Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[pbrower2a]

PPP/Project for a New America, Arizona: Obama down 3... and the Senate race is a tossup.  Mitt Romney absolutely can't win without Arizona, and President Obama can't win Arizona without  passing 360 or so electoral votes. The Senate race is bigger.

Arizona has demographics closer to those of Colorado or Nevada than to any other state (next-closest are California, Florida, New Mexico, and Texas which are all quite different), but is clearly more R than either. The Republican governor is highly unpopular, which will be no help. A state that has gone for the Democratic nominee for President only once since 1964 doing so in 2012 would be an unmitigated disaster for the GOP.  

I'm not showing the Elway poll for Washington (Obama up 8 ) because PPP will show Washington and I am likely to average the two.


 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[krazen1211]

You forgot to count Rasmussen in Wisconsin.

[pbrower2a]

You forgot to count Rasmussen in Wisconsin.

It is inconsistent with other polls, including Rasmussen polls, within a week.

[krazen1211]

You forgot to count Rasmussen in Wisconsin.

It is inconsistent with other polls, including Rasmussen polls, within a week.

Uh, what? Numerous polls during the recalls showed a close result. You just tossed them aside because you didn't like then.

Shrug.


How is it, anyway, that an 'inconsistent' NJ D+27 poll passed this filter?

Added polls:

Survey USA, NC (Obama up 4%)
Rasmussen, NV (Obama up 9%)
Rocky Mountain Poll, AZ (Obama up 2%)
PPP, Texas     (Romney up 7%)
Marquette Law School, WI (Obama up 9%)
PPP, NM (Obama up 14%)
...Democratic internal poll in ND rejected
University of New Hampshire, NH (Obama up 9%)
Rasmussen, MA (Obama up 11%)
Marist, NY (Obama up 22%)
Rutgers University, NJ (Obama up 27%)
Rasmussen, CO (Obama up 13%)
DePauw University, IN (Romney up 9%)
Epic/MRA, MI (Obama up 4%) -- marginally trustworthy
LA Times, USC, CA (Obama up 21%) 
Hendrix University, AR (Romney up 24%) -- right-wing school
Survey USA, OR (Obama up 11%)
Quinnipiac, CT (Obama up 16%)
PPP, MO -- tie
Nielsen Brothers, SD (Romney up 9%)

Two states splitting their electoral votes:
MPRC, Maine 55-37 Obama CD1: 61-33 Obama CD2: 48-41 Obama

PPP, Nebraska Romney up 12% statewide, up 1% in CD2




under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[morgieb]

You forgot to count Rasmussen in Wisconsin.

It is inconsistent with other polls, including Rasmussen polls, within a week.

Uh, what? Numerous polls during the recalls showed a close result. You just tossed them aside because you didn't like then.

Shrug.


How is it, anyway, that an 'inconsistent' NJ D+27 poll passed this filter?

Added polls:

Survey USA, NC (Obama up 4%)
Rasmussen, NV (Obama up 9%)
Rocky Mountain Poll, AZ (Obama up 2%)
PPP, Texas     (Romney up 7%)
Marquette Law School, WI (Obama up 9%)
PPP, NM (Obama up 14%)
...Democratic internal poll in ND rejected
University of New Hampshire, NH (Obama up 9%)
Rasmussen, MA (Obama up 11%)
Marist, NY (Obama up 22%)
Rutgers University, NJ (Obama up 27%)
Rasmussen, CO (Obama up 13%)
DePauw University, IN (Romney up 9%)
Epic/MRA, MI (Obama up 4%) -- marginally trustworthy
LA Times, USC, CA (Obama up 21%) 
Hendrix University, AR (Romney up 24%) -- right-wing school
Survey USA, OR (Obama up 11%)
Quinnipiac, CT (Obama up 16%)
PPP, MO -- tie
Nielsen Brothers, SD (Romney up 9%)

Two states splitting their electoral votes:
MPRC, Maine 55-37 Obama CD1: 61-33 Obama CD2: 48-41 Obama

PPP, Nebraska Romney up 12% statewide, up 1% in CD2




under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

Peter Browler's a hack. Don't bother.

[pbrower2a]

Nobody reasonably believes that President Obama is going to be close to losing New Jersey.

[krazen1211]

Nobody reasonably believes that President Obama is going to be close to losing New Jersey.

Nobody reasonably believes that he will win the state by 27%....except maybe you.

[pbrower2a]

Nobody reasonably believes that President Obama is going to be close to losing New Jersey.

Nobody reasonably believes that he will win the state by 27%....except maybe you.

My model does not distinguish between a 12% lead and a 40% lead which does not matter in a winner-take-all system. Note that it is possible for the President to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes and lose Arkansas and its 6 electoral votes by a larger margin and end up with 20 electoral votes. 

[pbrower2a]

We ask America (R) --

Obama up 1 in Iowa, down 2 in Michigan. Averaged with Rasmussen in Michigan, replaces old poll in Iowa.

 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

Montana, Rasmussen... Romney up 9. Washington, PPP... Obama up 13 (and even if averaged with the Elway poll it would still be Obama +10.5.

No new map needed.

[pbrower2a]

Marquette Law School, WI -- Obama up 6. The Rasmussen poll must have been an outlier.

 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

BIG ONE -- FLORIDA (Quinnipiac). Obama up 4. At the margin of error, but up 7 from the last Q poll, which is a huge shift. That could be the news cycle.  

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What, you thought that Mitt would actually do better in the NE than Santorum? Sucks to be you.

[pbrower2a]

NE -- Obama down 12, which is less than the 15% he lost the state by in 2008. If he were down by 16% I would have to assign all districts to Romney... but a 12% margin suggests that one of the districts is a pure toss-up.  That may be charitable to Romney.

NH -- Obama up only 5%, according to Rasmussen. This is consistent with Obama up 8% in Michigan.  

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

NE -- Obama down 12, which is less than the 15% he lost the state by in 2008. If he were down by 16% I would have to assign all districts to Romney... but a 12% margin suggests that one of the districts is a pure toss-up.  That may be charitable to Romney.

NH -- Obama up only 5%, according to Rasmussen. This is consistent with Obama up 8% in Michigan.  

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[krazen1211]

When is Michigan turning light blue?

Last 3 polls are tied, Obama +1, Romney +2.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Light blue is not a favourable colour for pbrower. You should know that.

[LiberalJunkie]

Light blue is not a favourable colour for pbrower. You should know that.

If u think romney's leading in Michigan ur nuts.

[pbrower2a]

OH, PPP -- Obama up 3
VA, Old Dominion -- Obama up 7
VA, We Ask America -- Obama down 5
UT, Dan Jones, Romney up about 40 (no surprise there)

"We Ask America" shows no crosstabs -- beware. 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Light blue is not a favourable colour for pbrower. You should know that.

If u think romney's leading in Michigan ur nuts.

This is a map based on polling, which has happened to show Romney doing very well in Michigan. Sorry bout ur readin comprehension.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Light blue is not a favourable colour for pbrower. You should know that.

If u think romney's leading in Michigan ur nuts.

This is a map based on polling, which has happened to show Romney doing very well in Michigan. Sorry bout ur readin comprehension.

Not exactly.
Junk pollsters and unknown pollsters show the race to be a toss-up. (Not "Romney doing very well.")
Respected pollsters PPP and Rasmussen show Obama leading handily.
Sorry bout ur wishful thinking.

[tmthforu94]

Going only off Atlas polling, this would be the map if the election was today:

So while Obama has an actual lead of 231 to 187, Romney would take a 269-263 lead. So based only on the polling average in each state, Romney would be elected President.

[Tender Branson]

Going only off Atlas polling, this would be the map if the election was today:

So while Obama has an actual lead of 231 to 187, Romney would take a 269-263 lead. So based only on the polling average in each state, Romney would be elected President.

MI, OH and FL are in the Obama column - as per recent polls from Rasmussen/PPP/Quinnipiac.

[tmthforu94]

Going only off Atlas polling, this would be the map if the election was today:

So while Obama has an actual lead of 231 to 187, Romney would take a 269-263 lead. So based only on the polling average in each state, Romney would be elected President.

MI, OH and FL are in the Obama column - as per recent polls from Rasmussen/PPP/Quinnipiac.

I'm just taking the three poll rolling average from this site. I'm just calculating what the map would be on this site with no tossups (other than Iowa, which is pure tossup on the polling map).

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Light blue is not a favourable colour for pbrower. You should know that.

If u think romney's leading in Michigan ur nuts.

This is a map based on polling, which has happened to show Romney doing very well in Michigan. Sorry bout ur readin comprehension.

Not exactly.
Junk pollsters and unknown pollsters show the race to be a toss-up. (Not "Romney doing very well.")
Respected pollsters PPP and Rasmussen show Obama leading handily.
Sorry bout ur wishful thinking.

A toss-up in Michigan means the GOP is doing very well, at least relative to recent results. Re: "junk polls," PPP has so far proven itself to be the epitome of junk. And when five other polls show virtually the same result, something more is going on.