Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[morgieb]

Georgia has been polled, but pbrower doesn't want to include it because it's unfavourable to his desired outcome.

Then why isn't South Carolina included?

[morgieb]

You forgot to count Rasmussen in Wisconsin.

It is inconsistent with other polls, including Rasmussen polls, within a week.

Uh, what? Numerous polls during the recalls showed a close result. You just tossed them aside because you didn't like then.

Shrug.


How is it, anyway, that an 'inconsistent' NJ D+27 poll passed this filter?

Added polls:

Survey USA, NC (Obama up 4%)
Rasmussen, NV (Obama up 9%)
Rocky Mountain Poll, AZ (Obama up 2%)
PPP, Texas     (Romney up 7%)
Marquette Law School, WI (Obama up 9%)
PPP, NM (Obama up 14%)
...Democratic internal poll in ND rejected
University of New Hampshire, NH (Obama up 9%)
Rasmussen, MA (Obama up 11%)
Marist, NY (Obama up 22%)
Rutgers University, NJ (Obama up 27%)
Rasmussen, CO (Obama up 13%)
DePauw University, IN (Romney up 9%)
Epic/MRA, MI (Obama up 4%) -- marginally trustworthy
LA Times, USC, CA (Obama up 21%) 
Hendrix University, AR (Romney up 24%) -- right-wing school
Survey USA, OR (Obama up 11%)
Quinnipiac, CT (Obama up 16%)
PPP, MO -- tie
Nielsen Brothers, SD (Romney up 9%)

Two states splitting their electoral votes:
MPRC, Maine 55-37 Obama CD1: 61-33 Obama CD2: 48-41 Obama

PPP, Nebraska Romney up 12% statewide, up 1% in CD2




under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.01- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Orange -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

Peter Browler's a hack. Don't bother.

[morgieb]

I think Republicans will probably win the Senate, but does that really change much?  Sure, it provides Republicans with good talking points, but without a supermajority nothing is possible.   

If Romney wins I can see them passing a few things through budget reconciliation.