Japan 2012

[asexual trans victimologist]

My understanding is that, as koenkai has said, Tanigaki is much more likely to lose any leadership challenge at this point, before an election, than to win one. The DPJ also might have a leadership election coming up, but among people who still support the DPJ after events of the past few months Noda seems to retain some measure of popularity and respect.

The Japanese media seems to think that Noda will not call elections just yet, and may in fact try to govern Japan through an opposition boycott of the Diet for the next...however long. Days, weeks. I hope not months.

I've always personally rather liked Abe for some reason, even though I don't agree with the bulk of his political positions even in the Japanese context.

[RogueBeaver]

Factional crap again? Cause he's about to lead them back to power so presumably it isn't a performance problem.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Factional crap again? Cause he's about to lead them back to power so presumably it isn't a performance problem.

It kind of is, in that he's about to lead them back to power through lack of any other options, not because there's anything remotely impressive about him or his leadership.

It is also factional crap, though. This is the Diet of Japan after all.

[asexual trans victimologist]

LDP should put responsibilities ahead of party politics

The submission of a censure motion against Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda can serve no meaningful purpose.

Censure motions do not have the power to force prime ministers to dissolve the House of Representatives. It is shocking to witness the opposition camp putting party interests first, with members abandoning their legislative responsibilities.

On Wednesday, the opposition-controlled House of Councillors passed a censure motion against Noda. The motion was jointly submitted by seven political groups, including People's Life First and Your Party. Most opposition groups, including the Liberal Democratic Party, approved the motion, outnumbering the ruling parties.

The censure motion denounced the enactment of the consumption tax hike bills, saying it disregarded public opinion. The motion also criticized the Democratic Party of Japan, LDP and New Komeito for cooperating to pass the bills, saying they "acted against the spirit of parliamentary democracy."

However, this accusation seems strange, considering that about 80 percent of all lower and upper house members--including those from the LDP--voted in favor of the bills.

How could the LDP support such a censure motion at this stage? Through its members' actions, the LDP has demeaned itself as a political party. On the other hand, Komeito stayed consistent with its pro-tax hike stance by abstaining from voting on the censure motion.

[RogueBeaver]

I strongly doubt the other contenders are any more impressive, but they'll probably do it if the factions can agree on a single Anti-Tanigaki. As for the editorial agreed 100%. Brazen contempt for voter intelligence.

[jaichind]

Japan Political Turmoil Forces Government to Plan Spending Delay

     Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) --  Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi
said the government may delay payment of 4 trillion yen ($51
billion) in tax revenue to local governments if a bill needed to
finance spending isn’t passed soon.
     “Funds for the general account may dry up if the bill
isn’t passed during the parliamentary session” ending on Sept.
8, Azumi said at a press conference in Tokyo today. “We need to
consider postponing as much spending as possible to delay the
timing of budget depletion.”
     Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s effort to pass legislation
to issue 38.3 trillion yen of deficit-financing bonds stalled
after the opposition-dominated upper house passed a censure
motion against him this week, halting parliamentary business.
Azumi said that the government will continue to pay interest on
already issued bonds as planned.
     As well as delaying tax transfers scheduled for early
September to municipalities and prefectures, the government is
also considering temporarily cutting spending on travel,
building upkeep and other internal costs by more than half,
according to documents released by the Finance Ministry today.
     The government could hit the spending ceiling as soon as
October without the passage of bill, the documents showed. The
revenues from the deficit financing bonds account for 42 percent
of this year’s budget.

[jaichind]

I really hope Taro Kono runs again.  I feel what he advocates really
make a lot of sense.

Japan Opposition LDP to Hold Leadership Contest Sept. 26

     Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s main opposition Liberal
Democratic Party will hold its leadership contest on Sept. 26,
the party said in a statement.
     LDP President Sadakazu Tanigaki is expected to run for re-
election, the Yomiuri newspaper said today, without citing
anyone. Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and ex-premier
Shinzo Abe will also probably run, according to separate Yomiuri
reports.
     The ruling Democratic Party of Japan will meet Sept. 21 to
decide whether to retain Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as its
leader.

[jaichind]

While I agree with you that given the way lower house elections work versus how upper house elections works (FPTP vs some multi membered seats) does make it easier for YP to do well for upper house elections.  In the case of 2009 vs 2010 performance of YP I feel a much greater factor is just raw number of votes.  In 2009 lower house elections YP got .87% of the district vote and 4.27% of the PR vote, which translated into 2 FPTP seats and 3 PR seats out of the total 480 seats available.  In 2010 upper house elections YP got 10.24% of the district vote and 13.59% of the PR vote, which translated into 3 district seats and 7 PR seats out of 121 seats available.  YP ran a lot less candidates in 2009 FPTP than in 2010.  That is most likely because what you pointed out that in 2010 these candidates are more likely to win due to the systems.  But another and I feel bigger factor just has to be that YP was much more popular in 2010 versus 2009 as seen in the jump in the PR vote share from 2009 to 2010.   

YP did exceptionally well in 2010 because of how Upper House elections work. They had enough support in the Kanto plains to take a seat in several of the multi-member districts, but not enough to outright win pluralities. In short, YP would have won very few FPTP districts, but could come second or third in prefectures that they were strong in. People knew that and knew that if they lived in the Kanto plains, voting for a YP candidate would not be a waste.

I mean, Hashimoto very well could run people in 2012. And he's filed enough paperwork so that he could if he wanted to. At the same time, his performance would probably be underwhelming if he did.

On the other hand, waiting until 2013 to run for the Upper House is also a tricky position considering Hashimoto wants to abolish the upper house.

[jaichind]

His idea of having one giant PR bloc is interesting but does have
the net affect of messing up the Costa Rica arrangements lots of
parties like LDP and DPJ where people alternate between PR list
of a bloc and a district of said bloc.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Hashimoto group to propose halving No. of lower house seats+

     Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto said Thursday that his political 
group is planning to propose cutting the number of seats in the House 
of Representatives to 240 from the present 480, as part of its policy 
pledges for an upcoming general election.
     The regional political group will try to cut the number of seats 
for the lower house's single-seat constituencies to 150 from the 
present 300, the popular mayor said at a news conference.
     Hashimoto, leader of Osaka Ishin no Kai (Osaka restoration 
association), said that one seat is enough for each of Japan's 47 
prefectures but that he will propose expanding the area of each 
constituency to one with a population of about 1 million.
     On the proportional representation system, Hashimoto said his 
group will aim to abolish the current 11 regional blocs and instead 
establish one for the whole country, with cutting the number of seats 
to 90 from the current 180.
     Currently, the number of seats in a general election for the 
lower house stands at 480 -- 300 seats for single-seat constituencies 
and 180 seats for proportional representation in 11 blocs.
     Osaka Ishin no Kai plans to incorporate those proposals in a set 
of election promises under the title Ishin Hassaku (eight policy 
programs for restoring the country).
     Osaka Ishin no Kai, which is currently composed of local 
politicians such as mayors and assembly members, plans to establish a
new national political party as early as mid-September with the next 
general election approaching.
     Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda promised earlier this month in 
talks with opposition leaders dissolving the lower house "sometime 
soon" in exchange for their help in passing tax hike legislation.
     Hashimoto, speaking at the news conference, also criticized 
incumbent lawmakers for attending funeral services or joining "bon" 
dance festivals in their constituencies.
     He said Diet members need to keep some distance from voters, 
noting that their duties are to decide on the course of the country.
     Hashimoto proposed the administrative abolition of the two large
cities of Osaka and Sakai to create a metropolis similar to Tokyo in 
a bid to avoid overlapping administrative structures.
     The Osaka mayor said he himself would not run in the next 
general election, noting that his mission is to realize the Osaka 
metropolis.
     Hashimoto established Osaka Ishin no Kai in April last year. 
Osaka Gov. Ichiro Matsui serves as its secretary general and more 
than 100 prefectural and municipal assembly members in Osaka 
Prefecture are part of the group.
     Hashimoto, 43, a lawyer who was once a TV personality, won the 
Osaka gubernatorial election in January 2008, and then resigned in 
November 2011 to run in the Osaka mayoral election.

[Marcus Aurelius]

How well can the Japanese Communist Party perform in the upcoming election ? If I recall well, it's still the fourth largest party in Parliament after DPJ, LPD and New Komeito, and they always reach a 6 to 10 % share of votes. Also, do they have any influence at all on who will form the next government ?

[asexual trans victimologist]

Hashimoto indulges in vaguely populist smoke and mirrors as usual. What would halving the size of the House of Representatives--making it I should add slightly smaller than the House of Councillors--actually accomplish?

How well can the Japanese Communist Party perform in the upcoming election ? If I recall well, it's still the fourth largest party in Parliament after DPJ, LPD and New Komeito, and they always reach a 6 to 10 % share of votes. Also, do they have any influence at all on who will form the next government ?

Neither particularly better nor worse than usual, I should think, and no, unless things are very mechakucha mathematically.

[後援会]

While I agree with you that given the way lower house elections work versus how upper house elections works (FPTP vs some multi membered seats) does make it easier for YP to do well for upper house elections.  In the case of 2009 vs 2010 performance of YP I feel a much greater factor is just raw number of votes.  In 2009 lower house elections YP got .87% of the district vote and 4.27% of the PR vote, which translated into 2 FPTP seats and 3 PR seats out of the total 480 seats available.  In 2010 upper house elections YP got 10.24% of the district vote and 13.59% of the PR vote, which translated into 3 district seats and 7 PR seats out of 121 seats available.  YP ran a lot less candidates in 2009 FPTP than in 2010.  That is most likely because what you pointed out that in 2010 these candidates are more likely to win due to the systems.  But another and I feel bigger factor just has to be that YP was much more popular in 2010 versus 2009 as seen in the jump in the PR vote share from 2009 to 2010.   

Well, I don't think anyone actually knew who YP was. Those small lower house seats gave them a platform to advertise their new party. On the other hand, I think people already know who Hashimoto is.

How well can the Japanese Communist Party perform in the upcoming election ? If I recall well, it's still the fourth largest party in Parliament after DPJ, LPD and New Komeito, and they always reach a 6 to 10 % share of votes. Also, do they have any influence at all on who will form the next government ?

The JCP has a very high floor (dedicated support base) and a very low ceiling (everyone else in Japan thinks they're batsh**t insane). They'll do the same as always.

[jaichind]

It seems Hashimoto's party is polling ahead of DPJ now.
Of course it really does not have the organization to translate
this into seats as of yet. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
58.3% want lower house dissolution: Kyodo poll

     Over half of Japan's eligible voters believe Prime Minister 
Yoshihiko Noda should dissolve the lower house for a general election
following his censure by the upper house last month, an opinion poll 
by Kyodo News showed Sunday.
     The response of 58.3 percent of those surveyed indicates a 
growing desire among the public to give a verdict on the ruling 
Democratic Party of Japan, which secured passage of legislation to 
double the nation's 5 percent consumption tax rate by 2015.
     The poll also showed that Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto's political
group, which plans to set up a new party for the next general 
election, ranks second after the main opposition Liberal Democratic 
Party in terms of voting intentions for the proportional 
representation block of the lower house election, securing the 
support of 17.6 percent of respondents, up 6.9 percentage points from
the previous survey in August.
     It was the first time in the poll that Hashimoto's group has 
secured greater support than the DPJ. Support for the LDP stood at 
22.2 percent while the DPJ secured 12.4 percent.
     Among other parties, Your Party secured 5.4 percent support, the
New Komeito party 3.9 percent, the Japanese Communist Party 2.6 
percent, People's Life First led by former DPJ chief Ichiro Ozawa 2.1 
percent, and the Social Democratic Party 0.8 percent.
     Public support for Noda's Cabinet stood at 26.3 percent, 
slightly down from 27.9 percent in August, while the disapproval 
rating stood at 59.4 percent, edging up from 59.0 percent, according 
to the nationwide telephone survey conducted Saturday and Sunday that 
received responses from 1,014 eligible voters.
     On Noda's course following the censure motion, 28.4 percent said 
he did not need to step down as the motion was not legally binding, 
while 7.1 percent said the entire Cabinet should resign.
     On the timing of the dissolution of the House of 
Representatives, 30.1 percent said the lower house should be 
dissolved during the extraordinary Diet session in fall, while 22.9 
percent said it should be dissolved during the current parliamentary 
session through Sept. 8.
     The poll also showed 22.0 percent are expecting a double 
election for the lower house and the House of Councillors next summer.
     In the poll, 55.9 percent of respondents said they do not think 
Noda's government handled appropriately an incident last month in 
which Chinese activists landed on one of the Japanese-controlled 
Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, while 39.7 percent said the 
matter was dealt with appropriately.
     Japanese authorities arrested and deported all 14 people on the 
Hong Kong vessel that sailed to the disputed islands

[後援会]

So word on the street is that Tanigaki may not even have the signatures neccesary to run again for the leadership elections, because the Koga faction may not be behind him again.

Anyways, that means every single possible replacement candidate will be far more hawkish on international issues (Tanigaki being generally considered a moderate), which may to lead to funtimes if/when the LDP retakes a plurality.

[Vasall des Midas]

Anyways, if you're looking for a votematch/political compass type test to help you in Japanese politics, the Yomiuri has a good one for the 2010 House of Councillor's Election.

http://vote.yomiuri.co.jp

I got what I expected, 69% for the DPJ and Your Party.

Okay, just for the hell of this I'm doing this google-translated.

Questions that work particularly badly, making them impossible or near-impossible to answer:

"Constitution. You should maintain the current constitutional".
"Teacher's license renewal system. Should be overhauled Naishiwa abolished the current teacher license renewal" (What's "Naishiwa"?)
"Elderly health care system. Health care system should be abolished Elderly."
"Post, raising limits Kampo. Should increase the maximum amount each deposit of postal savings and insurance limits Simple."
"Abolition of set-aside policy. Policy (set-aside) should be abolished rice production adjustment." This appears to be about an agricultural subsidy, but what exactly is being said?
"Reviewing judge system. System should be overhauled judge." I suppose the issue here is with the original question rather than the ungrammatical translation, actually (same with the first one). Overhauled? Towards what?
"Visualization of interrogation. Should proceed with the visualization of interrogation" Tf?
"Governments. We should introduce a system of state road." Headline and question don't seem to match - which one is the dramatically mistranslated one?

Anyways, results with don't knows on all these...

SDP 89%
Commies 77%
Komeito 48%
Your Party 42%
New Party people 42%
DPJ 36%
LDP 18%
Our Japan 18%
New Party Reform 12%

Seems to be rating only the 17 questions I gave answers to, as it clarifies 89% as 15-2 etc.

[jaichind]

From Kyodo news. 
---------------------------------------------------------------
 7 lawmakers leaving parties to join Osaka mayor's new party

     Seven lawmakers announced Tuesday that they will leave their 
current parties to join a new political party to be set up soon by 
Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto.
     Among the seven are three from the ruling Democratic Party of 
Japan -- Yorihisa Matsuno, a former deputy chief Cabinet secretary 
and a House of Representatives member, Takashi Ishizeki, also a lower 
house lawmaker, and Masashi Mito, a House of Councillors member.
     Once the three lawmakers leave the ruling party, the DPJ-led 
parliamentary group's strength will stand at 87 in the 242-seat upper 
house -- the same as the LDP-led group's. The ruling bloc's strength 
in the 480-seat lower house would stand at 245, slightly above a 
simple majority.
     Matsuno told reporters that he would revive the idea of 
politicians taking the lead in administration rather than 
bureaucrats, and promote reform of the Diet as a member of the new 
party.
     A senior DPJ lawmaker said the new party leadership, to be 
formed after the party's Sept. 21 presidential election, will decide 
on whether to accept the three lawmakers' letters of resignation.
     The other lawmakers leaving their parties are Kenta Matsunami, a 
lower house member of the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, 
and three upper house members of the smaller opposition Your Party -- 
Shinji Oguma, Hiroshi Ueno and Fumiki Sakurauchi.
     The seven lawmakers agreed to participate in a fundraising event 
that Hashimoto's local political group, called Osaka Ishin no Kai 
(Osaka restoration association), will hold in Osaka on Wednesday.
     It is expected that Hashimoto will declare the establishment of 
a new political party, to be called Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan 
restoration association), at that event.
     Speaking to reporters in Osaka on Tuesday, Hashimoto welcomed 
the seven lawmakers' departure from their parties. Hashimoto is 
expected to head the new political party.

[jaichind]

My understanding is that Ishihara junior is actaully fairly moderate
within the LDP on foreign policy and for sure a lot more moderate
when compared to his father.  If he wins LDP leadership race we
would have a father-son pair leader of parties.  Ishihara senior
at the head of Sunrise Party and Ishihara junior at head of LDP.
After the elections they might even have coalition talks over a
family reunion dinner

-------------------------------------------------------------
Ishihara emerges as leading candidate in LDP leadership race

     Nobuteru Ishihara, secretary general of the main opposition 
Liberal Democratic Party, declared his candidacy on Tuesday for the 
party's presidential election, emerging as a leading contender to 
become Japan's prime minister should his party win a general election 
to be held within a year.
     His declaration came after several days of wrangling in which 
Ishihara, the party's No. 2 man, tried to force his boss, incumbent 
LDP chief Sadakazu Tanigaki, to bow out of the Sept. 26 race.
     Many LDP lawmakers had expressed concern that the party may fail 
to attract wider public support in the next House of Representatives 
election with Tanigaki as leader, despite low support ratings for the 
ruling Democratic Party of Japan, headed by Prime Minister Yoshihiko 
Noda.
     The LDP leadership race has drawn attention as the party could 
form the largest political force in the lower house after the 
upcoming general election, with the leader of the party at that time 
likely to become prime minister.
     The current four-year term of the lower house expires in the 
summer of 2013.
     Backed by a wide range of LDP members -- from junior lawmakers 
to veterans such as former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori -- Ishihara, 
the eldest son of Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, is expected to become 
a principal candidate.
     Ishihara and Tanigaki had met several times last week but had 
failed to unite behind one candidate. On Monday, Tanigaki said he 
will withdraw from the party presidential race.
     So far, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former 
Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura have already formally declared 
their candidacy for the leadership election, for which official 
campaigning will kick off on Friday.
     Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also plans to announce 
Wednesday that he will enter the race, while acting LDP policy chief 
Yoshimasa Hayashi has continued to make efforts to collect the 20 
signatures necessary to run.
     As for the DPJ presidential election on Sept. 21, four 
candidates, including Noda who is widely expected to be reelected, 
stepped up their efforts to garner the support of party members.
     The three other candidates are former internal affairs minister 
Kazuhiro Haraguchi and former agriculture ministers Michihiko Kano 
and Hirotaka Akamatsu.
     Issues such as Noda's unpopular decision to double the nation's 
5 percent sales tax rate by 2015 and his intention to dissolve the 
lower house "sometime soon" have been in the spotlight in the DPJ 
presidential race.
     Noda has faced criticism from his three rivals for having split 
the party over the tax hike proposal and raising the possibility of 
the DPJ, which swept into office in 2009, losing power in the next 
general election.

[jaichind]

How I see things: Seven MPs agreed to join the new national party led by Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, defecting from their various former parties (including the DPJ and LDP).  Hashimoto formally named the party the Japan Restoration Society.  The two main parties will soon elect leaders ahead of a lower house election that Noda has promised to call "soon".  LDP leader Sadakazu Tanigaki said he will not run for re-election as party leader; former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is contender to succeed him but Nobuteru Ishihara most likely is the frontrunner.  Three current and former ministers (Kazuhiro Haraguchi, Hirotaka Akamatsu and Michihiko Kano) will run to succeed Noda as DPJ leader.  A September 4 voter opinion poll puts Hashimoto at 23.8%, the LDP at 21.7% and the DPJ at 17.4%.  Without a more popular figure at the helm, the Democractic Party of Japan's (DPJ) election prospects remain dim.  Yet with defeat anticipated in any case, party heavyweights will likely demur and let Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda lead the party to disaster, before perhaps running to replace him afterwards.  A right-wing coalition between the conservative main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the newly formed Japan Restoration Society seems the most likely election outcome at
present. Sunrise Party might also get into this coaltion as well.

[asexual trans victimologist]

A so-called grand coalition seems to me like a likelier outcome than a right-wing one.

[後援会]

It all depends how badly the Democratic Party gets wiped out, doesn't it?

[jaichind]

I guess that in an election "soon", in the FPTP vote it will LDP-Komeito first, DPJ second, Hashimoto third.  In the PR vote it will be LDP-Komeito first, Hashimoto second, DPJ third.  I still feel that in the FPTP vote, Hashimoto is more likely to hurt DPJ as some anti-LDP votes that would have gone to DPJ would go to Hashimoto.  Of course no party/block will have a majority.  Hashimoto Party's platform does have some very far fetched ideas which would make it hard for LDP-New Homeito to form an alliance with it but LDP's DNA of power at all costs will overcome this.  BTW, this setup would suit DPJ fine as they will benifit from any anger/disillutionment with this new government when it comes, and it will come.

[asexual trans victimologist]

That's a good point. I guess it depends, in terms of my personal preference, on whether I'd rather see some kind of coherent future for the DPJ or an immediate-future government that at all costs does not include the groups led by Governor Misogyny and the Hashists*.

*band name, btw

[後援会]

Hashimoto may not do as poorly on the FPTP as people expect. For one, his base of support is in the Kansai region, which is not the LDP's most robust region for FPTPers (you know, Tanigaki withstanding).

That being said, I wouldn't mind casting a proportional vote for Hashimoto. There are a handful of local DPJers I like, but I like Hashimoto, although personal experience is probably prejudicing me in this.

[jaichind]

Note that I refered to Hashimoto's party, Japan Restoration Party, as Hashimoto Party.  There are two reasons for this.  One, there is no offcial English version of the name of this new party.  Second, it was a sarcastic joke of my as a link to the fact that many Germans back in the mid to late 1920s refered to the NASDP as Hitler Partei.

That's a good point. I guess it depends, in terms of my personal preference, on whether I'd rather see some kind of coherent future for the DPJ or an immediate-future government that at all costs does not include the groups led by Governor Misogyny and the Hashists*.

*band name, btw

[asexual trans victimologist]

Duly noted! I think I'm going to continue using 'Governor Misogyny and the Hashists' as a combined shorthand for Sunrise and Japan Restoration, unless I really need to distinguish between them, because it makes them sound like a crappy postmodern jazz band.