit.  I dare say that if
Hash**tmoto does well and is able to get a pre-election coalition togeather of various non-LDP
non-DPJ parties, it could really hurt DPJ ine the FPTP seats and hand LDP-Komeito a majority
where as where things stands now I feel LDP-Komeito will not get a majority.  Either way I
cannot see a situtation where DPJ does well.  Noda I feel might have done the right thing
from a fiscal point of view but is really bad politically for him and his party.


   Tokyo (DPA) -- Japan's unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda
has reportedly suggested to the main opposition party that he is
planning to put back the next election to November, but public
patience is wearing thin, analysts said.
   "Noda is trying to postpone an election date, but public
discontent has come to a head and Japanese people are urging him
to hold an election now," Minoru Morita, a political analyst,
said.
   According to polls, Noda's ruling Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) would take a drubbing in the next election. A series of
recent territorial disputes with neighbouring countries has
angered many Japanese and made Noda look weak.
   The beleaguered premier also infuriated the growing number of
anti-nuclear voters by approving the restart of two reactors on
the Sea of Japan coast, the first reactivation after last year's
nuclear disaster, despite fierce public opposition and experts'
warning of fault lines under the complex.
   The public also showed signs of feeling betrayed after the DPJ
decided to double sales tax to 10 per cent by 2015, despite an
election campaign pledge not to.
   The campaign earned the DPJ a landslide victory in 2009,
ending more than a half-century of almost uninterrupted rule by
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
   The tax-hike legislation is particularly unpopular as many
Japanese do not feel the economy is recovering. More than 50
lawmakers also left the DPJ in protest against the increase.
   On August 8, Noda and the two main opposition parties - the
LDP and the New Komeito - struck a deal to pass the tax-hike
legislation in exchange for a promise to dissolve the lower house
for an election "sometime soon," the premier told reporters at
the time.
   But he told LDP leader Sadakazu Tanigaki the same day that the
election would be on November 4 or 11, Kyodo News agency reported
Thursday, citing an unnamed LDP lawmaker.
   The LDP rejected those dates, and urged Noda to dissolve the
lower house within the current parliamentary session, which ends
September 8, the source told Kyodo.
   The LDP and the New Komeito, which control the upper house,
are threatening to issue a censure motion against Noda, for
passing legislation without the required participation of all
lawmakers. Such a motion would put considerable pressure on the
premier to step down.
   But analysts said the opposition may have overestimated its
gains from the government's unpopularity, as many Japanese have
been disenchanted with all existing parties over the current
economic situation and nuclear power policy.
   Many lawmakers and the mainstream media failed to grasp this
aspect of public sentiment, Morita said. "They have been out of
touch with the public as they are obsessed with politics in
Tokyo," Morita said.
   Whenever the election ends up being held, it is, therefore,
likely that no party may gain an effective majority.
   So more political confusion is expected under a fragile
coalition government, while the nation continues to struggle with
a flagging economy and deteriorating relations with China and
South Korea. dpa tk cds Author: Takehiko Kambayashi
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« Reply #58 on: August 25, 2012, 05:00:49 pm »
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I don't see why everyone thinks Hashimoto is going to have "an outfit". I simply cannot see him building a national party, or even a regional party (in Kansai) in a matter of weeks. Plus, third parties never break in during general elections. If he's smart, he's going to wait until the next upper house election and pull what YP did.

Also, I don't think the LDP is going to do that well. The problem with the LDP is that very few people actually like it. I could see them with a plurality of 160-170 or so, but 200 is a little difficult.

The member of the district I once lived in was Seiji Maehara, who I still very much like.
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« Reply #59 on: August 26, 2012, 10:33:07 pm »
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Anyways, if you're looking for a votematch/political compass type test to help you in Japanese politics, the Yomiuri has a good one for the 2010 House of Councillor's Election.

http://vote.yomiuri.co.jp

I got what I expected, 69% for the DPJ and Your Party.
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« Reply #60 on: August 27, 2012, 12:25:30 am »
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SDP and then Komeito. Huh, not really what I was expecting for second. DPJ and Your Party were both considerably higher than the LDP.
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« Reply #61 on: August 27, 2012, 01:00:53 am »
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Yeah, my third party was Tachigare Nippon, which weirded the hell out of me. But it's probably because the Constitution question gave them a huge boost. The LDP also scored fairly low.
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« Reply #62 on: August 27, 2012, 04:54:18 am »
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I took the test too. I cannot claim to know too much about some of the issues raised.  But as expected Your Party was my top party. 
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« Reply #63 on: August 27, 2012, 05:01:01 am »
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I agree that the LDP is not that popular but they do not need to be.  LDP has a deep bench whereas DJP does not in terms of a farm league of politicans that can win the personal vote without the party label.   I agree in the PR segment LDP will be the largest party but will not do that well,  It is in the FPTP section that LDP will romp home.  The anti-LDP vote will be splintered due to the disappointment in DPJ and LDP candidates will get enough LDP + personal vote to win a lot of seats where if if "against all" was an option like Russia, "against all" would win. 

I don't see why everyone thinks Hashimoto is going to have "an outfit". I simply cannot see him building a national party, or even a regional party (in Kansai) in a matter of weeks. Plus, third parties never break in during general elections. If he's smart, he's going to wait until the next upper house election and pull what YP did.

Also, I don't think the LDP is going to do that well. The problem with the LDP is that very few people actually like it. I could see them with a plurality of 160-170 or so, but 200 is a little difficult.

The member of the district I once lived in was Seiji Maehara, who I still very much like.
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« Reply #64 on: August 27, 2012, 11:40:48 am »
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The LDP has largely lost their electoral edge in the rural "farm leagues". Nokyo stopped endorsing LDP candidates by default in 2003 and I'm pretty sure the urban-rural gap vanished by 2005.

Keep in mind, the DPJ, especially on the FPTP level, are still largely staffed by long-term politicians from other parties. Most of them have been around since at least the eight-party period of the 90's and some of them are long-serving LDP/JSP members.

A lot of the institutional support for LDP candidates (ie, counting on corporate cash, doctors, farmers, postal workers), this was all vanishing even before 2009. And it hasn't come back. Some members in the LDP have yet to understand that they are simply no longer the default party of government. I do think they are poised to do well, but not 200-seats well.

Also, I'd like Your Party a lot more if it weren't for their decidely anti-bureaucrat rhetoric, which although very popular among the public, turns me off a lot.
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« Reply #65 on: August 27, 2012, 11:57:00 am »
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Is there a version in a language I can understand?
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« Reply #66 on: August 27, 2012, 04:06:22 pm »
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Thanks for your insights.  Say that LDP gets 160-170 and New Komeito gets is usual 25-30 (22-23 PR plus a few FPTP seats), where does that leave government formation as LDP-New Komeito will have about almost 200 seats.  Under this situation DPJ will most likely have about 140 seats.  I just do not see any viable government unless it is a LDP-DPJ grand coalition.  Even if LDP-Komeito or DPJ manage to cobble up a coalition government it almost will not have a majority in the upper house unless it is a massive coalition which most likley will collpase under its own weight soon anyway.  But without a majority in the Upper house it will just be a re-run of the twisted diet of 2007 to 2009 and 2010 to now where nothing gets done.  This whole comsumption tax business of Noda seems to me a desperate attempt to get anything done but pushing for something that was actually in the LDP manifesto.  So if so are we not looking at a LDP-DPJ government? 


The LDP has largely lost their electoral edge in the rural "farm leagues". Nokyo stopped endorsing LDP candidates by default in 2003 and I'm pretty sure the urban-rural gap vanished by 2005.

Keep in mind, the DPJ, especially on the FPTP level, are still largely staffed by long-term politicians from other parties. Most of them have been around since at least the eight-party period of the 90's and some of them are long-serving LDP/JSP members.

A lot of the institutional support for LDP candidates (ie, counting on corporate cash, doctors, farmers, postal workers), this was all vanishing even before 2009. And it hasn't come back. Some members in the LDP have yet to understand that they are simply no longer the default party of government. I do think they are poised to do well, but not 200-seats well.

Also, I'd like Your Party a lot more if it weren't for their decidely anti-bureaucrat rhetoric, which although very popular among the public, turns me off a lot.
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« Reply #67 on: August 27, 2012, 04:14:46 pm »
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Hmmm... you might have to educate me here.  I thought that Watanabe formed Your Party in 2009 before the 2009 elections and actually ran candidates in the 2009 elections.  Granted Your Party did much better in 2010 elections but I have to assume that Your Party built on its efforts in 2009 which led to its good results in 2010.  Also what is different between 2009 and 2010 is that in 2009 DPJ captured most of the anti-LDP vote and that vote got split over many parties in 2010 as disappointment in DPJ set in.  It seems a 2012 election will be more like 2010 than 2009 where there will be a lot of anti-LDP/anti-DPJ votes up for grabs.  I  agree it would be hard for Hashimoto to put something togeather that quickly which means it might not be able to realize the opportunity it has been given but I would think the opportunity is there in 2012.

I don't see why everyone thinks Hashimoto is going to have "an outfit". I simply cannot see him building a national party, or even a regional party (in Kansai) in a matter of weeks. Plus, third parties never break in during general elections. If he's smart, he's going to wait until the next upper house election and pull what YP did.
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« Reply #68 on: August 27, 2012, 04:28:17 pm »
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Is there a version in a language I can understand?

Uh...you could try google translate. It would probably be a complete fail though. If I have a lot of extra time tonight, I might try and translate it.

Thanks for your insights.  Say that LDP gets 160-170 and New Komeito gets is usual 25-30 (22-23 PR plus a few FPTP seats), where does that leave government formation as LDP-New Komeito will have about almost 200 seats.  Under this situation DPJ will most likely have about 140 seats.  I just do not see any viable government unless it is a LDP-DPJ grand coalition.  Even if LDP-Komeito or DPJ manage to cobble up a coalition government it almost will not have a majority in the upper house unless it is a massive coalition which most likley will collpase under its own weight soon anyway.  But without a majority in the Upper house it will just be a re-run of the twisted diet of 2007 to 2009 and 2010 to now where nothing gets done.  This whole comsumption tax business of Noda seems to me a desperate attempt to get anything done but pushing for something that was actually in the LDP manifesto.  So if so are we not looking at a LDP-DPJ government?

Komeito does not have any FPTP seats. It is very unlikely to gain any FPTP seats. I'm not even sure if Komeito can pull of that respectable 22-23 PR.

Also, a grand coalition would be unbelievably bitter medicine. The relationship between the DPJ and LDP is very rocky and angry. The DPJers believe the LDP has blocked them on everything in a sole attempt to win the next election. I know people point to the JSP-LDP coalition as inspiration, but contrary to popular beliefs, the LDP and JSP actually had a pretty good working relationship after the 70's. After all, most of the major scandals hit people from both parties.

Of course, it seems very unlikely that any bill could get passed in the new Diet without both LDP and DPJ support, but that's essentially the situation we ALREADY have. The LDP is really pushing for a new diet for three reasons

1) Tanigaki is running out of time. LDP leadership elections are in September. He will probably lose them.

2) The LDP has a tiny sliver of a chance in that if the DPJ completely collapses and their support goes EVERYWHERE ELSE, the LDP could be in a position where they could pass bills with either DPJ support OR the support of several smaller parties. This would be much better for them than the current cohabitation.

3) Under a new diet, the LDP could probably unilaterally trigger a loss of confidence and new elections if their support ever recovered from the total base minimum fail that it is currently at.
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« Reply #69 on: August 27, 2012, 04:43:28 pm »
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Hmmm... you might have to educate me here.  I thought that Watanabe formed Your Party in 2009 before the 2009 elections and actually ran candidates in the 2009 elections.  Granted Your Party did much better in 2010 elections but I have to assume that Your Party built on its efforts in 2009 which led to its good results in 2010.  Also what is different between 2009 and 2010 is that in 2009 DPJ captured most of the anti-LDP vote and that vote got split over many parties in 2010 as disappointment in DPJ set in.  It seems a 2012 election will be more like 2010 than 2009 where there will be a lot of anti-LDP/anti-DPJ votes up for grabs.  I  agree it would be hard for Hashimoto to put something togeather that quickly which means it might not be able to realize the opportunity it has been given but I would think the opportunity is there in 2012.

YP did exceptionally well in 2010 because of how Upper House elections work. They had enough support in the Kanto plains to take a seat in several of the multi-member districts, but not enough to outright win pluralities. In short, YP would have won very few FPTP districts, but could come second or third in prefectures that they were strong in. People knew that and knew that if they lived in the Kanto plains, voting for a YP candidate would not be a waste.

I mean, Hashimoto very well could run people in 2012. And he's filed enough paperwork so that he could if he wanted to. At the same time, his performance would probably be underwhelming if he did.

On the other hand, waiting until 2013 to run for the Upper House is also a tricky position considering Hashimoto wants to abolish the upper house.
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« Reply #70 on: August 28, 2012, 12:48:21 pm »
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Is there a version in a language I can understand?

Uh...you could try google translate. It would probably be a complete fail though.
Given that google translate is a complete and utter failure at translating between English and languages closely related to it... I figured it probably wasn't worth trying for Japanese. Grin
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« Reply #71 on: August 29, 2012, 01:28:10 am »
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Osaka mayor to establish new political party


OSAKA, Aug. 28 Kyodo 
 (EDS: ADDING NEW INFO IN 4TH AND 5TH GRAPHS)
     Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto plans to establish a new national 
political party as early as mid-September ahead of the approaching 
general election for the House of Representatives, political sources
said Tuesday.
     The Osaka-based local political group Osaka Ishin no Kai (Osaka
Restoration Association) that Hashimoto, a reform-minded 
lawyer-turned-politician, founded in April 2010 will call on more 
than five current Diet members to join the new party, the sources 
said.
     Under the law, a political party needs to have at least five 
Diet members under its wing or to have gained more than 2 percent of
votes cast in the latest national election.
     An official of the group said that five lawmakers are set to 
leave their parties and join Hashimoto's group as early as 
Your Party.
     Hashimoto, leader of Osaka Ishin no Kai, told reporters Tuesday 
his group has yet to decide on the establishment of the new political 
party.
     Hashimoto apparently does not want to link up with any existing 
political parties but to unite with individual lawmakers to try to 
distinguish the new party from conventional ones, the sources said.
     Osaka Ishin no Kai plans to unveil a set of election promises 
later this week. It also plans to invite incumbent lawmakers to an 
open forum in Osaka on Sept. 9 and look at their opinions on its 
Shinji Oguma, a House of Councillors member from Your Party, were 
among the members who met with him.
     On Wednesday, Osaka Gov. Ichiro Matsui, who serves as secretary 
general of Osaka Ishin no Kai, said the group would not call on 
current political parties to join the Sept. 9 open forum but would 
like to discuss issues with individual lawmakers.
     Hashimoto, 43, who was once a TV personality, won the Osaka 
gubernatorial election in January 2008, and then resigned in November 
2011 to run in the Osaka mayoral election.
     Hashimoto, who proposed the administrative abolition of the two 
large cities of Osaka and Sakai to create a metropolis similar to 
Tokyo in a bid to avoid overlapping administrative structures, beat 
incumbent Osaka Mayor Kunio Hiramatsu in the November 2011 election.
     Osaka Ishin no Kai was established in April last year and 
includes more than 100 mayors and prefectural and municipal assembly 
members in its ranks.
     In June this year, Osaka Ishin no Kai launched a political 
school, called Ishin Seijijuku, which is intended to train 
politicians who can take the lead in reforming Japan's governance.
election promises.
     The group also plans to publicly solicit candidates for the next 
general election and field candidates in the election on a nationwide 
scale.
     On Sept. 8, Osaka Ishin no Kai is scheduled to hold a meeting of 
prefectural and municipal assembly members who are members of the 
group and confirm these targets. Hashimoto may declare the 
establishment of the new party at the group's fundraising function on 
Sept. 12, the sources said.
     In mid-August, Hashimoto met with members of a bipartisan group 
on local administration reforms in Osaka. Matsuno, Matsunami and 
mid-September.
     Among the five are Yorihisa Matsuno, a fourth-term lower house
member of the governing Democratic Party of Japan, and Kenta 
Matsunami, a third-term lower house member of the main opposition 
Liberal Democratic Party, as well as two members from the opposition
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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koenkai
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« Reply #72 on: August 29, 2012, 11:39:35 am »
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Well, damn. Looks like I was completely wrong. I suppose he did change his mind over the last six months. Perhaps the Bunraku thing forced his hand?
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Nathan
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« Reply #73 on: August 29, 2012, 01:12:17 pm »
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The bunraku thing?
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A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #74 on: August 30, 2012, 03:48:35 pm »
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Some updates from Tanigaki's Wiki page: the HOR passed the VAT hike and a censure motion against Noda. Now the opposition parties are boycotting debate and apparently Tanigaki might face leadership challenges from Abe and others.
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+7.35, +3.65



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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