Can someone explain the PA13 thread?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There is no way a district that voted for Gore more than any district in the country that is represented by a Republican was absolutely in the bag for a Republican.

I had always believed that district was far more Democratic-leaning than anyone gave it credit for. I was probably right, or Allyson Schwartz must be the best campaigner and politician on the planet to go from a race she had no chance in to win by 13 points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phil, a 15 point victory is not a fluke. Schwartz ekes out a narrow win and you might have a point. But winning by 15 points? Are you denying my prediction on this race was better than your's?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phil, a 15 point victory is not a fluke. Schwartz ekes out a narrow win and you might have a point. But winning by 15 points? Are you denying my prediction on this race was better than your's?

Do you really think she's the model of PA 13? You obviously know very little about politics here. Even Flyers, who supported Schwartz, didn't expect that type of a victory. What don't you understand? Then you tell us about how NJ 2 will become a major swing district when LoBiondo is done. Get the point that you don't know the area as well as I do.

No I'm not saying she's a fine model of the district. Just that the district is far more Democratic than you're willing to admit. I was never really worried about losing this seat, and I was right. How can you say I have all the facts wrong when my prediction turned out to be rather accurate?

Now since Gore won NJ 2 by over 10 points how can it be a rock solid completely safe Republican district once LoBiondo leaves? Historical tradition? A fairly valid point, but Republicans also said the same things about NY 1 and 2.

You are really distorting what I said though, all I said was that the district was winnable for Democrats once LoBiondo retired. It's certainly no less winnable than CO 3.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phil, a 15 point victory is not a fluke. Schwartz ekes out a narrow win and you might have a point. But winning by 15 points? Are you denying my prediction on this race was better than your's?

Do you really think she's the model of PA 13? You obviously know very little about politics here. Even Flyers, who supported Schwartz, didn't expect that type of a victory. What don't you understand? Then you tell us about how NJ 2 will become a major swing district when LoBiondo is done. Get the point that you don't know the area as well as I do.

No I'm not saying she's a fine model of the district. Just that the district is far more Democratic than you're willing to admit. I was never really worried about losing this seat, and I was right. How can you say I have all the facts wrong when my prediction turned out to be rather accurate?

Now since Gore won NJ 2 by over 10 points how can it be a rock solid completely safe Republican district once LoBiondo leaves? Historical tradition? A fairly valid point, but Republicans also said the same things about NY 1 and 2

The district does lean Dem but it's not as liberal as Flyers would like you to believe. You weren't right about anything. You based your predictions on Gore's support here in 2000.

My point is that THERE IS NOT A SINGLE DISTRICT IN THE COUNTRY HELD BY A REPUBLICAN THAT GAVE GORE A HIGHER MARGIN OF VICTORY THAN THIS DISTRICT. Therefore to win Brown would have to pull off something no Republican in the country currently has. Only two districts came close (NY 27 and CT 2) and when the Republican incumbent retired in NY 27 this year, we picked it up.

Now onto NJ 2. It's another pretty Republican district. Yes Gore won there but that doesn't decide the race. There are reasons why Democrats and Republicans laugh at your suggestion that NJ 2 will be a tossup. You don't know the district.

more Republican than CO-3 or IL-8? Would you say an open NJ 2 seat is as safe Republican as say PA-19?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It can't be a complete centrist district as it voted over 55% for Gore and almost certainly voted similarly for Kerry. That would make it a left center district. PA-15 or 7 would be centrist districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It voted almost 50/50 for both Gore and Kerry. Sounds centrist to me.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It voted almost 50/50 for both Gore and Kerry. Sounds centrist to me.

And you still refuse to accept that when it comes to national elections, voters in this state usually go with their party's nominee. You don't understand the people or the area, BRTD.

I saw the registration numbers for Montgomery county once. Republicans had an almost 2:1 advantage. Who won it?

I also ask why someone is who completely conservative would be an ultra-partisan Democrat who would vote for their party's nominee who they agree with on absolutely nothing just because they're a Democrat, and vice-versa for Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It voted almost 50/50 for both Gore and Kerry. Sounds centrist to me.

And you still refuse to accept that when it comes to national elections, voters in this state usually go with their party's nominee. You don't understand the people or the area, BRTD.

I saw the registration numbers for Montgomery county once. Republicans had an almost 2:1 advantage. Who won it?

I also ask why someone is who completely conservative would be an ultra-partisan Democrat who would vote for their party's nominee who they agree with on absolutely nothing just because they're a Democrat, and vice-versa for Republicans.

1) Kerry and Gore both won Montco. The area is trending Democrat. The Montco GOP, once considered one of the best in the nation, is falling apart. Montco has been an exception to the partisan voting idea. However, with the rest of the state it is clear, especially out in western PA.

2) Ask the voters themselves.

1) Like Westmoreland or Greene counties?

2) There is one PA person on this forum out of place with his party, that being bullmoose. And he did not vote for Bush.