Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[pbrower2a]

Delayed polls (family medical emergency):
 



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. (Wisconsin -- I am not showing anything until after the recall is over)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Q, Virginia, Obama up 5 with or without Bob McDonnell as the VP nominee:
 



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. (Wisconsin -- I am not showing anything until after the recall is over)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

We Ask America, Wisconsin, June 6 (day after the recall election): Obama up 5

Rasmussen, Colorado -- even.
 



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. (Wisconsin -- I am not showing anything until after the recall is over), and I am now showing polls. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

In case you are wondering about the EPIC-MPRI poll of Michigan... it has nothing to offer except wish-fulfillment for the people who think that FoX Newspeak Channel is objective information. 

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen, Missouri. 
 



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. (Wisconsin -- I am not showing anything until after the recall is over), and I am now showing polls. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.



[/quote]

[Jayhawker]

Do you just ignore polls from a while back, because I'm certain there has been polls in every green state except Idaho and Wyoming.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Georgia has been polled, but pbrower doesn't want to include it because it's unfavourable to his desired outcome.

[a Person]

Georgia has been polled, but pbrower doesn't want to include it because it's unfavourable to his desired outcome.

...which is why he included NC and OH.

[True Federalist]

Do you just ignore polls from a while back, because I'm certain there has been polls in every green state except Idaho and Wyoming.

This is roughly just the polls since Santorum through in the towel and it became a two person race.

[krazen1211]

He forgot to include the latest Purple Poll for Florida.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Romney has led in Georgia by double digits in at least 2 polls.

One GOP-connected polls that get little respect, and the other is too old for inclusion here.
 

That, to me, is subjective and biased. I'm just calling it how I see it.

[True Federalist]

On the subject of Georgia, the atlas database lists exactly one poll that has been done there since the start of May, and that was registered voter poll by a company for which we have no other polls to compare with to see if it is any good.  It's not as if pbrower's map is showing that Georgia is in any danger of falling into Obama's column.  Pretty much any state that shows up in green or orange can be considered so safe no one is bothering to poll them now.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Georgia has been polled, but pbrower doesn't want to include it because it's unfavourable to his desired outcome.

Then why isn't South Carolina included?

[pbrower2a]

Do you just ignore polls from a while back, because I'm certain there has been polls in every green state except Idaho and Wyoming.

Yes. I am showing nothing from before March, and I forget what cut-off I use. It's safe to assume that until one finds out otherwise any state in deep green is not going for President Obama (although Texas and Tennessee have had some tantalizing polls).

I do not use polls commissioned by any campaign or special interest. That's why I reject EPIC-MPRI in Michigan. If someone got a poll from the NAACP showing that Georgia was going for President Obama, would I use it? (The NAACP apparently does no polling).

I have been accepting Rasmussen. 

[AmericanNation]

Fixed it.

[pbrower2a]

Mason-Dixon, North Dakota -- Romney up 13. Florida -- Purple Strategies, PPP averaged
 



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, Rasmussen : Obama up 8 with a "likely voters" screen. Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania: Obama up 6. PPP, Nevada: Obama up 6.




under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[kingthlayer]

Which poll are you using for Wisconsin? The latest one I saw was the junk poll from Rasmussen that showed Romney up.

[pbrower2a]

Which poll are you using for Wisconsin? The latest one I saw was the junk poll from Rasmussen that showed Romney up.

We Ask America, Wisconsin, June 6

I hadn't been showing polls for Wisconsin because of the then-current recall election. The Rasmussen poll is junk; Wisconsin is not 11 points more R than Michigan.

[pbrower2a]

Maine, WBUR Radio (NPR, Boston University, Boston MA -- likely voters)... President Obama up 14. It is safe to say at this point that unless something drastic happens, President Obama wins everything northeast of the Potomac decisively. Maine (unlike Nebraska)  is homogeneous enough that NE-02 is "Safe Obama".

http://www.wbur.org/2012/06/18/wbur-maine-poll



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[big bad fab]

There are polls on Georgia and it doesn't seem that it's a viable goal for Obama any longer:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

[pbrower2a]

There are polls on Georgia and it doesn't seem that it's a viable goal for Obama any longer:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

At the least a non-target. There is no Senate seat up for grabs. Arizona and Indiana are both far more attractive places for the Obama campaign because of open Senate seats.

[big bad fab]

My remark was also that GA should be in blue. Or I have misread your colour code ?

[pbrower2a]

My remark was also that GA should be in blue. Or I have misread your colour code ?

I'm not familiar with Insider Advantage or landmark polls. The Survey USA poll is too old to be included in this mix.

The green indicates that there are no reliable recent polls, but that President Obama lost the state. Georgia would be deep blue if I accepted one of those two polls by unfamiliar organizations.   

[pbrower2a]

PPP. Colorado -- Obama up 49-42.

About a third of the interviews for this poll were conducted prior to Obama's immigration announcement so it would be simplistic to ascribe those shifts to that, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

President Obama is still up 2 among whites.

Comment: this may have sealed the President's re-election. Those most immediately affected might not be voting, but those close to them will often be voting.



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.