Haha.. So the Democrats win the most recent election, and now you're ready to say GOP won't win again until minorities "assimilate?" That's a pretty big leap, and you seem simply to be relying on minority growth trends to predict the outcome of elections. Did you predict that the Republicans would win the most House seats since 1948 in 2010? You shouldn't have, because those same "minority growth trends" you speak of were in place then. Elections don't take place in vacuums. Yes, minorities (some more than others), lean Democrat. But like Hopper indicated, lots of external factors can effect their vote. Your argument that "we're entering an era of Democratic Presidential dominance seems more like wishful thinking than actual fact when you look at minority turn out and vote in elections as recent as 2010 and 2004.
Seriously? As Mr. Poll Dissector in Chief, I thought you of all people would know that the demographics of midterm elections are whiter and older than general elections, and that given that, those demographic trends "in place" will lose most of their potency in midterms.
Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.
Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.
Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.
You forgot to mention 2000 and 2004 when Bush won most of the Hispanic vote.
Besides, the Hispanic voters are over-estimated since many can't vote since they are not citizens.
I haven't done an in depth study, but the nation wide Hispanic party-voting percentages may often be skewed by the large numbers of that population living in California and New York and voting somewhat accordingly. Also Urban districts play a role etc.
I have a hard time believing that Catholic, intact families, with a work ethic will become a massive monolithic voting block that democrats can take for granted. Given the Obama administration's hostility to the Catholic church, traditional families, and jobs; I don't think they are the panacea you suggest.
Also working class Catholic whites are finally fleeing the democrat party that abandoned them over 35 years ago. I wouldn't ignore that. Trading OH, PA, MI, WI, and MN for CO, NV, and maybe AZ is a net loss of 48 to 59 EV.
How has Obama been hostile to traditional families? What is a traditional family? Do you define it as a having a wife and kids? He has that, and talks lovingly of them every day. Or does supporting gay marriage make you automatically hostile to "traditional families"?
