Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Folks, could y'all take your arguing over what the results will be in November elsewhere?  I actually enjoyed having a thread that only covered the current polling.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Do you just ignore polls from a while back, because I'm certain there has been polls in every green state except Idaho and Wyoming.

This is roughly just the polls since Santorum through in the towel and it became a two person race.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

On the subject of Georgia, the atlas database lists exactly one poll that has been done there since the start of May, and that was registered voter poll by a company for which we have no other polls to compare with to see if it is any good.  It's not as if pbrower's map is showing that Georgia is in any danger of falling into Obama's column.  Pretty much any state that shows up in green or orange can be considered so safe no one is bothering to poll them now.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

To paraphrase Crocodile Dundee:
+  That's not a dagger.
†  That's a dagger!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Look's like Dave's map maker can't handle non-ASCII characters gracefully, so forget about using a proper dagger.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You made a mistake on CT

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Why?  It's fairly clear by now that Akin's gaffe is not having much of an effect beyond his own race.  If this were a Senate polling thread, I could maybe see it, but not for this thread.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Why?  It's fairly clear by now that Akin's gaffe is not having much of an effect beyond his own race.  If this were a Senate polling thread, I could maybe see it, but not for this thread.

The polling's been varying wildly on the presidential level.

I think the Mason-Dixon Poll having Romney up 7 was correct, and it corroborates PPP's Monday poll having Romney up 10. Missouri is Blue.

However, there are also several polls showing the race as a toss-up.

The Rasmussen poll was likely Dem heavy so as to produce a poll that would hopefully get Akin to quit, and the Survey USA poll also had a pronounced Dem tilt. (and a heavy youth tilt).  The other recent poll to show a tossup was by a newbie polling company with no track record.   There's uncertainty over whether Romney is over or under +10% in Missouri (probably under), but none whatsoever as to whether he is over +4%.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If they Obama campaign can get out the youth vote then the election will be a Democratic landslide -- a reverse of the 2010 wave except that the Senate will stay much the same on the net. There just are few opportunities for D pickups in the Senate. 

PB, SUSA's crosstabs for their last Missouri poll require not only a massive youth vote over and above what was seen in 2008, they also require the 65+ crowd stay home and not vote.  There never was a credible poll that showed Missouri close since the Akin gaffe, not one.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You are missing this New Mexico poll.

http://www.nmtelegram.com/2012/09/09/abq-journal-obama-leads-by-5-heinrich-by-7/

More like rightfully ignoring it.  Not much of a track record to judge the firm by, and what little there is suggests a hefty pro-R bias in their numbers.  This poll would seem to indicate that at best Obama has only a high single digit lead, with about a 50-50 chance of a double digit lead.  And that assumes Johnson actually gets 7% of the vote, which is dubious in the extreme (tho not his currently polling that high, as that is t be expected).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You have it right there. I do not post the polls of advocacy groups, special interests, or partisan think tanks.

No reason to think that poll is any of those.  All the available evidence indicates that they aren't very good at political polling, and the groups most likely to be missed in New Mexico polling are also ones that tilt Democratic.