Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[krazen1211]

About 4 states need to go blue based on the latest polls. The latest colorado and wisconsin polls from Graves Marketing, PPP, and Rasmussed have Romney in the lead.

2 more would go blue if you didn't selectively discard the purple poll for having the same attributes as other used polls.

Wisconsin -- now averaged. Just because one poll appears on Thursday and another on Wednesday does not mean that one picks the Thursday poll. Colorado was averaged into a tie.

There is one in Florida that shows Romney/Ryan up 14.... Something like that is either a new pollster not getting things right at first or a partisan pollster. Mitchell in Michigan has been shown to have problems.

Tomorrow's PPP poll shows Romney in the lead. I'd figure one would average the PPP and rasmussen polls both showing Romney in the lead as both are LV polls and superior to an RV poll.

I'm curious how 'Capital Markets' provides an adequate Virginia Poll while 'Purple Poll' does not.

[kingthlayer]

Hey krazen, hacks in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin, PPP -- Romney up 1 in a R+2 sample uncharacteristic of the state. Paul Ryan must have some favorite-son effect for now. Will that last? Who knows! Until then the bare edge goes to Romney.

Virginia, PPP:

Obama 50
Romney 42
Goode 4

Reality -- Goode probably takes some conservative votes, mostly from Romney. He is a good cultural fit to Appalachia, recently a good area for Republicans getting votes. Obama up 8 is unlikely to stick. But look what I show in Wisconsin.

New York, Siena, Obama 62-Romney 29. I have no category for near-30 gaps; I don't distinguish those from +10 gaps.

Georgia -- an odd new poll shows Romney and Obama tied among registered voters and up 2 among 'likely voters'. Georgia was in contention this time four years ago. This is a shocker... until you see some of the early polls of Tennessee. Except for the Atlanta metro area, northern Georgia is probably much like Virginia, and Virgil Goode could make the state something not so 'peachy' for his electoral chances.

[krazen1211]

Interesting. If pbrower2a did not arbitrarily exclude some polls, Romneymentum has just won 269 electoral votes.

[5280/East California]

Interesting. If pbrower2a did not arbitrarily exclude some polls, Romneymentum has just won 269 electoral votes.

Shouldn't there be a Romney +1 added to CO?  It would be light blue.

[pbrower2a]

Interesting. If pbrower2a did not arbitrarily exclude some polls, Romneymentum has just won 269 electoral votes.

Do you mean the ludicrous polls in which Romney leads by 4 in Michigan and 14 in Florida? That pollster could probably show a poll that shows President Obama losing Connecticut or New Jersey.

Colorado is averaged between at least two polls.

[renegadedemocrat]

I have to wait for a credible poll source to come out because I obviously don't trust the Purple Strategies polls and don't trust Rasmussen either.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen, Montana -- Romney up 17.
Rasmussen, New Mexico -- Obama up 14.

SurveyUSA, Nevada -- Obama up 2.
Marquette, WI -- Obama up 3 (averaged with PPP, and that is Obama +1 as an average)
Gravis, Florida -- Romney up 3 (don't like it? There will be plenty of Florida polls)

Alabama, Capital Surveys -- Romney up 17 (no cause for dispute)
Washington, Moore Information (R) -- Obama up 10 (likewise)

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac/NYT:

Florida:

Obama: 49

Romney: 46

Don't Know: 5

Ohio:

Obama: 50

Romney: 44

Don't Know: 4

Wisconsin:

Obama:49

Romney: 47

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/23/us/politics/23poll-docs.html

Quinnipiac is probably more trustworthy on the states that it polls than is any other pollster. 

Don't Know: 3

Castleton, VT -- Obama up 37 (my system does not distinguish anything above 10%)

Florida and Wisconsin are averaged. I trust Quinnipiac of Florida more than I trust Gravis...but rules are rules. All in all, the Romney/Ryan campaign has its work cut out.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Missouri: Rumors of the chance of President Obama being close to winning the state are premature at best.

Muhlenberg, PA -- Obama up 9 in the Keystone State.   

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Rasmussen -- tie. Average with a recent poll.
Missouri, Rasmussen -- Obama up 1. This is not the way I ordinarily do things, but I see the bungled statement by the Republican Senate nominee making the more recent PPP poll obsolete. Averaged with two earlier polls here and PPP ignored. 
Colorado -- Obama up 4.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Inquirer -- Obama up 9. Corroborates an earlier poll -- exactly.
Massachusetts, new pollster -- Obama up 11. No surprise.
Missouri, Mason-Dixon, Romney up 7. Figure that it is about Romney+4
Michigan, Glengarriff -- Obama up high single-digits (I missed this one)
 

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

[pbrower2a]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Inquirer -- Obama up 9. Corroborates an earlier poll -- exactly.
Massachusetts, new pollster -- Obama up 11. No surprise.
Missouri, Mason-Dixon, Romney up 7. Figure that it is about Romney+4
Michigan, Glengarriff -- Obama up high single-digits (I missed this one)
 

I concur. Strange things are going on in Missouri, and polling there is like asking about wind direction in a hurricane.

It's hard to believe that a Senate nominee could throw the state's overall election. 

[True Federalist]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Why?  It's fairly clear by now that Akin's gaffe is not having much of an effect beyond his own race.  If this were a Senate polling thread, I could maybe see it, but not for this thread.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Why?  It's fairly clear by now that Akin's gaffe is not having much of an effect beyond his own race.  If this were a Senate polling thread, I could maybe see it, but not for this thread.

The polling's been varying wildly on the presidential leve.

[Clinton1996]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Why?  It's fairly clear by now that Akin's gaffe is not having much of an effect beyond his own race.  If this were a Senate polling thread, I could maybe see it, but not for this thread.

The polling's been varying wildly on the presidential leve.

I think the Mason-Dixon Poll having Romney up 7 was correct, and it corroborates PPP's Monday poll having Romney up 10. Missouri is Blue.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Why?  It's fairly clear by now that Akin's gaffe is not having much of an effect beyond his own race.  If this were a Senate polling thread, I could maybe see it, but not for this thread.

The polling's been varying wildly on the presidential leve.

I think the Mason-Dixon Poll having Romney up 7 was correct, and it corroborates PPP's Monday poll having Romney up 10. Missouri is Blue.

However, there are also several polls showing the race as a toss-up.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, two polls (Survey USA an exact tie, Time/CNN --Romney up 1); CNN/Time in Florida: Obama up 4. Less than 1 is a tie.

PPP will have Iowa tomorrow.
 

[renegadedemocrat]

Missouri will fluctuate for a while, but I believe that it will be in the Republican column come November. I'm very curious to see the new Iowa poll, since there hasn't been one after the VP pick.

[True Federalist]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Why?  It's fairly clear by now that Akin's gaffe is not having much of an effect beyond his own race.  If this were a Senate polling thread, I could maybe see it, but not for this thread.

The polling's been varying wildly on the presidential level.

I think the Mason-Dixon Poll having Romney up 7 was correct, and it corroborates PPP's Monday poll having Romney up 10. Missouri is Blue.

However, there are also several polls showing the race as a toss-up.

The Rasmussen poll was likely Dem heavy so as to produce a poll that would hopefully get Akin to quit, and the Survey USA poll also had a pronounced Dem tilt. (and a heavy youth tilt).  The other recent poll to show a tossup was by a newbie polling company with no track record.   There's uncertainty over whether Romney is over or under +10% in Missouri (probably under), but none whatsoever as to whether he is over +4%.

[pbrower2a]

If they Obama campaign can get out the youth vote then the election will be a Democratic landslide -- a reverse of the 2010 wave except that the Senate will stay much the same on the net. There just are few opportunities for D pickups in the Senate. 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, CT -- Obama up 7.
PPP, Iowa -- Obama up 2. This is without any talk of ethanol subsidies.

This is about what one expects when Missouri is up in the air, but likely R.
 

[True Federalist]

If they Obama campaign can get out the youth vote then the election will be a Democratic landslide -- a reverse of the 2010 wave except that the Senate will stay much the same on the net. There just are few opportunities for D pickups in the Senate. 

PB, SUSA's crosstabs for their last Missouri poll require not only a massive youth vote over and above what was seen in 2008, they also require the 65+ crowd stay home and not vote.  There never was a credible poll that showed Missouri close since the Akin gaffe, not one.

[pbrower2a]

If they Obama campaign can get out the youth vote then the election will be a Democratic landslide -- a reverse of the 2010 wave except that the Senate will stay much the same on the net. There just are few opportunities for D pickups in the Senate. 

PB, SUSA's crosstabs for their last Missouri poll require not only a massive youth vote over and above what was seen in 2008, they also require the 65+ crowd stay home and not vote.  There never was a credible poll that showed Missouri close since the Akin gaffe, not one.

There will be more polls. When I see credible pollsters ranging from D+1 to R+10  within a week, then no poll can be trusted.

Let things cool off a bit in Missouri and I WILL replace the yellow shade.