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Author Topic: IA-PPP: Rumors of Obama's decline there false  (Read 1062 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: May 08, 2012, 11:54:39 am »
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Full link.

"PPP's first general election poll of Iowa since last October really exemplifies how the Republican nomination process enhanced Barack Obama's chances at reelection. Last fall Obama led Romney only 46-42 there but now his lead is up to 10 points at 51-41, matching his 2008 margin of victory in the state."
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« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2012, 12:11:28 pm »
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Iowa's been weirdly under-polled since the primary, surprising when the last poll (that DMR poll from mid-February) had it as a state which was switching sides from 2008. You'd think that would have generated more interest than it has...
Glad to see more data, and also glad that data is more favorable to Obama!
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cope1989
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« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2012, 12:34:20 pm »
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Iowa is an enigma. It's full of corn and farmers, yet it has a distinctive democratic lean and doesn't seem to be trending to the right. What makes Iowa more liberal than other farming states?
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« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2012, 01:11:51 pm »
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Iowa is an enigma. It's full of corn and farmers, yet it has a distinctive democratic lean and doesn't seem to be trending to the right. What makes Iowa more liberal than other farming states?

This year? Romney.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2012, 01:14:15 pm »
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Iowa has much industry -- lots of farm equipment and meat processing.  Dairying is much like factory work, so expect dairy workers to think much like blue-collar workers in the automotive industry.  In contrast to states to its west it has little ranching activity. Demographics of Iowa are more like those of Minnesota or Wisconsin than like those of South Dakota, Nebraska, or Kansas.

To defeat President Obama in Iowa the Republican nominee will absolutely have to keep pounding him with incessant ads and frequent appearances that will cost the republican nominee dearly of opportunities better exploited elsewhere (like Ohio).
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ajb
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2012, 01:18:34 pm »
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Iowa has much industry -- lots of farm equipment and meat processing.  Dairying is much like factory work, so expect dairy workers to think much like blue-collar workers in the automotive industry.  In contrast to states to its west it has little ranching activity. Demographics of Iowa are more like those of Minnesota or Wisconsin than like those of South Dakota, Nebraska, or Kansas.

To defeat President Obama in Iowa the Republican nominee will absolutely have to keep pounding him with incessant ads and frequent appearances that will cost the republican nominee dearly of opportunities better exploited elsewhere (like Ohio).
IA has tracked WI in particular very closely over the past couple of decades at least. It doesn't have a big racially-diverse city like Milwaukee, but it also doesn't have big conservative suburban counties like Waukesha either, so it's kind of a wash. It's really the suburbs that make WI (and to a lesser extent, MN), competitive for the Republicans; the rural areas in both states aren't as Republican as one might think from other nearby states.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2012, 01:28:34 pm »
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Iowa is an enigma. It's full of corn and farmers, yet it has a distinctive democratic lean and doesn't seem to be trending to the right. What makes Iowa more liberal than other farming states?

This year? Romney.

Yeah:

"Romney meanwhile remains incredibly unpopular in Iowa with only 34% of voters rating him favorably to 56% with an unfavorable opinion. He used to have a decent amount of crossover appeal to Democrats with a 17/72 spread, but that's now worsened to 9/86. And with independents he's at an atrocious 28/59."
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2012, 02:00:07 pm »
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Though I must admit, krazen's post on the rising GOP registration in IA does have me very worried about Obama's prospects here Tongue
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greenforest32
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2012, 02:01:11 pm »
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Iowa is an enigma. It's full of corn and farmers, yet it has a distinctive democratic lean and doesn't seem to be trending to the right. What makes Iowa more liberal than other farming states?

I have an unfounded suspicion that purplish states flirting with renewable energy helps them slightly with Democrats. Iowa and wind power:



Think of the potential for Arizona and solar power!
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« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2012, 11:53:12 pm »
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Iowa is an enigma. It's full of corn and farmers, yet it has a distinctive democratic lean and doesn't seem to be trending to the right. What makes Iowa more liberal than other farming states?

Iowa is not understood well by people not from the Midwest. It's not some land of endless fields of corn. It has cities where the population actually lives, and while they aren't large enough to give rise to white flight and hordes of ugly suburban conservatism they are large enough to have a somewhat cosmopolitan and liberal culture. There's no reason to expect places like Des Moines, Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo and Davenport to vote Republican.

The whole movie Cedar Rapids is based on this thing, Ed Helms' character plays someone from rural small town Wisconsin who goes on a business trip to Cedar Rapids and is overwhelmed by the "big city" culture.
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opebo
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« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2012, 01:07:27 pm »
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Your absolutely right BRTD.  Would you believe my family used to holiday in Iowa once in a blue moon.  It is a very odd place rather than 'typical Midwest' - and kind of idyllic if your expectations are on the low side.  The only Missouri community which seems to me like it would remotely 'fit' in Iowa is Columbia, the home of the state university (and coincidentally a place that votes fairly narrowly but reliably Democratic).
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BRTD
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« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2012, 09:27:49 pm »
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Iowa isn't as moralistic as people tend to believe either, it's got strip clubs everywhere and you can play slots in the back of gas stations. I get the impression that the culture there (as well as southern Minnesota) is just too laid back to flip out over that type of nonsense.
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2012, 01:56:09 pm »
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Someone please add this to the database.
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