Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[krazen1211]

Thread title is wrong. It says 'current polling', not pbrower's limited selection of current polling.

[krazen1211]

North Carolina needs to go blue.

[krazen1211]

Romney has led in Georgia by double digits in at least 2 polls.

[krazen1211]

He forgot to include the latest Purple Poll for Florida.

[krazen1211]

You forgot to count Rasmussen in Wisconsin.

[krazen1211]

You forgot to count Rasmussen in Wisconsin.

It is inconsistent with other polls, including Rasmussen polls, within a week.

Uh, what? Numerous polls during the recalls showed a close result. You just tossed them aside because you didn't like then.

Shrug.


How is it, anyway, that an 'inconsistent' NJ D+27 poll passed this filter?

Added polls:

Survey USA, NC (Obama up 4%)
Rasmussen, NV (Obama up 9%)
Rocky Mountain Poll, AZ (Obama up 2%)
PPP, Texas     (Romney up 7%)
Marquette Law School, WI (Obama up 9%)
PPP, NM (Obama up 14%)
...Democratic internal poll in ND rejected
University of New Hampshire, NH (Obama up 9%)
Rasmussen, MA (Obama up 11%)
Marist, NY (Obama up 22%)
Rutgers University, NJ (Obama up 27%)
Rasmussen, CO (Obama up 13%)
DePauw University, IN (Romney up 9%)
Epic/MRA, MI (Obama up 4%) -- marginally trustworthy
LA Times, USC, CA (Obama up 21%) 
Hendrix University, AR (Romney up 24%) -- right-wing school
Survey USA, OR (Obama up 11%)
Quinnipiac, CT (Obama up 16%)
PPP, MO -- tie
Nielsen Brothers, SD (Romney up 9%)

Two states splitting their electoral votes:
MPRC, Maine 55-37 Obama CD1: 61-33 Obama CD2: 48-41 Obama

PPP, Nebraska Romney up 12% statewide, up 1% in CD2




under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[krazen1211]

Nobody reasonably believes that President Obama is going to be close to losing New Jersey.

Nobody reasonably believes that he will win the state by 27%....except maybe you.

[krazen1211]

When is Michigan turning light blue?

Last 3 polls are tied, Obama +1, Romney +2.

[krazen1211]

How exactly is Virginia colored that way given that the last 3 polls are  D+1, tie, D+2?

[krazen1211]

About 4 states need to go blue based on the latest polls. The latest colorado and wisconsin polls from Graves Marketing, PPP, and Rasmussed have Romney in the lead.

2 more would go blue if you didn't selectively discard the purple poll for having the same attributes as other used polls.

[krazen1211]

About 4 states need to go blue based on the latest polls. The latest colorado and wisconsin polls from Graves Marketing, PPP, and Rasmussed have Romney in the lead.

2 more would go blue if you didn't selectively discard the purple poll for having the same attributes as other used polls.

Wisconsin -- now averaged. Just because one poll appears on Thursday and another on Wednesday does not mean that one picks the Thursday poll. Colorado was averaged into a tie.

There is one in Florida that shows Romney/Ryan up 14.... Something like that is either a new pollster not getting things right at first or a partisan pollster. Mitchell in Michigan has been shown to have problems.

Tomorrow's PPP poll shows Romney in the lead. I'd figure one would average the PPP and rasmussen polls both showing Romney in the lead as both are LV polls and superior to an RV poll.

I'm curious how 'Capital Markets' provides an adequate Virginia Poll while 'Purple Poll' does not.

[krazen1211]

Interesting. If pbrower2a did not arbitrarily exclude some polls, Romneymentum has just won 269 electoral votes.

[krazen1211]

You ignored the poll which shows Romney leading by 4. Your prior ruleset would have that averaged with PPP.

[krazen1211]

You are missing this New Mexico poll.

http://www.nmtelegram.com/2012/09/09/abq-journal-obama-leads-by-5-heinrich-by-7/

[krazen1211]

Virginia is miscolored based on the latest Gravis poll. This map has used Gravis polls before.

[krazen1211]

How does Rasmussen's Colorado poll and Quinnipiac's Colorado poll average to pink?

[krazen1211]

How does Rasmussen's Colorado poll and Quinnipiac's Colorado poll average to pink?

He takes the most recent or atleast credible poll.

Pbrower has at least a dozen times in this thread averaged recent polls, just as he just averaged the recent Wisconsin polls.

+2 Romney and +1 Obama average to +.5 Romney. You can then round that either way, but certainly not to pink.