Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[pbrower2a]

Blank map.

As usual --

White... tied.

Results of 2008 are shown here with results 'yellowed'.

under 4%  light
4.01- 9.99% medium
10% dark

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll. I am using only the 60% shading for orange because 70% orange is an ugly color.

These are the 2008 results. Current polls will be shown in blue (Republican) or red (Democratic) in subsequent posts.  As you can see, orange does not show up for the two districts of Maine that President Obama won by whopping margins or NE-01 which he barely won. NE-03 and NE-03, which John McCain won handily, shop up deep green.   

[pbrower2a]

As usual --

White... tied.

Results of 2008 are shown here with results 'yellowed'.

under 4%  light
4.01- 9.99% medium
10% dark

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll. I am using only the 60% shading for orange because 70% orange is an ugly color.

These are the 2008 results. Current polls will be shown in blue (Republican) or red (Democratic) in subsequent posts.  As you can see, orange does not show up for the two districts of Maine that President Obama won by whopping margins or NE-01 which he barely won. NE-03 and NE-03, which John McCain won handily, show up deep green.  

(I reduced the green shades and got the Dakotas right below).


PPP had polls for Iowa and Ohio today, and neither shows cause for the comfort of Mitt Romney.  In Iowa, the President is up 10%; in Ohio he is up 7% Orange goes red in these two cases. For a state on the other side of this divide, consider a recent PPP poll for Montana in which Mitt Romney has a lead.

[pbrower2a]

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

Add in Quinnipiac polls from last week for Pennsylvania and Florida (the one for Ohio has been superseded):

[pbrower2a]

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

Here is a possible troublemaker. Last week a PPP poll showed President Obama winning by 8% if the choice were between Obama and Romney but 12% if a well-known Virginia politician (Virgil Goode) appears as a third-party alternative who would take many right-leaning votes but little from President Obama. If one shows a ternary division of the vote in Virginia, for which I could make a strong case, then  

But -- a couple of days later the Washington Post had a poll showing only a binary (Obama-Romney) selection in which President Obama is up by 'only' 7%.  It's still not what Republicans would like to see, but it isn't as ominous:

The later poll usually prevails.

[pbrower2a]

Added polls:

Survey USA, NC (Obama up 4%)
Rasmussen, NV (Obama up 9%)
Rocky Mountain Poll, AZ (Obama up 2%)
PPP, Texas     (Romney up 7%)
Marquette Law School, WI (Obama up 9%)
PPP, NM (Obama up 14%)
...Democratic internal poll in ND rejected
University of New Hampshire, NH (Obama up 9%)
Rasmussen, MA (Obama up 11%)
Marist, NY (Obama up 22%)
Rutgers University, NJ (Obama up 27%)
Rasmussen, CO (Obama up 13%)
DePauw University, IN (Romney up 9%)
Epic/MRA, MI (Obama up 4%) -- marginally trustworthy
LA Times, USC, CA (Obama up 21%) 
Hendrix University, AR (Romney up 24%) -- right-wing school
Survey USA, OR (Obama up 11%)
Quinnipiac, CT (Obama up 16%)
PPP, MO -- tie
Nielsen Brothers, SD (Romney up 9%)

Two states splitting their electoral votes:
MPRC, Maine 55-37 Obama CD1: 61-33 Obama CD2: 48-41 Obama

PPP, Nebraska Romney up 12% statewide, up 1% in CD2

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Polls by Rasmussen in Massachusetts and Fairleigh-Dickinson University in New Jersey show no obvious change in the basic reality. 

[pbrower2a]

Suffolk, FL -- Florida switches, but I would not make anything of a shift between being down 1 and being up 1 except on Election Day.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

We have a plethora of weird polls today.

[pbrower2a]

Survey USA has a poll on Oregon showing the President up 4 there, which I might accept, except that  the first question is about the choice in the Republican primary. It is easy to understand why such a poll might cause Democrats to disconnect. 

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/KING-5-Poll-Washington-still-blue-but-voters-split-on-Obama-approval-151000375.html

Same pollster, but no such methodological problem.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Survey USA has a poll on Oregon showing the President up 4 there, which I might accept, except that  the first question is about the choice in the Republican primary. It is easy to understand why such a poll might cause Democrats to disconnect.  

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/KING-5-Poll-Washington-still-blue-but-voters-split-on-Obama-approval-151000375.html

Same pollster, but no such methodological problem.

I don't know this pollster, but I can't see anything too blatant:

http://www.kjonline.com/news/poll-mainers-not-so-down-on-romney_2012-05-11.html

This one is by a blatant R pollster (GA) and not worthy of use:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/poll-shows-most-georgians-are-opposed-gay-marriage/nN4Z8/

New pollster, spurious decimal points, and not too far off (MI):

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120511/POLITICS01/205110457/Poll-Obama-leads-Romney-Michigan (45-39). President Obama will do better in Michigan once the unions kick off their voter drives. Democrats have a winner if they can at least get civil unions on the ballot, but they have to kick out the tea-party types who won in 2010 first.  

This is a likely-voter model more applicable to most special elections (if the Wisconsin recall election can be seen as the usual sort of special election, which leaves one cause for doubt)  than to a Presidential election:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president

and really can't be used. But even if I used it it would not change the category for Wisconsin.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Good news for Republicans: Romney is now up 2 on a Mehlman poll, up from a 1-point margin earlier.

Bad news for Republicans:

1. President Obama almost certainly wins if Missouri is that close.

2. Senator McCaskill is likely to win re-election there.  

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

SO MANY COLORS, MY BRAIN HURTS

The green and orange shades will eventually go as states fill in with relevant polls. I really dislike the dark orange, but I have it there so I can quickly transform it into deep red or even medium red.

[pbrower2a]

Here goes one of the larger remaining chunks of ugly dark  orange:

SUSA, MN:

In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

52-38 Obama

Not that this changes anything:

Siena, NY:

57-37 Obama

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20May%202012%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

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under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Strictly for aesthetic reasons I am going to turn  the ugly dark orange color to the non-color gray:

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac shows the President up 10 in New Jersey. Are some of the max-out states slipping a little while those closer to the middle are fairly steady? That could be. No new map.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen, North Carolina, "likely voters" screen. PPP will release its results for North Carolina soon, anyway, so don't expect this one to last.

President Obama loses a raft of states that he won in 2008 if the electorate of the 2010 electorate is like that of 2010.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

One-point margin in NC according to PPP. Whom do you want to believe?

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Now for the count:

Obama 10%+         203
Obama 4-9.9%         97
Obama < 4%            55

Exact tie                     0


Romney < 4%           11
Romney 4-9.9%        83
Romney 10%+          95          

Don't expect to see this count often.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin surprises me. Yesterday PPP had Obama ahead by just 1% and today a university poll has the race tied. Sure Wisconsin wasn't a given for Obama, but I didn't expect it to be this close at this point.

I have heard that the GOP is running a fear campaign... and that people may fear that pollsters are often fakes spying on the political preferences of Wisconsin voters to determine which ones can have even more to fear after employers find out who opposes Scott Walker. Even if private employers have no statutory right to fire people for their political expressions off the job, they can make life miserable.

Sure, it is mostly word-of-mouth, but for many people who know what is expected of them the 'safe' response to any pollster is "I stand for Scott Walker!" What they do in the voting booth may be vastly different.

At this point I am tempted to disqualify any Wisconsin poll due to the weird political climate. 

[pbrower2a]

For now until the recall process involving Governor Scott Walker is over and political life in Wisconsin returns to some semblance of normality I hereby disqualify all polls involving the State of Wisconsin. Yellow should be treated as a caution sign.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

After the freakish recall election involving Scott Walker is over there will be plentiful polls of Wisconsin. Just wait a month or so. Then Wisconsin will be like other states instead of the focus of political attention by everyone with an axe to grind..

 

[pbrower2a]

Counter-intuitive poll in Tennessee.  It does come from a well-respected university (Vanderbilt), and we get few polls from Tennessee. Romney up 1 (42-41).

Tennessee used to be the most liberal state in the South except for Florida. Huge number of undecided respondents. If it is returning to its pre-2000 pattern, then Tennessee bodes ill for Mitt Romney.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Counter-intuitive poll in Tennessee.  It does come from a well-respected university (Vanderbilt), and we get few polls from Tennessee. Romney up 1 (42-41).

Tennessee used to be the most liberal state in the South except for Florida. Huge number of undecided respondents. If it is returning to its pre-2000 pattern, then Tennessee bodes ill for Mitt Romney.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

This is more credible, and I am going with it (registered voters)

Sunday, May 20, 2012
Poll Watch: Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey
Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Poll

    Mitt Romney 47% (42%)
    Barack Obama 40% (39%)

Survey of 756 registered voters was conducted May 2-9, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-22, 2012 are in parentheses.

http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/05/poll-watch-vanderbilt-tennessee-2012.html

This bodes ill for Republicans nationwide. Tennessee is nearly a sure thing for any Republican against President Barack Obama, but I can now imagine the state going by high single digits against him, which is a huge improvement from 2008. I can also imagine the Republicans losing a House seat or two from Tennessee.

[pbrower2a]

No surprise here in Oklahoma (62-27 in favor of Mitt Romney). Nobody needs argue about accuracy here:

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.