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| | |-+  Obama beats a federal prisoner by less than 20% in the West Virginia D. Primary.
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Author Topic: Obama beats a federal prisoner by less than 20% in the West Virginia D. Primary.  (Read 3267 times)
Nym90
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« Reply #50 on: May 09, 2012, 04:12:58 pm »
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How did this guy get on the ballot? Is it really easy for anyone to get on the ballot in WV, or did he have wealthy financiers who ponied up the tab in a likely effort to embarass the President?

In any event, joke result, of course, but still a bit disturbing.

But as has been noted, Obama still got far more votes than Romney statewide. Just an FYI for anyone who wants to use this result as somehow predictive of November.
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« Reply #51 on: May 09, 2012, 04:35:14 pm »
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Check this out.

Favorite food: I forgot.

http://votesmart.org/candidate/biography/15574
He was an organizer for the Homeless Peoples Voting Rights Association when he was 10, and founded World Peace Through Musical Communications Skills when he was five.  You have to admit that's impressive.
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« Reply #52 on: May 09, 2012, 04:38:38 pm »
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How did this guy get on the ballot? Is it really easy for anyone to get on the ballot in WV, or did he have wealthy financiers who ponied up the tab in a likely effort to embarass the President?

In any event, joke result, of course, but still a bit disturbing.

But as has been noted, Obama still got far more votes than Romney statewide. Just an FYI for anyone who wants to use this result as somehow predictive of November.

There's a guy a couple of posts above you who thinks Obama won't break 30% in WV, which is...
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ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #53 on: May 09, 2012, 07:36:38 pm »
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Ah, West Virginia...
.....Mountain Mama....
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« Reply #54 on: May 09, 2012, 09:13:53 pm »

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Manchin, who refused to say whether he voted for Obama on Tuesday....

It's a tough decision, considering that Obama's opponent is promising world peace through musical communication skills.

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« Reply #55 on: May 10, 2012, 12:09:45 am »
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Manchin, who refused to say whether he voted for Obama on Tuesday....

It's a tough decision, considering that Obama's opponent is promising world peace through musical communication skills.



Joke senator from joke state.
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« Reply #56 on: May 10, 2012, 12:12:30 am »
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Why is Manchin so lame? Rockefeller is certainly no liberal, but there's a huge ideological gap between the two.
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« Reply #57 on: May 10, 2012, 02:02:44 am »
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I just don't understand why West Virginia is still a democratic state. It seems they would have followed the rest of the south and switched allegiance to the GOP years ago.

Clearly the democratic party has become too progressive for them. Maybe 50 years ago the heart of the party lay in the small towns of West Virginia and the south, but now it resides in places like New England, inner cities and wealthy suburbs. The rest of the south sensed this shift years ago.

Yet, now WV has opted for the awkward position of electing senators and congressman who are almost constantly at odds with the base of the party- so you end up with Senators like Joe Manchin who aren't even sure if they'll vote for his party's nominee for president.

Folks in WV want their democrats to be pro life, anti gay, war hawks, conservative on immigration, fundamentalist christian, and friendly to coal and other big businesses. Now- I think the Democratic party has a big tent, but it's still not big enough to house a democrat like that who would be much more at home with the Republicans.

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« Reply #58 on: May 10, 2012, 03:11:23 am »
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Might Obama have lost this primary post-marriage announcement? lol.
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« Reply #59 on: May 10, 2012, 08:22:08 am »
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WV is unlike the rest of the south because a) it's pro-union, b) lacks racially polarized politics except when imported from a federal level, and c) lacked a well-off suburban or transplant population to form the nucleus of a Republican party.
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« Reply #60 on: May 10, 2012, 09:36:47 am »
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I just don't understand why West Virginia is still a democratic state. It seems they would have followed the rest of the south and switched allegiance to the GOP years ago.

Clearly the democratic party has become too progressive for them. Maybe 50 years ago the heart of the party lay in the small towns of West Virginia and the south, but now it resides in places like New England, inner cities and wealthy suburbs. The rest of the south sensed this shift years ago.

Yet, now WV has opted for the awkward position of electing senators and congressman who are almost constantly at odds with the base of the party- so you end up with Senators like Joe Manchin who aren't even sure if they'll vote for his party's nominee for president.

Folks in WV want their democrats to be pro life, anti gay, war hawks, conservative on immigration, fundamentalist christian, and friendly to coal and other big businesses. Now- I think the Democratic party has a big tent, but it's still not big enough to house a democrat like that who would be much more at home with the Republicans.
WV is unlike the rest of the south because a) it's pro-union, b) lacks racially polarized politics except when imported from a federal level, and c) lacked a well-off suburban or transplant population to form the nucleus of a Republican party.
did their Great-Great-Grandfathers registered them as democrats in about 1868 and no one has bothered to switch? LOL. The Union dynamic is interesting.  These are the people the democrats are orphaning off and the republicans are slowly gobbling them up.         
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« Reply #61 on: May 10, 2012, 09:58:03 am »
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That seems completely reasonable, given that it's barely an increase from 2008.

You Democrats who actually think Obama will improve in West Virginia are beyond delusional.  You're down right loony. 
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« Reply #62 on: May 10, 2012, 10:20:23 am »
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Maps plz?
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« Reply #63 on: May 10, 2012, 10:22:37 am »
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« Reply #64 on: May 10, 2012, 10:24:23 am »
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That seems completely reasonable, given that it's barely an increase from 2008.

You Democrats who actually think Obama will improve in West Virginia are beyond delusional.  You're down right loony. 

They really are.
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« Reply #65 on: May 10, 2012, 10:32:29 am »
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There is ample evidence that Obama will plummet in WV, we just don't know how much.
Gallup lists his approval in WV at 32.7%  That's a 10.5% drop from his vote share just right there.  I think it's likely that WV will have pitiful turnout this November.  Those who are regular Dems who don't like Obama will either vote Romney or stay home most likely

I think he'll probably get around 31% in WV, but win no counties

That seems completely reasonable, given that it's barely an increase from 2008.

You Democrats who actually think Obama will improve in West Virginia are beyond delusional.  You're down right loony. 

They really are.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #66 on: May 10, 2012, 10:35:41 am »
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for what its worth, someone was on TV last night saying that he did well enough to have a delegate pledged to him at the convention.  
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« Reply #67 on: May 10, 2012, 10:47:03 am »
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There is ample evidence that Obama will plummet in WV, we just don't know how much.
Gallup lists his approval in WV at 32.7%  That's a 10.5% drop from his vote share just right there.  I think it's likely that WV will have pitiful turnout this November.  Those who are regular Dems who don't like Obama will either vote Romney or stay home most likely

I think he'll probably get around 31% in WV, but win no counties

That seems completely reasonable, given that it's barely an increase from 2008.

You Democrats who actually think Obama will improve in West Virginia are beyond delusional.  You're down right loony. 

They really are.

You are quite clearly trolling. Yes, turnout will be down. But it's not as if there were that many conservative "Democrats" that voted for Obama in '08 and now have concluded that he didn't live up to his "chance". They didn't vote for him then, and they won't in November. Obama's floor is probably 40% in WV, though he won't be doing much better than that.
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« Reply #68 on: May 10, 2012, 11:09:40 am »
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Bear in mind Boone County was Obama's best county in the state in November 2008. He won it by 11%, and there's no reason he'd do much worse this time.

Also, there's no reason he won't do significantly better in the more urbanized counties.
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« Reply #69 on: May 10, 2012, 11:10:05 am »
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That seems completely reasonable, given that it's barely an increase from 2008.

You Democrats who actually think Obama will improve in West Virginia are beyond delusional.  You're down right loony. 

They really are.

Who in WV who voted for him in 2008 is going to switch to vote for Romney in 2012?

(crickets.)

How many people who were jazzed to vote against him and for McCain-Palin in '08 will have a harder time coming out to vote for Romney?

Possibly larger number.

Now, don't cut this last line out when you quote me - I wouldn't be surprised if Obama did slightly worse, about the same, or slightly better than he did in '08. But I don't think it's bleeding obvious that he's going to do 10+ points worse against a weaker Republican opponent.
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« Reply #70 on: May 10, 2012, 11:11:17 am »
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did their Great-Great-Grandfathers registered them as democrats in about 1868 and no one has bothered to switch? LOL. The Union dynamic is interesting.  These are the people the democrats are orphaning off and the republicans are slowly gobbling them up.         

I don't think they are Civil War-era Democrats, I think it's mostly a 20th century phenomenon. It's more like the Iron Range than like Mississippi (but not much like either.)
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« Reply #71 on: May 10, 2012, 11:39:48 am »
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did their Great-Great-Grandfathers registered them as democrats in about 1868 and no one has bothered to switch? LOL. The Union dynamic is interesting.  These are the people the democrats are orphaning off and the republicans are slowly gobbling them up.         
I don't think they are Civil War-era Democrats, I think it's mostly a 20th century phenomenon. It's more like the Iron Range than like Mississippi (but not much like either.)
I didn't want to imply "Civil War-era Democrats" as much as "POST Civil-war Dems."  They became part of Dixie AFTER the war.  Combine in an early 20th century history of militant Unionism and no organic local GOP.

You could say it's All About Coal
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/05/09/west-virginia-vote-was-all-about-coal/?mod=google_news_blog
but, I think it's more complicated.  "Coal" actually simplifies pretty complex issues now that I think about it. 

They apparently have no real state GOP party.  Thus, the state dem party maneuvers into the best position it can, which to an outsider looks like the GOP platform.  Odd Quarks for sure.  Kind of like a time warp / twilight zone.  West Virginia would probably be more like Kentucky if Coal and Union(history) wasn't so dominant.   
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« Reply #72 on: May 10, 2012, 11:48:36 am »
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Also, why would Obama be doing worse in West Virginia if he's doing better in Kentucky?
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« Reply #73 on: May 10, 2012, 02:41:19 pm »
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Also, why would Obama be doing worse in West Virginia if he's doing better in Kentucky?

You're absolutely right. Because of Romney being a big-business elitist Republican, Obama will likely gain 5% in all the Southern states, especially considering all of his policies have been very beneficial to Southern voters (Just look at how the economy down there has blossomed in the past 3 years!). Romney will still probably win West Virginia, but it'll only be by a couple percentage points, not the landslide delusionalists are saying.

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« Reply #74 on: May 10, 2012, 03:48:05 pm »
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did their Great-Great-Grandfathers registered them as democrats in about 1868 and no one has bothered to switch? LOL. The Union dynamic is interesting.  These are the people the democrats are orphaning off and the republicans are slowly gobbling them up.         

I don't think they are Civil War-era Democrats, I think it's mostly a 20th century phenomenon. It's more like the Iron Range than like Mississippi (but not much like either.)


The only difference being that voters in the iron range still came out for Obama and supported him about as much as any other democratic presidential candidate. Obama still dominated this region in 2008 and there was no swing against him as there was in WV.

WV Coal and MN Iron democrats may be similar, but only one group wasn't terrified by the color of his skin and his name.
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