Can someone explain the PA13 thread?

[J. J.]

PA-13 has been, since 1992, one of the most contested districts in the US. 

1992 - Margolis-Mesvinsky(D) elected in what has traditionally Republican District; it's been GOP since the Civil War.  This marks the beginning of the "Southeast Slump," Republican registered Phila suburbs begin voting Democrat.

1993 - Margolis-Mesvinsky cast the deciding vote on Clinton's tax increases; in exchange, Clinton agrees to hold a town meeting on taxes in her district (he does).

1994 - In the "Gingrich Revolution," Jon Fox takes the seat.

1996 -  Fox holds on, against Hoeffel, by a margin of 84 votes!  This is the closest congressional race in the country that year.

1998 -  Hoeffel, against the impeachment background, defeats Fox.

2000 - PA goes Dem in the presidential election, largely because of the Southeast Slump, Hoeffel wins by less than 10 points.

2001 -  Redistricting, Borsky's (D) seat abollished, GOP NE Phila goes into this suburban district.

2002 -  The Southeast Slump in full effect as Rendell wins by holding the southeastern counties.  Hoeffel re-elected.

2004 -  Hoeffel runs for Senate, seat opened.

As can be seen, what happens in this district plays an important part in both state and national politics.  Unless Phila turnout drops, this district is the key to what happens in PA.

[J. J.]

In most statewide races from 1978 (at least) to 1992, I could make an argument that who would win PA depend on the number of Democrats who vote Republican in Southwestern PA. 

I now make the argument a Democrat winning PA depends on how many Republicans in the Phila suburbs vote for him.