Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[pbrower2a]

From the pollster that FoX News Channel goes to (Opinion Research?) when it wants accuracy:

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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/19/obama-has-edge-over-romney-in-three-battleground-states/#ixzz26yXrTMwN

Poll by the Hartford Courant, one of the oldest newspapers in America: Obama up 23 in Connecticut.  

No change in the map shades -- but apparently a disaster in the making.

Mitt Romney will not be President of the United States, barring some miracle on his behalf.

[pbrower2a]

Marist/NBC

CO: Obama 50%, Romney 45%;
IA: Obama 50%, Romney 42%;
WI: Obama 50%, Romney 45

NC, FoX-8, Greensboro

46-43 Obama

Their previous poll from end-August was the exact opposite: Romney+3

http://myfox8.com/2012/09/20/hpufox8-poll-obama-regains-edge-with-nc-voters

[pbrower2a]

I am not going to use the YouGov interactive polls. I do not accept interactive polls for these maps. Sure, I understand that those polls look valid. Not everyone has Internet access, and the people who vote in such polls might be vastly dissimilar to the electorate.  I might back down on this if I see a poll for such states that get polled rarely (Alaska, Hawaii, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, Rhode Island) but only for such states.  Beggars can't be choosers, you know.

[pbrower2a]

Neilsen, which got the last poll that I have for South Dakota, has Romney up in double digits.

Purple Strategies, AZ -- Romney up only 3.

[pbrower2a]

Omaha World Herald, Wiese  -- Nebraska. Romney up 11, NE-02 a tie (44-44), NE-01 no runaway.    

[Knives]

Can someone please tell me what the colours mean?

Also on this site, why do you use blue for republicans and red for dems?

[Tender Branson]

Can someone please tell me what the colours mean?

Also on this site, why do you use blue for republicans and red for dems?

Because this site is Naso-esque and uses the media party colours from the 80s.

[Thomas D]

Can someone please tell me what the colours mean?

Also on this site, why do you use blue for republicans and red for dems?

Dark red- Safe Obama
Red- Lean Obama
Pink- Barley Obama
Light blue- Barley Romney
Blue- Lean Romney
Dark Blue- Safe Romney
Green- Not enough info.

[minionofmidas]

Also on this site, why do you use blue for republicans and red for dems?

https://uselectionatlas.org/note.html

Also, of course, to any non-American observer the other way round doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Is there any other political party not at least arguably left of center that uses red for anything? Can't think of one.

[pbrower2a]

Can someone please tell me what the colours mean?

Also on this site, why do you use blue for republicans and red for dems?

"Red" used to mean Democrats and "Blue" used to mean Republicans. Because Leip logs elections going back to George Washington, a change from the traditional pattern could be confusing.

The map that I have shows reliable polling where it exists, with darker shades (more saturation) implying a stronger lead for Romney or Obama. White is for anything under 1%, the pale shades for 1% and 3% margins, medium shades for 4% to 9% margins, and a dark shade for anything over 10%.   4% is the usual margin of error, and 10% suggests that a state is out of reach. I do not distinguish anything beyond 10%.

Green is for those states that have no recent (that is, since February!) polls. For such states I am going with the performance in 2008. Except for South Carolina, all such states went for John McCain by more than 10%, and they are in dark green. South Carolina is in medium green.

I had orange for states that Barack Obama won in 2008 that had not been recently polled... and saturation represented how President Obama did in 2008. What remains of such states that President Obama had won that have not since been polled -- Delaware, Hawaii, and Rhode Island -- were overwhelming  victories for him in 2008 and will almost certainly be much the same in 2012. The dark orange color was incredibly ugly, so I replaced it with "no color" -- gray.

I do not use insider or interactive polls, or polls by advocacy groups (like Susquehanna Research in Pennsylvania) or by politicians themselves.

 

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Florida -- Obama up  50-46.
PPP, Colorado -- Obama up 51-45.
University of Cincinnati, Ohio : Obama 50-46.

"Brunhilda" prepares to sing even if the map does not change. 
 

[pbrower2a]

We Ask America, Wisconsin - Obama up 12.
Rasmussen, Michigan -- Obama up 12.

The Blue Firewall is hardening quickly. Those are R-friendly pollsters.
 

[/quote]

[5280]

Romney +10 in AZ

http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/09/21/arizona/

[pbrower2a]

FLORIDA

50-45 Obama

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/FL12.html

IOWA

51-44 Obama

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/IA12.html

NEVADA

51-44 Obama

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NV12.html

Choose your own metaphor. 

Civitas, North Carolina: Obama up 4. This pollster has given some big advantages to Romney most of the season. When this pollster gives the President a 4% lead... things are going bad for Romney.

YouGov: I do not use interactive polls.
 

[pbrower2a]

I have great news for Republicans to behold. A fringe pollster (right-wing Hendrix College) can give unqualified evidence that President Obama will lose Arkansas by 21%. Even if it is biased, by a factor of 3, that is a decisive lead.  

New Jersey, Monmouth: Obama up 15. The last time that New Jersey went for a Republican nominee was 1988. Republicans can win without it.

Nevada, PPP -- Obama up 9. That would be the borderline of competitiveness in July, but probably past that now.

Washington Post, Florida -- Obama up 4. Ohio, Obama up 8...  I'm tempted to say that when a candidate is up by more percentage points than there are weeks left, limit 5... it's over.  
 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Ohio ... Obama up 10. Florida, Obama up 9. Pennsylvania -- Obama up 12. Franklin and Marshall, Pennsylvania -- Obama up 9.

The two definitive swing states have swung far away from being close if you believe the two polls. Outliers? Not likely. Quinnipiac has been a fine pollster so far, and these polls may indicate that what recently was a close contest is no longer so. Horses can come up lame in horse races; baseball teams can have 10-run innings that change the character of the game. We may be seeing a 51-47 popular election becoming a 56-42 election, which happens when a nominee offends constituencies once assumed safe. 

As September approaches its end I begin to think that the difference between an 8-point lead and a 15-point lead is a quibble.       
 

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, PPP -- Obama up 7.
Gonzalez, Maryland -- Obama up 18.
Rasmussen, Massachusetts -- Obama up 15.

No need for a new map.

[pbrower2a]

Chilenski, Missouri. Registered voters: Romney up 6.

All recent polls are for likely voters, and I am unfamiliar with this pollster. I can;t use it. I expect more Missouri polls, in view of the Senate race.   

[5280]

pbrowser2a...make AZ blue again, lol

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=402012925016

[pbrower2a]

AZ, Rasmussen... Romney up 10.  
IN, Howey-Depauw... Romney up 12.
CT, PPP... Obama up over 10   
 

[pbrower2a]

Marist:

NV: Obama 49, Romney 47
NC: Obama 48, Romney 46
NH: Obama 51, Romney 44

NH is this poll only, and NC and NV polls are averaged with others.
 

[pbrower2a]

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/09/29/des-moines-register-iowa-poll-obama-leads-romney-by-4-points/article?nclick_check=1

49-45 Obama. No need for a new map, but the state is that important and has been polled little.

This thread is now closed. The difference between "up 8" and "up 11" is becoming less relevant. The new and more relevant map is now here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160426.msg3444040#msg3444040