Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[BigSkyBob]

Needle to be withdrawn from arm!

Today is the last day for meaningful pols until a few days after the Olympics.

Obama behind 5 points in Rasmussen polls. What a bad number to freeze for over two weeks!

Rasmussen reports LV which is more accurate than registered voters too. At this point those who are likely to vote would vote that way.

For some reason, Gallup didn't release numbers today at noon. The data will be dumped at the start of Olympic coverage. I wonder why?

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

Needle to be withdrawn from arm!

Today is the last day for meaningful pols until a few days after the Olympics.

Obama behind 5 points in Rasmussen polls. What a bad number to freeze for over two weeks!

Rasmussen reports LV which is more accurate than registered voters too. At this point those who are likely to vote would vote that way.

For some reason, Gallup didn't release numbers today at noon. The data will be dumped at the start of Olympic coverage. I wonder why?

Maybe that's precisely why. They're waiting for a better time to release information. There won't be a reliable poll until the middle of August now.

[pbrower2a]

Just enjoy the Games. Let it be a respite.

[Vosem]

Beyond any question, George W. Bush makes President Obama look great by contrast.

How many times do I have to point out that polling shows that as of early 2012 George W. Bush has a better approval rating than Barack Obama?

Politics is marketing... but for good reason Ford Motor Company gave up on the Edsel within two years. The GOP needs a new product.   

Not really. Their product was very successful in 2010, and it seems more likely than not they'll gain the Senate in 2012, although admittedly Obama is favored for reelection to the Presidency.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Florida: Obama up 1.

Rasmussen, Wisconsin: Obama up 3.

Quinnipiac -- three states:

FL: 51-45 Obama
OH: 50-44 Obama
PA: 53-42 Obama

Since when does Quinnipiac give stronger results for the President than does PPP? Both are now "Likely Voters" models. I can average P and Q on that one.

According to Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania is now on the fringe of competitiveness and Ohio is Likely D. Even if one averages Florida... it is almost on the margin of error. I cannot say "Romney collapse" yet.

 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- Last poll discredited (like anything from We Ask America)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

* Wisconsin -- about a 6% margin (40% saturation) if Mitt Romney chooses anyone other than Paul Ryan.

[Incipimus iterum]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/poll-obama-leads-romney-in-three-swing-states-130728.html?hp=l5
Poll: Obama leads Romney in 3 swing states: politico

[pbrower2a]

NC, Rasmussen: Romney up 5.
Someone else -- AL, Romney up 25.
CT, PPP -- Obama up 8.
 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- Last poll discredited (like anything from We Ask America)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

* Wisconsin -- about a 6% margin (40% saturation) if Mitt Romney chooses anyone other than Paul Ryan.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You made a mistake on CT

[pbrower2a]

You made a mistake on CT

Corrected.

[krazen1211]

How exactly is Virginia colored that way given that the last 3 polls are  D+1, tie, D+2?

[pbrower2a]

How exactly is Virginia colored that way given that the last 3 polls are  D+1, tie, D+2?

I checked the most recent polls on Virginia -- and you are right. Marginal Obama.

Rasmussen (usually tolerable) just gave the results of an on-line poll for Indiana. Romney is up 16.

Oh -- but it is on-line. I do not accept any on-line poll from any source, as they are too easily manipulated.  President Obama is not going to win Indiana again except in a Romney collapse, but the state is not 20% more R than Ohio or 25% more R than Michigan or Pennsylvania. 

 

[pbrower2a]

Fresh poll for Virginia from an entity known as Capital Marketing. Virginia, Obama +4. Up by the margin of error. Senator Allen is up on Kaine... maybe George Allen isn;t making the same mistakes that he did in 2008.

  

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Colorado:  Obama up 6. Rasmussen, same state: tie. 
PPP, North Carolina: Obama up 3.

  

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Colorado -- Romney up 5 (averaged with PPP and Rasmussesn -- basically a tie)
Rasmussen, Wisconsin -- Obama up 6
Rasmussen and Quinnipiac -- small leads for Obama

(CO looks like an inversion, but Quinnipiac corrects those fast).

  

[pbrower2a]

Metro Washington DC (WTOP, CBS-9, Washington DC)

Editor's Note: The D.C. metro phone survey was conducted among 550 adults age 18 and over, between July 26 and July 29, 2012.

This included representative samples of 200 people in Virginia (Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford) 250 in Maryland (Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George's and 100 in D.C.

DC: 83-11 Obama

MD: 65-22 Obama

NoVa: 48-46 Obama

  
Incomplete polls for Maryland and Virginia, so I can't use those. But DC -- I finally get to fill in a square. 

[Oldiesfreak1854]

As usual --

White... tied.

Results of 2008 are shown here with results 'yellowed'.

under 4%  light
4.01- 9.99% medium
10% dark

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll. I am using only the 60% shading for orange because 70% orange is an ugly color.

These are the 2008 results. Current polls will be shown in blue (Republican) or red (Democratic) in subsequent posts.  As you can see, orange does not show up for the two districts of Maine that President Obama won by whopping margins or NE-01 which he barely won. NE-03 and NE-03, which John McCain won handily, show up deep green.  

(I reduced the green shades and got the Dakotas right below).


PPP had polls for Iowa and Ohio today, and neither shows cause for the comfort of Mitt Romney.  In Iowa, the President is up 10%; in Ohio he is up 7% Orange goes red in these two cases. For a state on the other side of this divide, consider a recent PPP poll for Montana in which Mitt Romney has a lead.

Yeah, but PPP polls have been producing huge outliers for Democrats.  The notion that Obama leads by 10 points in Iowa and 7 in Ohio is ludicrous.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

As usual --

White... tied.

Results of 2008 are shown here with results 'yellowed'.

under 4%  light
4.01- 9.99% medium
10% dark

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll. I am using only the 60% shading for orange because 70% orange is an ugly color.

These are the 2008 results. Current polls will be shown in blue (Republican) or red (Democratic) in subsequent posts.  As you can see, orange does not show up for the two districts of Maine that President Obama won by whopping margins or NE-01 which he barely won. NE-03 and NE-03, which John McCain won handily, show up deep green.  

(I reduced the green shades and got the Dakotas right below).


PPP had polls for Iowa and Ohio today, and neither shows cause for the comfort of Mitt Romney.  In Iowa, the President is up 10%; in Ohio he is up 7% Orange goes red in these two cases. For a state on the other side of this divide, consider a recent PPP poll for Montana in which Mitt Romney has a lead.

Yeah, but PPP polls have been producing huge outliers for Democrats.  The notion that Obama leads by 10 points in Iowa and 7 in Ohio is ludicrous.

...Not really. Also, that was from May. This is August.

[pbrower2a]

Two that I find hard to believe:

Iowa, Rasmussen -- Romney up 2
Missouri, SurveyUSA -- Romney up 2.

  

[pbrower2a]

University of New Hampshire, New Hampshire

(What -- were you expecting Louisiana?)  -- Obama up 3.

Ohio -- Rasmussen... Ohio tied. PPP, Obama up 3. Averaged.

  

[pbrower2a]

PPP. New Hampshire. This poll may be contaminated because some of it is taken before the Ryan pick and some afterwards. Such as it is I average it with the university poll:

I'm not going to say what effect I expect from the Ryan pick in polls. Outliers one way or the other will test our patience. We shall soon see what is a blunder manifesting itself in an electoral disaster, a brilliant stratagem, or basically no effect at all.

[pbrower2a]

ME -- Obama up 15 in a poll by an R pollster. Maine is out of reach for Republicans now except in 400-EV landslides.

http://agreetodisagree.bangordailynews.com/2012/08/14/maine-politics/poll-shows-kings-numbers-slipping

[pbrower2a]

I'm not using the Purple Poll (no crosstabs, and no record) or the interactive Zogby polls for either Florida or North Carolina (a hint: they look good for the President).

I don't know much about this pollster, but Oklahoma doesn't get polled often. Reason:

Romney 58, Obama 29.

It was roughly 65-35 for John McCain in 2008. The state probably has enough Hispanics to prevent anything like the 74-24 split in 1972.

That's 13% undecided, and an even split of those probably gives another 65-35 split of the vote.

No need for a new map. 

[krazen1211]

About 4 states need to go blue based on the latest polls. The latest colorado and wisconsin polls from Graves Marketing, PPP, and Rasmussed have Romney in the lead.

2 more would go blue if you didn't selectively discard the purple poll for having the same attributes as other used polls.

[pbrower2a]

About 4 states need to go blue based on the latest polls. The latest colorado and wisconsin polls from Graves Marketing, PPP, and Rasmussed have Romney in the lead.

2 more would go blue if you didn't selectively discard the purple poll for having the same attributes as other used polls.

Wisconsin -- now averaged. Just because one poll appears on Thursday and another on Wednesday does not mean that one picks the Thursday poll. Colorado was averaged into a tie.

There is one in Florida that shows Romney/Ryan up 14.... Something like that is either a new pollster not getting things right at first or a partisan pollster. Mitchell in Michigan has been shown to have problems.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Romney's up in VA and OH.