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Author Topic: Can someone explain the PA13 thread?  (Read 9011 times)
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« on: January 16, 2005, 03:59:54 am »
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I only bothered to read the first and last pages of the thread. It was TeenGOP saying Brown had it "in the bag" and Keystone Phil sheepishly agreeing. Can anyone explain the most important parts of the thread? And why it went on and on and on for months?
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2005, 04:06:21 am »
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The PA 13 thread cannot be explained.  It can only be experienced.

Read the thread.  Be the thread.
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« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2005, 11:34:48 am »
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PA 13 was pretty much "in the bag" for Brown when the thread was started. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind (not even your mind Flyers) that Brown clearly had the edge and was likely to win.


It went on for months because we have two very passionate members (myself and Flyers2005) arguing over a race that was placed in CNN's Top 4 list. Politics in our area is very intense and I don't think you can fully understand it unless you live here/stay here for a campaign.
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2005, 06:45:53 pm »
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PA-13 has been, since 1992, one of the most contested districts in the US. 

1992 - Margolis-Mesvinsky(D) elected in what has traditionally Republican District; it's been GOP since the Civil War.  This marks the beginning of the "Southeast Slump," Republican registered Phila suburbs begin voting Democrat.

1993 - Margolis-Mesvinsky cast the deciding vote on Clinton's tax increases; in exchange, Clinton agrees to hold a town meeting on taxes in her district (he does).

1994 - In the "Gingrich Revolution," Jon Fox takes the seat.

1996 -  Fox holds on, against Hoeffel, by a margin of 84 votes!  This is the closest congressional race in the country that year.

1998 -  Hoeffel, against the impeachment background, defeats Fox.

2000 - PA goes Dem in the presidential election, largely because of the Southeast Slump, Hoeffel wins by less than 10 points.

2001 -  Redistricting, Borsky's (D) seat abollished, GOP NE Phila goes into this suburban district.

2002 -  The Southeast Slump in full effect as Rendell wins by holding the southeastern counties.  Hoeffel re-elected.

2004 -  Hoeffel runs for Senate, seat opened.

As can be seen, what happens in this district plays an important part in both state and national politics.  Unless Phila turnout drops, this district is the key to what happens in PA.

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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2005, 06:48:49 pm »
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PA-13 has been, since 1992, one of the most contested districts in the US. 


2002 -  The Southeast Slump in full effect as Rendell wins by holding the southeastern counties.  Hoeffel re-elected.


Hoeffel re-elected...by just four points in a race he was supposed to easily win. His victory in 2000 was by about 8 or 9 points.
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« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2005, 07:26:00 pm »
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In most statewide races from 1978 (at least) to 1992, I could make an argument that who would win PA depend on the number of Democrats who vote Republican in Southwestern PA. 

I now make the argument a Democrat winning PA depends on how many Republicans in the Phila suburbs vote for him.
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2005, 10:07:19 pm »
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There is no way a district that voted for Gore more than any district in the country that is represented by a Republican was absolutely in the bag for a Republican.

I had always believed that district was far more Democratic-leaning than anyone gave it credit for. I was probably right, or Allyson Schwartz must be the best campaigner and politician on the planet to go from a race she had no chance in to win by 13 points.
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2005, 11:10:03 pm »
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There is no way a district that voted for Gore more than any district in the country that is represented by a Republican was absolutely in the bag for a Republican.

I had always believed that district was far more Democratic-leaning than anyone gave it credit for. I was probably right, or Allyson Schwartz must be the best campaigner and politician on the planet to go from a race she had no chance in to win by 13 points.

You seriously don't understand this district. Melissa Brown was more pretty much the perfect thing for PA 13 - a center-right Republican who could connect with both parts of this district. Schwartz was the out of touch liberal from out of the district. Going into this race, I thought Brown should have won by about 5-6 points.

In the end, Schwartz had tons of money. This allowed her to put up about three major ads before Election Day. The straight Dem ticket voting was stronger than expected. And lastly, the Brown campaign was a mess. I'm not looking for excuses. I really do know more than you when it comes to this campaign, especially more than you BRTD. Brown was sort of like the incumbent. She reached 47% against an incumbent who many thought would have an easy re-election. People knew her. People liked her stances. In the end, Schwartz had the stronger team.

Now you guys can mock me all you'd like but I stand by what I say. Schwartz didn't win because she was Schwartz. Schwartz won because she received some of the greatest outside help imaginable. I don't care that she won by 15 points. This was a race she wasn't expected to win and I don't need some Minnesota Democrat to tell me otherwise about this district. Yeah, Gore won this district easily. What's your point? Do you not understand the ticket-splitting concept and the fact that Pennsylvania is known for that? Are you aware that Rendell won here by a huge margin yet Hoeffel only won by 4 points?

Ask Flyers what he thought when Schwartz was nominated. Ask him if his immediate thought was "Schwartz wins by 15." Actually, you can even ask him that a few days before Election Day. No one expected that big of a win, BRTD, so stop thinking you were "right" about this race. Now go on and tell us about how NJ 2 will be a big tossup when LoBiondo retires...
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2005, 03:08:32 am »
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BRTD, I was not expectin this much of a Schwartz landslide.  Also, after the night of the primary, I was worried about this district going GOP due to Schwartz beating Torsella.  Being from NE Philly I thought Torsella would be a more appealing candidate for us.  I knew I was pretty much voting Schwartz if she did win, but even I had doubts.  I could commend Brown for being vocal on Section 8 housing and it defintiely had me looking at her considering Joe Torsella, the other Dem in the 2004 primary took mention of it.  Schwartz did not and it had me worried.  Overall though, I could have never voted Brown though. 

Keystone, please I'm begging you get over the fact PA 13 and NE Philly is more left than you think it is.  Also, stop whining about Fogliani.  Brown was terrible, there was little Fogliani could do about it. 
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« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2005, 11:51:50 am »
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Phil, a 15 point victory is not a fluke. Schwartz ekes out a narrow win and you might have a point. But winning by 15 points? Are you denying my prediction on this race was better than your's?
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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2005, 01:07:25 pm »
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BRTD, I was not expectin this much of a Schwartz landslide.  Also, after the night of the primary, I was worried about this district going GOP due to Schwartz beating Torsella.  Being from NE Philly I thought Torsella would be a more appealing candidate for us.  I knew I was pretty much voting Schwartz if she did win, but even I had doubts.  I could commend Brown for being vocal on Section 8 housing and it defintiely had me looking at her considering Joe Torsella, the other Dem in the 2004 primary took mention of it.  Schwartz did not and it had me worried.  Overall though, I could have never voted Brown though. 

Keystone, please I'm begging you get over the fact PA 13 and NE Philly is more left than you think it is.  Also, stop whining about Fogliani.  Brown was terrible, there was little Fogliani could do about it. 

I can't whine about the terrible way the campaign was run but you can whine about how Boyle lost? Double standard is it not? I don't know how you could say Brown was terrible when she came within four points of beating an incumbent that many thought would have no trouble winning re-election in 2002.

PA 13 and NE Philly are not more left than I think. I understand that Montco is more liberal. I understand that NE Philly has many economically liberal voters. However, Brown was still more in touch with this district than Schwartz. Look where Schwartz is from, Flyers. She represents Chestnut Hill. She's by far more liberal than your average PA 13 voter. Remember, this is PA 13, not PA 2.
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2005, 01:08:53 pm »
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Phil, a 15 point victory is not a fluke. Schwartz ekes out a narrow win and you might have a point. But winning by 15 points? Are you denying my prediction on this race was better than your's?

Do you really think she's the model of PA 13? You obviously know very little about politics here. Even Flyers, who supported Schwartz, didn't expect that type of a victory. What don't you understand? Then you tell us about how NJ 2 will become a major swing district when LoBiondo is done. Get the point that you don't know the area as well as I do.
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2005, 01:30:49 pm »
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Phil, a 15 point victory is not a fluke. Schwartz ekes out a narrow win and you might have a point. But winning by 15 points? Are you denying my prediction on this race was better than your's?

Do you really think she's the model of PA 13? You obviously know very little about politics here. Even Flyers, who supported Schwartz, didn't expect that type of a victory. What don't you understand? Then you tell us about how NJ 2 will become a major swing district when LoBiondo is done. Get the point that you don't know the area as well as I do.

No I'm not saying she's a fine model of the district. Just that the district is far more Democratic than you're willing to admit. I was never really worried about losing this seat, and I was right. How can you say I have all the facts wrong when my prediction turned out to be rather accurate?

Now since Gore won NJ 2 by over 10 points how can it be a rock solid completely safe Republican district once LoBiondo leaves? Historical tradition? A fairly valid point, but Republicans also said the same things about NY 1 and 2.

You are really distorting what I said though, all I said was that the district was winnable for Democrats once LoBiondo retired. It's certainly no less winnable than CO 3.
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« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2005, 01:35:15 pm »
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Phil, a 15 point victory is not a fluke. Schwartz ekes out a narrow win and you might have a point. But winning by 15 points? Are you denying my prediction on this race was better than your's?

Do you really think she's the model of PA 13? You obviously know very little about politics here. Even Flyers, who supported Schwartz, didn't expect that type of a victory. What don't you understand? Then you tell us about how NJ 2 will become a major swing district when LoBiondo is done. Get the point that you don't know the area as well as I do.

No I'm not saying she's a fine model of the district. Just that the district is far more Democratic than you're willing to admit. I was never really worried about losing this seat, and I was right. How can you say I have all the facts wrong when my prediction turned out to be rather accurate?

Now since Gore won NJ 2 by over 10 points how can it be a rock solid completely safe Republican district once LoBiondo leaves? Historical tradition? A fairly valid point, but Republicans also said the same things about NY 1 and 2

The district does lean Dem but it's not as liberal as Flyers would like you to believe. You weren't right about anything. You based your predictions on Gore's support here in 2000. Why was it so close in 2002? Are you aware that we are known for splitting our ticket? The only fact you have is that Gore won here. That's it. You don't know this district. Look at what your fellow Dem said about the district. He was worried when Schwartz was nominated. Her victory was surprising and the margin of her victory would have been laughable back in May.

Now onto NJ 2. It's another pretty Republican district. Yes Gore won there but that doesn't decide the race. There are reasons why Democrats and Republicans laugh at your suggestion that NJ 2 will be a tossup. You don't know the district.
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« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2005, 01:40:07 pm »
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Phil, a 15 point victory is not a fluke. Schwartz ekes out a narrow win and you might have a point. But winning by 15 points? Are you denying my prediction on this race was better than your's?

Do you really think she's the model of PA 13? You obviously know very little about politics here. Even Flyers, who supported Schwartz, didn't expect that type of a victory. What don't you understand? Then you tell us about how NJ 2 will become a major swing district when LoBiondo is done. Get the point that you don't know the area as well as I do.

No I'm not saying she's a fine model of the district. Just that the district is far more Democratic than you're willing to admit. I was never really worried about losing this seat, and I was right. How can you say I have all the facts wrong when my prediction turned out to be rather accurate?

Now since Gore won NJ 2 by over 10 points how can it be a rock solid completely safe Republican district once LoBiondo leaves? Historical tradition? A fairly valid point, but Republicans also said the same things about NY 1 and 2

The district does lean Dem but it's not as liberal as Flyers would like you to believe. You weren't right about anything. You based your predictions on Gore's support here in 2000.

My point is that THERE IS NOT A SINGLE DISTRICT IN THE COUNTRY HELD BY A REPUBLICAN THAT GAVE GORE A HIGHER MARGIN OF VICTORY THAN THIS DISTRICT. Therefore to win Brown would have to pull off something no Republican in the country currently has. Only two districts came close (NY 27 and CT 2) and when the Republican incumbent retired in NY 27 this year, we picked it up.

Now onto NJ 2. It's another pretty Republican district. Yes Gore won there but that doesn't decide the race. There are reasons why Democrats and Republicans laugh at your suggestion that NJ 2 will be a tossup. You don't know the district.

more Republican than CO-3 or IL-8? Would you say an open NJ 2 seat is as safe Republican as say PA-19?
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2005, 01:44:19 pm »
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Phil, a 15 point victory is not a fluke. Schwartz ekes out a narrow win and you might have a point. But winning by 15 points? Are you denying my prediction on this race was better than your's?

Do you really think she's the model of PA 13? You obviously know very little about politics here. Even Flyers, who supported Schwartz, didn't expect that type of a victory. What don't you understand? Then you tell us about how NJ 2 will become a major swing district when LoBiondo is done. Get the point that you don't know the area as well as I do.

No I'm not saying she's a fine model of the district. Just that the district is far more Democratic than you're willing to admit. I was never really worried about losing this seat, and I was right. How can you say I have all the facts wrong when my prediction turned out to be rather accurate?

Now since Gore won NJ 2 by over 10 points how can it be a rock solid completely safe Republican district once LoBiondo leaves? Historical tradition? A fairly valid point, but Republicans also said the same things about NY 1 and 2

The district does lean Dem but it's not as liberal as Flyers would like you to believe. You weren't right about anything. You based your predictions on Gore's support here in 2000.

My point is that THERE IS NOT A SINGLE DISTRICT IN THE COUNTRY HELD BY A REPUBLICAN THAT GAVE GORE A HIGHER MARGIN OF VICTORY THAN THIS DISTRICT. Therefore to win Brown would have to pull off something no Republican in the country currently has. Only two districts came close (NY 27 and CT 2) and when the Republican incumbent retired in NY 27 this year, we picked it up.

Now onto NJ 2. It's another pretty Republican district. Yes Gore won there but that doesn't decide the race. There are reasons why Democrats and Republicans laugh at your suggestion that NJ 2 will be a tossup. You don't know the district.

more Republican than CO-3 or IL-8? Would you say an open NJ 2 seat is as safe Republican as say PA-19?

1) Brown didn't have that hard of a task in pulling off what no Republican in the country currently had back in '02. Four points was all she lost by. You take thos Gore vs. Bush numbers too seriously and in PA of all places, you shouldn't.

2) I wouldn't say an open NJ 2 is as safe as PA 19 but I would say that whoever the GOP nominee is will probably get around 58-60% of the vote.
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« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2005, 01:55:14 pm »
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I actually think that Brown losing by 4pts in 2002 was more fluke-ish than last year's result but...
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« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2005, 01:58:02 pm »
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I actually think that Brown losing by 4pts in 2002 was more fluke-ish than last year's result but...

She focused on the important issues up here. Wait and see Schwartz's voting record. She will have a record further to the left than your average PA 13 voter.
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« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2005, 02:02:18 pm »
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I actually think that Brown losing by 4pts in 2002 was more fluke-ish than last year's result but...

She focused on the important issues up here. Wait and see Schwartz's voting record. She will have a record further to the left than your average PA 13 voter.

Oh, I don't doubt for a minute that Schwartz is a lot more socially liberal than most voters in PA-13, although it has to be said that a lot (read: most) Reps tailor their voting record to something close-ish to their constituents.
Not really my point though... in 2002 the PA-13 numbers in Philly and Montgomery were about the same. That's a fluke, IMO.
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« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2005, 02:10:43 pm »
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I actually think that Brown losing by 4pts in 2002 was more fluke-ish than last year's result but...

She focused on the important issues up here. Wait and see Schwartz's voting record. She will have a record further to the left than your average PA 13 voter.
Not really my point though... in 2002 the PA-13 numbers in Philly and Montgomery were about the same. That's a fluke, IMO.

Odd how the percentages came out exactly the same but I don't think it's a fluke that she came so close.
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« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2005, 02:13:31 pm »
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I actually think that Brown losing by 4pts in 2002 was more fluke-ish than last year's result but...

She focused on the important issues up here. Wait and see Schwartz's voting record. She will have a record further to the left than your average PA 13 voter.

For the millionth time she whipped out Section 8 housing at the last second, an issue Borski nor any of the 4 (5 prior to 2000) Republican State Reps in NE Philly went nowhere near.  I think Al was right in saying that 4 points was a fluke.  That's why NE Philly was close in 2002.  Do you think people forgot about the issue in 2004?  Of course not!  We just exercised more common sense going into the booth this time and took ALL of the issues into consideration.  People in 2002 were not thinking about Bush's economy, etc. back then.  I've said it before and I'll say it again- Proof is in the pudding!
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« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2005, 02:19:34 pm »
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I actually think that Brown losing by 4pts in 2002 was more fluke-ish than last year's result but...

She focused on the important issues up here. Wait and see Schwartz's voting record. She will have a record further to the left than your average PA 13 voter.

For the millionth time she whipped out Section 8 housing at the last second, an issue Borski nor any of the 4 (5 prior to 2000) Republican State Reps in NE Philly went nowhere near.  I think Al was right in saying that 4 points was a fluke.  That's why NE Philly was close in 2002.  Do you think people forgot about the issue in 2004?  Of course not!  We just exercised more common sense going into the booth this time and took ALL of the issues into consideration.  People in 2002 were not thinking about Bush's economy, etc. back then.  I've said it before and I'll say it again- Proof is in the pudding!

She campaigned on it and that's a main reason why she came so close. People care about that issue. It wasn't emphasized this time and she lost NE Philly big because of that.

"Out of sight, out of mind" is what I say. Yes people know about the Section 8 problem. Yes they care deeply about it and want it fixed. However, when it's not emphasized, they don't think the candidates care about it.

Most people watched the ridiculous ads that Schwartz put up and said "Oh no. That Melissa Brown lady is sleazy. She's a negative campaigner." Yeah right Schwartz campaign. Do you know how many mailers I saw early on in this campaign that unfairly blasted Brown? Another big thing was straight Dem voting. If the big issues were stressed here, the straight Dem vote wouldn't have been as strong.
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« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2005, 06:21:13 pm »
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    Here is somthing more to throw in the mix. Why did Charles Dent, who won the open 15th CD in PA win by 20 points when the district probably voted for Kerry by a small margin?
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« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2005, 06:29:25 pm »
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The straight Dem vote is overrated...Montco voted for Specter.  Many RINOs and moderate Dems here voted Kerry/Specter/Schwartz.

As for Dent, he was up against a pretty weak opponent in Driscoll, even the Inquirer backed Dent.
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« Reply #24 on: January 20, 2005, 07:50:49 pm »
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The straight Dem vote is overrated...Montco voted for Specter.  Many RINOs and moderate Dems here voted Kerry/Specter/Schwartz.


Oh come on. Specter is a different situation. Democrats in this area love him. That doesn't count.

PA 15 votes Republican in most elections but like the rest of the state it is very partisan when it comes to national elections. I believe the final tally of Lehigh County (which makes up most of PA 15) was 51-49 yet look at the local races and Republicans pretty much control the area.
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